【作者】 朱柯丁；

【导师】 谭忠富；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 技术经济及管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 21世纪,随着全球经济的发展,石油、煤炭等化石能源逐渐耗竭,环境污染及温室效应加剧,能源危机与环境保护成为实现可持续发展面临的焦点问题,中国作为能源生产和消费大国,一次能源的储量低于世界水平,而能源需求却不断增长,面临严峻的能源供应短缺问题和环境保护压力。节能减排的实施成为我国缓解能源危机与环境压力的迫切需求,电力工业火电占其发电总量的70%以上,每年消耗煤炭占全国煤炭总消耗量的一半以上,为能源消耗和污染排放的主要产业,其节能减排措施的执行对我国节能减排的实施有重要作用。电网企业作为售电侧与发电侧的中间环节将同时面临节能减排措施在发电侧和用户侧开展所产生的经营风险,参照电网企业的经营活动可将其经营风险分为购电环节风险、售电环节风险和投资环节风险。本文针对节能减排通过政策变动给电网购电、售电和投资各方面带来的经营风险进行研究,完成的主要工作概况如下：(1)介绍了风险管理理论,阐述了风险事件的特征、分类及风险管理的阶段特征及电网企业风险的识别、度量和防控方法,并总结了电力节能减排政策。(2)针对节能减排政策下的电网购电风险进行研究。对节能调度政策下,电网企业省内购电类型风险和区域购电分布风险进行评估。在节能调度优化模型的基础上,重点对省内各机组类型的利用小时数、购电均价、购电成本的变化建立了度量模型；在区域电网节能调度优化模型的基础上,对区域购电分布比例变动带来的电网购电成本变动建立了度量模型；构建了煤炭价格波动—发电运行成本—上网电价—电网利润风险传递关系链,对煤炭价格波动风险进行度量与防控策略研究；对风电与光伏发电并网带来的电网收益风险进行度量。(3)针对电网售电环节的节能减排效益及经营风险进行研究。构建了分时电价对平均售电价格变动影响的度量模型与发电侧分时电价联动防控模型；分析了分类用户的电价及电量变动对平均售电价变动影响,并测算分类用户电价及电量的影响因数及综合影响因数；对力率调整电费的变动因素进行了分解并分析了线损-收益之间的关系；构建了大用户直供电风险度量模型；对自备电厂风险进行了度量并构建了补偿费用征收模型；分别针对分时电价、分类电价、功率因数和线损管理的节能减排效益进行分析。在上述对电网企业分时电价风险、分类电价风险、力率电费风险、线损管理风险、大用户直供电风险和自备电厂风险等售电风险及节能减排效益定量分析的基础上,提出相应防控策略。(4)针对电网投资环节风险进行研究。构建电网企业利润、自有资金平衡和负债率计算模型,从还本付息的角度对电网企业的投资能力分析进行度量；通过容载比指标对电网投资时机风险进行度量,并对电网发展协调性风险进行分析。在此基础上给出了电网企业投资风险防控策略,为电网企业的投资规划、特高压投资、电源投资等风险评估提供依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 In 21 century, there is great heat on environment pollution and greenhouse effect as the global economic developes, and energy crises and envirionmental stresses have become the focal point problem. As one of the major productors and consumers of energy,China’s primary energy reserves is lower than world’s level, while its energy demand is increasing, as a result there is severe energy crises and envirionmental stresses for china’s economy sustainable development. Energy conservation and emission reduction will be a significant method to relilve the problem, and Electry power industry,70% of which is thermal power, is one of the highest energy consumption industries as almost one half of the whole country’s coal consumption is consumed by this industry every year, and plays a important role for the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction policies.Power Grid Company, as the intermediate link of electricity saling and generating, faces management risks caused by energy conservation and emission reduction measures carried out in operation links of power-purchasing、power-saling and investment of the power grid, and meanwhile has important influences for the successful actualization of the polices. The paper does reserches on the management risks of grid’s power-purchasing, power sale and investment caused by energy conservation and emission reduction polices. The main finished work and innovations of this paper is as follows:Firstly, general risk management theory in introduced. The characteristics and classifications of the risk event, the developing stages of the risk management, and the theories of Power Grid Companies’risk identification, risk assessment and risk control are illustrated. Then the polices of energy conservation and emission reduction in power industry are summarized.Secondly, manegement risks of grid’s power purchase under the policies of energy conservation and emission reduction measures are researched. Under the dispatching policy for energy conservation, Grid’s power purchasing risks form different typies of power inside the province and different regional distributions are evaluated. On the base of dispatching optimization model for energy conservation, measurement models for the power-purchasing average price changes caused by retired units, power-purchaing costs changes caused by new units and changes of units’utilization hours are built. On the base of dispatching optimization model for energy conservation in regional grid, measurement models for power-purchasing costs in different purchasing proportion of the power inside and outside the province are built. The chain for risk transitivity from coal price, power-generating costs, power-purchasing costs,to the income and profit of the power grid company are found, and measurement and control strategies of the coal price changes risks are researched. Return-risks caused by grid integration of the wind power and PV power are measured.Thirdly, management risks and benefit of energy conservation and emission reduction in grid’s power sale link are researched. Measurement models for the influence of TOU price to the average price and control models by constructing the power generating linking TOU price are built. the influence of the electricity prices and quantities of different classifications to the electricity-saling average price are analyzed and their influence indicators and synthetical indicator are estimated. changes of Power factor adjustment charge are resolved and relationship of line loss and profit are analyzed. Besides, measurement models for the risk of direct power supply to large power end-users, and for the risk from captive power plant are built, and the compensation charged model for captive power plant is also given. on the base of the quantitative analysis of Power grid companies’sale risks, including TOU tariff risks, electricity categories tariff risk, Power factor adjustment charge risk, line loss risk, large power end-users and captive power plant risk, and benefit of energy conservation and emission reduction, this paper puts forward appropriate control strategies for all risks.Lastly, management risks of grid’s investment are researched. Power grid company’s profit model, equity fund banlance model and liability model are built to measure the investment ability, the investment timing is measured by the indicator of capacity load ratio, and the grid development coordination risks are analyzed. On the base of the models and analysis, the paper gives the risk control strategies for the investment of the power grid company, and provides theoretical reference to the grid investments such as investment plan, UHV investment and so on.更多还原