【作者】 齐银山；

【导师】 李文兴；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 产业经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 石油是人类社会的宝贵财富,是国家经济发展和人民日常生活都不可或缺的重要能源和化工品原材料来源,同时,也正是因为这种重要性,石油挑起过许多的战事和是非。纵观近几十年的世界经济发展史,石油已经成为世界各大国之间进行经济、政治、军事斗争的重要武器,也成为了许多地区的冲突和战争的直接导火线。世界石油市场的风吹草动,尤其是石油价格的波动,越来越成为各国政府和石油相关产业界关注的焦点。自从1993年我国成为石油净进口国后,我国石油的进口数量和对外依存度都不断攀升。近年来,国际石油价格出现了罕见的巨大波动,对我国的经济发展也产生了显著的冲击。国家经济安全是指国家的根本经济利益不受国内外因素破坏和干扰,国家经济持续健康发展的态势。石油价格的波动影响着国家经济稳定发展的状态,同时也影响着国家稳定获取发展资源的能力,根据国家经济安全概念的内涵和外延,我们可以认为,石油价格的波动与我国经济安全有着密切的关系。本文旨在研究两者之间的关系,深入探讨国际石油价格的波动与我国经济安全之间的错综复杂的联系。国家经济安全本身就是一个复杂的、多维度的、多元化的概念,它与石油价格波动之间的关系研究必然也涉及到经济、金融、政治、管理等多个领域。因此,本文的研究也采用系统化、多角度、定量化的思路,试图从多个方向和路径来理清石油价格波动与我国经济安全之间的内在联系。本文的意义一方面可以为我国的石油定价机制提供合理建议,另一方面可以为平滑石油价格波动对我国经济的冲击影响提供有针对性的策略,从而保证我国经济健康、持续、平稳地增长。本文在大量文献和事实的研究归纳基础上,分析得出国际石油价格波动与我国经济安全的关系表现,主要体现在石油价格波动对经济安全中的经济总量增长、产业安全、金融财政安全三个方面的冲击；之后,具体分析得出一系列传导路径及相应的传导机制,包括石油价格形成机制和波动机制、国际石油价格向国内传导的路径及机制、国内石油价格波动在国民经济具体部门中的传导路径及机制和石油价格波动对国家净出口额的传导机制；然后,将这些传导路径和机制整合起来,构建了一个国际石油价格波动对我国经济安全影响的传导模型,定性描述国际石油价格波动和经济安全各具体指标参数之间的关系；之后,用数量经济学的方法和投入产出分析法等来对该模型进行实证研究,证明了该模型的有效性,并完善了模型的定量关系部分；最后,在以上分析的基础上,从供给、需求、价格等方面提出应对石油价格波动而应该采取的措施和建议。本文的创新点内容如下：(1)本文系统性地、多角度地研究了国际石油价格波动与我国经济安全之间的关系。由于国家经济安全本身就是一个复杂的、多维度的、多元化的概念,因此,本文从经济安全的主要内容切入,将抽象的经济安全的概念与较具体的指标相联系,确定了经济总量增长幅度、产业和市场安全、金融财政安全这几个角度,界定了本文所要研究的系统的边界范围。从这三个角度出发,本文归纳出国际石油价格的波动对我国经济总量增长幅度、产业和市场、金融财政都有着显著的冲击,且存在着一定的联动规律。(2)本文分析得出国际石油价格波动对我国经济安全影响的具体路径及相应的联动机制。首先分析了国际石油价格的形成机制和波动机制；然后通过对我国石油定价政策原理的分析,得到了国内外石油价格的联动机制；之后,分析当国内石油价格跟随国际石油价格上涨之后,国民经济中各产业成本和价格的相应联动,以及由此带来的消费和投资的联动；最后,再分析油价波动对净出口额变化的联动机制。(3)本文构建了较系统的国际石油价格波动对经济安全影响的传导结构模型,并采用协整分析法和投入产出分析法证实了该模型的有效性,并完善了模型的定量关系部分。建立模型之后,本文还使用数学工具,环环相扣地证实了模型的有效性。先证实了国内外石油价格的联动机制；又证实了国内石油价格上升对国民经济中各产业成本和价格的提升作用；最后证实了国际石油价格和之前我们设定的模型因变量的具体关系。本文的研究虽然从多个角度分析了石油价格波动与经济安全的关系,但是是基于经济安全的三个主要指标的,因此在构建更全面的经济安全指标方面,还有许多研究工作可以进行。并且为了减少模型预测中的数据误差,相关参数的设置和调整还需要进一步的研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 ABSTRACT:Oil is a kind of non-renewable and rare sources which relates to China sustainable economic growth and strategies. With the rapid development of China’s economy, the demand for oil increases sharply which activates the contradiction between demand and supply. Besides, oil price usually changes intensively and the oil industry belongs to the upper industry, the fluctuation of oil price would probably affect the economic growth. According to the concept of national economic security—the connotation and extension, we believe that the volatility of oil prices and Chinese economic security are closely related.In order to understand the relationship between international oil price fluctuations and the China’s economic security, smooth the oil price effect in economic growth, and ensure the stable and healthy development of our economy, based on abundant documents and facts, we derive the transmission mechanism how international oil price fluctuations affect China’s economic security, and build a model which qualitatively describe the relationship between international oil price fluctuations and the specific indicators of economic security. The model manifests the transmission processes in a clear, intuitionistic and detailed way. The model simplifies the forecasting process of the oil price effect to the economic security. Therefore, it is a practical model. Then, using mathematical methods and input-output method, we prove the validity of the model, and improve the quantitative relationship among the several parts of the model. At the end of the thesis, on the basis of the theoretical and empirical research of the former, we provide the corresponding countermeasures to reduce the influences of international oil price fluctuations on Chinese macroeconomy. These measures are reforming oil pricing system, establishing national strategic oil reserve system, developing oil futures market, and enforcing oil alternative strategy, and so on.The innovative points of this paper are as follows:(1) In this paper, we have an academic, systematic and multi-angle study up on the relation between the fluctuation of the oil price and national economic security. We combine the abstract concept of NES for who is complicated, dimensional and diversified with concretized indicators, defining this problem from the angles of increasing amplitude of economic aggregate, industry and market’s security, financial security. According to our data collecting, we believe that oil price’s variation should have an obvious impact on those angles mentioned, also the inherent law to a certain degree.(2) After analyzing the price variation we obtain the path of its effects’diffusion and resonance system. On the basis of casual sequence of its tract:internal oil industries accept the effect from external price variation, the delivered to other related industries, leading to the change of whole social economy. At the same time, the variation could exert an influence to total import and export value, both two sides consist the main theme. In detail, firstly we study the international oil price’s formation and its fluctuation; secondly we achieve the resonance of pricing system in accordance with domestic policy; then we analyze the results of inflation (rise of cost, investment&consumption etc.); at last, we analyze the impact on net exports caused by the price increase.(3) During our study and research, we design a clear model which concerns the influence of oil price’s variation to economic security. With certain mathematical tools we can prove model’s availability. This model indicates the way in which the fluctuations of the global oil price affectes national economic security, makes it easier to predicate the influence of the variation, which is practical to some extent. Having designed a model, we prove its availability with some mathematic tools step by step. Moreover, we have found something additional that can’t be reflected in this model during our research.This research is based on three main indicators of economic security, so there is a lot of work can be done in building more comprehensive indicators of economic security. And in order to reduce the data error in the prediction of the model, the settings and adjustments of relevant parameters still need further study.更多还原