【作者】 黄建玲；

【导师】 施仲衡；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 道路与铁道工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 我国城市轨道交通已进入高速发展时期,作为缓解城市交通拥堵问题的重要手段,城市轨道交通越来越受到各政府部门的重视。在城市轨道交通领域内,客流是城市轨道交通规划、设计、建设、运营等各个环节的基本依据,客流预测是决定轨道交通线网规划、工程项目建设时序、轨道交通系统规模和系统运营效益等轨道交通重大决策问题的基础,客流预测的合理性对城市轨道交通规划、建设和运营都有着十分重要的作用。然而,从国内已运营城市轨道交通的实际情况看,普遍存在实际客流与预测客流差异较大,线路客流严重不均衡的局面。有的线路的实际客流提前达到或远远超过预测客流,有的却仅是预测客流的15-20%,这些都给实际运营造成了很大困难。因此,非常有必要在轨道交通开通运营后,对实际客流进行细致分析,找出实际客流与预测结果偏差较大的原因,并为实际工作提供改进建议。这项工作被称为客流的后评估。通过分析挖掘客流的发展规律及特征,建立客流后评估方法和体系,对城市轨道交通的健康可持续发展具有重大意义。论文以客流后评估为研究对象,按照发现问题、分析问题、研究规律、提出方法、实例计算、解决建议这样的主线展开了逐步研究。论文首先明确了城市轨道交通客流的内涵,深入分析了客流的各种影响因素,并找出了影响客流的关键因素,对客流的影响因素进行了量化,分析了其参数构成和取值原则。同时研究了目前城市轨道交通客流自身的不确定性,定性分析了造成预测客流与实际客流相差较大的原因。在此基础上,为了定量研究客流偏差较大的深层次原因,以国内外大城市为研究对象,系统性地深入研究归纳城市轨道交通客流的普遍特征和成长规律,并以北京的实际数据为基础,具体研究了北京城市轨道交通的客流规律和特征,为下一步建立后评估方法体系建立了基础。为了提高客流后评估工作的可操作性和科学性,首次创新性地建立了城市轨道交通客流后评估体系,包括后评估的内涵、方法、步骤、内容等。同时,将客流后评估分为总量后评估和构成后评估。提出了基于城市人口、居民出行强度、交通方式分担率三大要素的城市轨道交通客流总量后评估模型。给出了包括全日指标、高峰指标和其他指标3大类17个指标的城市轨道交通客流构成后评估的指标体系。在前述理论研究的基础上,论文以北京地铁5号线为对象完成了一个城市轨道交通客流后评估工程实例。首先用实际数据进行了北京城市轨道交通客流的总量后评估,发现评估计算结果和实际数据虽然有所偏差,但趋势非常吻合,其主要原因是对人口数据的统计缺陷,证明了总量后评估模型的可用性和可靠性。然后分别计算了北京地铁5号线的各项客流构成后评估指标,发现部分指标偏差较大,并对其原因进行了细致分析。最后给出了北京地铁5号线的后评估结论。为了能够给实际工作提供指导,论文最后还系统给出了对实际工作应对客流偏差较大问题的指导建议,包括四大方而：对客流预测的改进建议、对城市交通规划工作的改进建议、对轨道交通运营管理工作的改进建议、对枢纽乘客集散矛盾的优化方法建议及应用。由于对客流的后评估研究较少,绝大多数的后评估是对项目进行经济性评价,本论文属于在城市轨道交通客流后评估领域的首次探索,研究尚需要进一步扩展和深入。但是,研究从客流偏差较大的现象出发,跳出了分析客流预测“不准”的狭隘,直接分析客流的本质特征,对准确掌握客流规律和特征,指导各项实际工作都具有开创性意义。论文提出的后评估体系和理论框架,对后来研究者也能发挥一点借鉴作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 URT (Urban Rail Transit) has entered a period of rapid development in China, which is an important way to resolve the urban traffic congestion on the ground and has attached more and more attention from every government. Passenger flow is the fundamental basis for planning, design, construction and all other procedures of the URT, and passenger flow forecast is the basis to make strategic decisions for URT, such as the design of rail transit network, the construction timing of engineering projects, the scale and operational efficiency of URT system. These show that available forecast of passenger flow plays an important role in the design, construction and operation of URT. However, the real condition is very different from what we forecast. It is much crowed in the rush hour and very deserted in other time; in some subway lines, the actual passenger number is larger than the forecasted, but in some others, it is just fifteen percent to twenty percent of the forecasted number. All of these bring big troubles in actual operation of URT system. So it is very necessary to analyze the real passenger flow carefully, find out the reason existed in the huge difference between the real and the predicted passenger flow and provide some suggestion for the actual work. In a word, it’s significant for the healthy and sustainable development of URT to explore the development rule and features of passenger flow, build the post-assessment methods and system of passenger flow.The passenger post-assessment (PPA) was regarded as the study object in this thesis. The study was made in the order of finding problems, analyzing problems, studying regularity, bringing up the methods, giving examples, solving problems and proposing to gradually research. Firstly, the definition of the passenger flow of URT was given in this thesis and all factors which affect the passenger flow was analyzed, and then picked out the most important factor. And the critical factors were quantized based on the parameter form and value principle. Finally, the uncertainty in passenger flow of URT was researched, and the reasons about the huge difference existed in the predicted passenger flow and the actual were qualitatively analysised. Thirdly, at home and abroad metropolises became the study objects for quantitative research on the further reasons of these deviations to systematic in-depth study and conclude the universal rules and features of passengers flow of URT and research the rules and characteristics of passengers flow of URT in Beijing, which is the foundation of next step about the post-assessment methods and system of passenger flow. In order to improve actionability and scientificity, the passenger post-assessment(PPA) System was raised innovatively in the first time, which includes the concept and connotation of PPA. In this system, PPA was divided into the overall passenger post-assessment and the passenger structure post-assessment, then PPA model was put forward based on 3 elements, which include urban population element, residents travel intensity element and the traffic share element. What’s more, PPA indicators system was given, which contains 3 categories and 17 indicators in the indicators system, such as the all day indicators, peak indicators and others.Based on the previous theoretical study, an example about Beijing Subway Line 5 PPA was given. At first, an overall passenger post-assessment was made using the actual data. Even though the actual date and the predicted date show some difference, they have the same tendency. In our opinion, the main reason lies in the statistics imperfection to the population number. In this way, the reliability and the feasibility about PPA were proved. Then every PPA indicators on the subway line 5 was calculated respectively and the careful analyst was made according to the huge different result in some indicator. Finally, the Beijing Subway Line 5 PPA conclusions were given. What’s more, in order to offer recommendations for the practical work, comprehensive suggestions were made in this thesis, which have four aspects, including improving the passenger flow prediction, raising urban transport planning, increasing rail operations management and optimizing proposals of passenger congregation & distraction and application in URT hubs.Because of the shortage of post-assessment studies on the passenger flow, the vast majority of the post-assessment was economic assessment to the projects, this is the first time to research the PPA of URT in China, which means it need further research. However, this study derivate from the phenomenon of large passenger flow deviations, cast off the inaccuracy of passenger forecast, analyze the passenger character directly, which had pioneering significance both in catching the passenger flow regular pattern and characteristic and in guiding the practical work. All in all, the Post-assessment system and its theoretical framework were raised in this paper, and I believe it could provide a reference for the later researchers.更多还原