【作者】 王艳秀；

【导师】 尹小平；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 世界经济， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 在贸易自由化迅速发展的今天,面对经济危机,贸易保护主义的思潮仍可以轻松地掀起如此大的波澜,这提醒我们必须保持足够的警惕性。在具有代表性的美国贸易保护历史发展进程中,对美国贸易保护的动因和效应进行系统地研究,可以更加深刻地揭示美国贸易保护兴起的本质与内在驱动力,为中国应对贸易保护主义提供可行性建议,确保中国对外贸易的平稳发展。以往贸易保护的主要理论因关注点不同提出了不同的论点和论据,在已有的文献和分析成果的基础上,结合美国的实际情况建立新的理论分析框架,可以进一步拓展对美国贸易保护动因和效应的研究。从贸易保护主要理论的演进入手,研究不同历史背景下贸易保护的出发点和效果等问题,对贸易保护的理论主要论点进行梳理,从时代背景、动因及效应等方面进行归纳与总结,以此作为美国贸易保护动因与效应研究的逻辑线索和依据。在考察美国经济实力的变化和世界贸易体制等背景的基础上,按照历史的逻辑,分析美国贸易保护发展的历史背景和演进特点,主要立足于美国贸易政策的演进变化与美国在世界经济中实力和地位变化的相关关系进行分析,研究自美国建国以来不同时期的主要贸易政策和主要的贸易措施,为贸易保护动因及效应的实证分析的展开奠定基础。然后,以贸易保护主义的“国家干预”思想作为出发点,从意识形态影响的角度,研究民族主义、国家主义对美国贸易政策取向的影响。在从理论视角证明民族主义、国家主义思想从意识形态角度影响人们的贸易保护主义倾向,之后,在实践中考察美国贸易保护中民族主义、国家主义对个人偏好的影响,研究发现维护民族利益、国家利益是贸易保护倾向的主要内在驱动力。在此基础上,选择贸易政策制定的供求机制为分析框架,再对美国贸易保护政策中利益集团的影响机制和效果进行分析。按照贸易政策制定的供求机制,研究美国贸易保护政策制定的政治动机、过程、机制和结果。研究发现,美国的主要利益集团在美国贸易政策的制定过程中对贸易保护的强度和对象选择等起了重要的影响。通过上述理论和实践研究证实,维护国家利益是美国贸易保护主义的内在驱动力和主要动因,由于政治和经济的利益等因素的影响,贸易政策的实施与最终目标往往不与追求国家福利最大化的目标相一致。从宏观经济视角,以贸易保护理论中的“保护贸易”核心论点为依据,以经济波动为线索,研究美国贸易保护的发展特点和波动原因及绩效。首先根据经济波动的相关主要理论和利用主要相关指标,构建美国经济波动的长期趋势模型,之后研究贸易量变化与经济波动间的协同变动关系,以及贸易保护的波动特点。研究认为,随着美国经济实力的提高,贸易保护措施呈现隐蔽性发展,贸易保护手段和方式愈加灵活。通过理论分析和以反倾销的实证分析——泊松回归模型的定量和定性研究证实,GDP增长率、失业率、通货膨胀率和贸易收支平衡情况与贸易保护的波动存在内在的关联性,它们是贸易保护波动的主要动因,且这些指标达到一定水平时贸易保护兴起或加深的风险会增加,但美国贸易保护效应的研究结果表明:美国贸易保护政策对改善国家整体就业水平和贸易收支状况无明显正效果,可是,其示范作用的负面影响非常明显。从贸易保护理论中“产业保护”的相关论点出发,以产业竞争力研究线索,考察贸易保护的特点变化与产业竞争力变化的相关关系及贸易保护的效应。根据产业竞争力理论,分析贸易壁垒对产业竞争力影响的作用机制,选择产业竞争力的评价指标——贸易竞争指数进行定量和定性分析,研究美国贸易保护壁垒的产业分布特点。在产业贸易保护的实证分析中,从产业的影响力和地位以及产业中贸易保护存续的时间考虑,选取了农业和钢铁业作为研究对象,通过贸易竞争指数等指标验证了贸易保护强度的变化与产业竞争力强弱变化之间的存在内在的关联性。最后,从产业“干中学”效应和贸易保护的福利效应评析贸易保护的效果,研究结论认为,贸易保护成本和贸易保护效果存在不对称性,产业的贸易保护需要付出巨大的经济成本且有损国民福利。从贸易保护理论中“保护环境”的论点出发,以环境保护的角度,考察美国绿色壁垒的主要措施与效果。从国际环境保护的趋势、贸易壁垒与环境保护措施的耦合关系等角度,从理论和实践上分析的结果显示:绿色壁垒的产生本质上就是具有保护主义色彩的。在此基础上,对美国绿色壁垒的主要措施分析后,分别从环保效果和保护主义效果研究绿色壁垒的效应。第一,以环境成本内在化为主线,研究绿色壁垒的保护效果,结果显示:美国的绿色壁垒的实质是在维护本国的利益,碳关税的提出也不例外,美国的污染的减少是以其他国家的福利损失或环境污染为代价的,再次验证贸易保护的内在根源之一是要维护国家利益的结论。第二,归纳绿色壁垒的保护主义效应,研究结果得出,美国主要借环境保护的名义,变相实行贸易保护的目的,妨碍其他国家的出口贸易。通过上述经济波动、产业竞争力和环境保护效果等多视角研究美国贸易保护的动因与效应,验证出贸易保护理论的结果与实际效应之间是存在偏差的。这些问题的研究有助于对国际贸易中产生的新问题进行深入的研究,揭示其本质。依据前面的分析结果和涉及的主要经济指标,对美国贸易保护措施针对中国产业的分布特点进行分析。最后,根据中国所面临的贸易保护主义整体情况,结合中国的实际情况提出可行性的政策性建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Study on motives and effects of U.S. trade protectionToday with the rapid development of trade liberalization, it is so much easier that trade protectionism set off waves when facing economic crisis, as reminds us maintaining sufficient vigilance. During the process of development of representative U.S trade protection, the study on motives and effects of U.S. trade protection can deeply reveal the nature and internal driving force of the rise of trade protection, so as to provide the feasible suggestions coping with trade protectionism and ensure the stable development of Chinese foreign trade.Due to different concerns of the main arguments, the main theory of trade protection in the past put forward corresponding arguments and evidence. We can establish new theoretical analytic framework combined with the actual situation in the United States and make further study on the U.S. motives and effects of trade protection, on the basis of the existing literature and analysis. From the perspective of the evolution of main theory of trade protection, we can study on relative issues of the starting point and the effects under different backgrounds, and sort out the theory of the main arguments, and conclude and induct the aspects of background, motives and effects, etc. Above All of these are as the logic clue and evidence.On the basis of the inspection to changes of the strength of U.S. economy and world trade system, the analysis to the background and the evolutionary characteristics of U.S. trade protection is mainly based on the relationship between the evolution of U.S. trade policy and the strength and status development of U.S. trade protection, according to the logic of history. The research on main trade policy and measures under different periods from the establishment of the country provide foundation to the empirical analysis to the trade protection motives and effects.Then, starting with trade protectionism with "state intervention" thoughts, from the perspective of the ideological impact, we study the impact of nationalism to U.S. trade policy orientation. As proved from the theoretical perspective, nationalism and the state ideology influence the trade protection orientation. After that, we inspect the impact of nationalism to individual preference, and find that the benefit of nation and country be the interior driven power of trade protection orientation. Then on this basis, supply and demand mechanism is chosen as the trade policy-making framework, and analysis is made to the mechanism and effects of benefit group during U.S. trade policy-making. We study on political motives, processes, mechanisms and results of U.S. trade policy, in accordance with supply and demand mechanism during the formulation of trade policy. The study finds that main interest groups in the United States affect the strength and the choice of object in the course of trade policy in the United States.Through the above theoretical and practical research, the safeguard of national interests is the internal driven power and main motives. Due to the factors of political and economic interests, the implementation of trade policy and the final objective is not always with the objective to the maximization of national welfare.From macroeconomic perspective, we study the development of U.S. trade protection and performance characteristics and the reasons for fluctuations of trade protection, with the core argument of "Protection of Trading" as the evidence, and the economic fluctuations as the clue. First, we establish long-term trend fluctuation model on U.S. economic fluctuation on the basis of main theories related to economic fluctuations and main relevant indicators, and then make analysis to the cooperative movements relationship between the changes of trade amount and economic fluctuations, and the features of trade protection. Research demonstrates that: with the increasing strength of U.S. economy, trade protection measures shows hidden development, and trade protection measures and methods become more flexible. In the way of Poisson regression models through quantitative and qualitative analysis, GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, trade balance of payments situation and trade protection have the inherent volatility, all of which are the main motives of fluctuations, and make the rise of trade protection or increased risk up to a certain extent. Therefore, the research results of U.S. trade protection effects demonstrates that: U.S. trade protection policies has no significantly positive effect to improve the level of employment and trade balance nationwide, and that its negative impact as demonstration role is very obvious.From the perspective of protection from "industry protection" point in trade theory, we inspect the relationship between the characteristics of trade protection and industrial competitiveness and the effect of protection. According to industry competitiveness theory, we make quantitative and qualitative analysis to the mechanism of trade barriers to industrial competitiveness, and the research on industry distribution characteristics of U.S. trade protection barriers. In the empirical analysis to trade protection on industry, considering the influence and status of industry and the sustenance of trade protection, agricultural and steel industry are selected as the research object, and the inherent correlation between the degree of trade protection and the industrial competitiveness is verified through trade competition index and other indicators. Finally, we make analysis to the effects of trade protection, through the "learning by doing" effect of industry and the welfare effects of trade protection. The conclusion is that asymmetry exists between the cost and the effects of trade protection, and the trade protection on industry pay huge economic cost and do damage to national welfare.From the viewpoint of "protection of environment”of trade protection theory, U.S. green barrier measures and effects are inspected from the perspective of environmental protection. From the perspective of international trend of environmental protection and coupled relationship between environmental protection and the trade barriers, the result of theoretical and empirical analysis demonstrates that the generation of green barriers have protectionism colors in nature. On this basis, after the analysis to the main green barriers of the United States, the effects of green barriers are studied from perspective of effects of environmental protection and protectionism respectively. First, with the main line of internalization of environmental costs, the protective effect of green barriers is studied, and the results demonstrate: The essence of U.S. green barriers is to maintain national interests, without exception of carbon tariffs. The reduction of pollution in the United States is in the cost of the loss of other country’s welfare or environmental pollution of them, and conclusion of the underlying causes of trade protection to maintain national interests is proven again. Second, the protectionism effects of green barriers is inducted, and the results obtained: United States implement trade protection on purpose of trade protectionism mainly in the name of environmental protection, to harm the export trade of other countries.Through study on the motives and effects of U.S. trade protection from multi-angle of economic fluctuations, industrial competitiveness and environmental protection and so on, the existence of the bias between the theory and the actual effect can be verified. These studies contribute to deeply researching on the new international trade issues to reveal its essence.On the basis of previous analytic results and the main relevant economic indicators, we make analysis to the characteristics of Chinese industries involved in the range of U.S. trade protection. Finally, based on the whole situation faced by China of the protectionism, we put forward the feasible policies combined with actual situation of our country.更多还原