【作者】 张怀坤；

【导师】 纪玉山；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 西方经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 近年来,全球气候变暖给人类生产生活带来了很多负面影响,其中对农业的影响最为深刻。作为人类赖以生存和发展的基础性产业,农业具有生态脆弱性特征,气候变暖及其极端性气候灾害极易导致农产品减产、粮食有效供给不足,从而引发一系列经济、生态和社会问题。那么,在全球变暖背景下,如何保持农业发展的可持续性,规避气候变暖的负外部性,对经济社会健康、可持续发展具有重要的战略意义。在梳理国内外相关文献的基础上,本文以农业可持续发展为切入点,在马克思主义经济思想指导下,结合农业经济学、生态经济学、环境伦理学以及现代西方经济学基本理论,分析全球变暖背景下现代农业发展存在的问题,探索其运行的规律性,进而提出对策建议,以期促进我国农业健康、稳定和持续发展。农业可持续发展就是在农业发展过程中既满足当代人的需要,又不损害后代人满足其需要的发展为特征,最终实现经济发展、生态保护与社会进步的统一。全球变暖对于农业可持续发展系统的影响,首先表现在对农业资源环境子系统的影响,进而对农业生产系统以及其他子系统产生连锁性影响。全球气候变暖给农业生产注入了更多的不确定性,从而不可避免地增加了农业生产的风险度。为此,本文提出了全球变暖条件下促进农业可持续发展的三种模式,即农业旱作节水模式、农业有机发展模式以及农业碳汇发展模式。在政策研究方面,本文认为,要通过转变农业生产方式、树立可持续发展理念、优化农业经济结构和实行政策激励机制等措施的综合推进,应对全球气候变暖所带来的影响,保障农业可持续发展模式的实现。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the industrial civilization, human has been large-scale using of fossil fuels, discharging carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, which leading to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and causing global warming.The expression of global warming, from the ecological point of view, are as follows: The earth’s average temperature continues to rise, frequent occurrence of extreme weather events; from the agricultural economics point of view are as follows: reduction of food production ,price rising of agricultural production and unstable foundation of economic and social development issuesThus, under the conditions of global warming, study on the sustainable agricultural development is of great theoretical and practical significance in the changing of agricultural development pattern , promoting the internalization of external problems of climate warming and protecting of national food security. This paper will study the issue of sustainable agricultural development on the background of climatic warming under the guidance of Marx ecological theory and the concept of sustainable developmentChapterⅠIntroduction. Agriculture is the foundation of economic and social development, also is the source of the industrial chain. To increase the green agricultural production and achieve sustainable agricultural development is of a very far-reaching practical significance for the whole community. However, the most direct impact of is on the agriculture. Through collecting of the theory about the issues of global warming and analyzing of practical data analysis, especially the data of Jilin province ,this paper will put forth the strategy of achieving sustainable development in order to bring the useful reference for policy makers.The basic research idea of this paper will start from the sustainable development of agriculture and analyze the pros and cons of modern agricultural development by using of the basic Marxist principles , combing with agricultural economics, ecological economics, environmental ethics and evidence of modern Western economics in the global context of climate warming. To realizing sustainable economic and social development must to achieve sustainable agricultural development first is a basic conclusion of this paper.There are many relevant literature, both home and abroad, for the sustainable development of agriculture which involving many fields such as the theoretical research in macro fields and empirical research in micro areas; philosophy research in social science areas and experimental study in natural science areas; Classical Marxist theory research and empirical research of modern ecological Marxism; Comprehensive interdisciplinary research in environmental ethics and toxin absorbing special research in animal and plant. These results of literature provide the research of sustainable development of agriculture with useful ideas .Chapter II The connotation and theoretical basis of sustainable agricultural development under the conditions of global warming. Sustainable agricultural development is the development of meeting the needs of the present without compromising the needs of future generations which is the unify of the economic development, ecological protection and social development.We found that there are widespread modern agricultural producing modes in contemporary European and American countries and regions. They have achieved the industrialization revolution of agriculture at the expense of the environment which do not meet the basic principles of sustainable development; The theorists proposed development model which advocating reduction and re-use and recycle agriculture whose basic idea correspond with the sustainable development of agriculture;The pollution-free agriculture, green agriculture and high-end eco-agriculture are favored by consumers which do not only pollute the environment and destroy the ecological balance, but also provide health and safety of agricultural products for agricultural sustainable development,Therefore, the development of organic agriculture will be able to continue to enhance the sustainable development of agriculture ,improve agricultural ecological environment, provide the health, nutrition and safe high quality food and improve people’s quality of life which will contribute effectively to building a moderately prosperous society and the goals of building a harmonious society. Sustainable development of agriculture is given a new meaning, and has shown new features and also facing new challenges under the conditions of global warming,.Chapter III The analysis of mechanism of sustainable agricultural development under the conditions of global warming. Reasons for the changes caused by the climate system can be divided into natural climate fluctuations and the impact of human activity .The climate warming caused by human activities mainly refer to natural phenomena, that is, excessive burning of fossil fuels and human activities causing deforestation increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Global warming likely to cause some negative effects such as to rise sea levels, reduce freshwater resources and increase abnormal weather .Global warming cause the changing of the temperature, precipitation and land-water which has a direct negative impact on agriculture. While, the impacst of Warming on energy and industry are more complex, both positive and negative.Global warming affect human health and normal operation of the ecological environment. Global warming has the impact on the subsystem of agricultural resources firstly which is the basis for agricultural production systems will inevitably impact on the production chains and other subsystems.The chapterⅣis the study on the current situation and countermeasures of sustainable development of agriculture. Agricultural development is the result of many resources joint action, climate resources is one of the main resources. Climate resources provide with the light, heat, water , air, energy and materials which have a decisive role on the type of agricultural production, crop cultivation system and the layout of the structure, production potential and development prospects.Current climate change, especially temperature increasing, make the layout of planting of crop varieties change a lot .Global warming increase the probability of extreme climate weather which is bound to reduce soil fertility and need farmers to invest more agricultural production resources than before the agricultural production, which will greatly increase the costs.Global warming has a far-reaching impact on agricultural production and multi-faceted, multi-angle affect agriculture prenatal, delivery and postpartum all aspects. This is mainly because the global warming make the agricultural production more uncertainty, which inevitably increased the degree of risk in agricultural production.Because the response to climate change differ from different regions and different varieties, the impact on agricultural production also showed a wide range of trend. The reason why people are so concerned about global warming, mainly because of fears that climate warming will later adversely affect crop yields and country’s food security.The report of inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change showed the main source of greenhouse gas emissions is agriculture and the relevant data also showed that the methane of agricultural emissions amount to a half of the total emissions caused by human activity. Agricultural development also has profound effects on climatic resources. Both are Two-way constraints.Under the conditions of global warming, agriculture has many problems such as agricultural technology increased agricultural productivity ,the risk of climate warming and population pressure. The Constraints of many sustainable agricultural development including agricultural production model, sustainable development philosophy, agricultural economy structure, policy incentives and so on. The countermeasures for sustainable agricultural development system including the changing of agricultural production model, establishing of concept of sustainable development, optimizing of economic structure and implementation of agricultural policies and other incentives.Chapter V is the study on sustainable agricultural development model under the conditions of global warming– case of Jilin Province. We investigate the basic situation and the current situation of sustainable agricultural development in Jilin Province. Jilin Province located in the hinterland of northeast and its original condition of the soil is good which is one of the world’s three black belt.The total capacity of sustainable development of Jilin Province ranked NO.10 in the whole country which indicating that the total capacity of the sustainable development of Jilin Province is quite good. However, when we look up into the individual indicators, there are still many problems and shortcomings. The impacts of climate change on forest resources ,water and land resources in Jilin Province.Global warming lead to serious drought in Jilin Province and bring substantial damage to sustainable agricultural development. The high frequency of disaster occurrence impact on the institutional building of sustainable agricultural development. This paper proposes a model of agricultural water-saving,a model of organic and a model of carbon sink based on the actual situation in Jilin Province.For the Jilin Province, the water shortage has become an indisputable fact that the development of water-saving agriculture is the need to adapt to global warming. In accordance with the characteristics of water-saving agricultural development, we divided them into upland paddy field water-saving measures and water saving measures; Organic agriculture has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions which help to control global climate change.Organic agricultural production help to reduce energy consumption which adapt to the principles of organic agriculture fair. Organic agriculture can improve the quality of agricultural products, contribute to the survival of human and environmental health. Organic agricultural production is conducive to sustainable agricultural development, and maintaining sustainable ecosystems harmony. The development of organic agriculture is a system which needs multi-level attention and support comprehensive from different angles, including government, enterprises and farmers markets and so on. To develop carbon sinks economy, implement land rotation farming and agricultural pilot ecological compensation mechanism. To establish carbon trading mechanism to promote market-oriented carbon sink projects developing further.The last part is the paper’s conclusion. In order to eliminate global warming conditions barrier factors for sustainable development of agriculture, this paper presents five Suggestions: firstly,to change the agricultural production methods, improve agricultural sustainable development ability; secondly, to optimize the agricultural economic structure, slow agriculture production to warming influence; thirdly, to carry out agricultural production incentive policy, activate the sustainable development power source; Fourthly, to advocate the concept of sustainable development mode of agricultural; Fifthly, to promote low-carbon technology application, to realize the economic benefits and environmental protection win-win.更多还原