【作者】 付竞卉；

【导师】 李晓；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 世界经济， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 自1945年美国通过制度化安排确立世界霸主地位以来,关于美国霸权衰落的讨论就从未停止过。特别是2007年美国次贷危机的爆发并迅速发展成为全球性金融危机,一些新兴大国开始提出建立多极化国际货币体系的要求,美元信用面临着比较严峻地挑战,国际社会也开始产生关于美国金融霸权衰落的担忧。国内外学术界也就美国霸权的未来走向及可能替代美国的下一个霸权国家问题进行了探讨和研究,但结果却是争议不断。时至今日,美国依旧是世界上综合实力最为强大的国家,而美元也仍然是国际货币体系的主导货币。现代国家美国是一个典型的“金融国家”,其不仅拥有全世界最发达、最开放的金融市场和金融规则的制定权,而且美元作为世界核心货币具有强大的主权货币能力。正是金融领域的强大实力造就了今日的美国,也支撑其成为第一个全球范围的霸权国家。我们不禁要问,为什么美国能够成为金融国家,其如今的金融霸权是一个突变发展的产物还是一个渐进累积的过程?而以往的霸权国家荷兰和英国为什么未能成为金融国家呢?成为金融国家需要具备哪些条件呢?将这些一脉相承的问题结合在一起,即构成了本文的论题:“金融国家的形成与发展”。本文怀着问题意识,本着客观、严谨的学术研究态度,采用逻辑分析方法和历史比较研究方法,以国际政治经济学和制度经济学相结合的视角,在对以往的霸权周期和霸权兴衰理论总结的基础上,对金融发展与霸权兴衰之间的关系建立起理论分析框架,即通过对金融发展与经济增长和制度安排之间关系的分析来阐释金融在霸权兴衰中的重要作用。在理论分析的基础上,本文试图从世界经济史的发展脉络中寻求答案,即对历史上出现过的霸权国家进行考察,分析金融发展在霸权兴衰中所起到的作用,以求对理论分析进行验证。本文首先以历史上的霸权国家荷兰和英国为例对金融发展在霸权兴衰中的作用进行探讨和研究,其次对现代金融国家的典范——美国的形成与发展进行深入探讨,最后在历史研究的基础上得出相应结论。在荷兰霸权时期,金融市场和金融组织在其崛起、胜利和成熟中起到了重要的作用。而在其衰落的过程中,虽然由金融扩张所导致的金融危机的爆发起到了很大的破坏作用,但是商业贸易的衰败才是决定性影响因素。这与该时期贸易相对于金融的地位和发达程度是息息相关的。在荷兰国内,商业和贸易相对于金融具有比较优势;但相对于该时期的其他国家而言,荷兰的金融业具有比较优势。荷兰本是一个小国,其与同时期的法国相比,在人口规模、领土面积和前期发展基础上是有较大差距。但是,它凭借着金融创新能力,通过发展年金市场和国债市场、改革税收制度,通过建立阿姆斯特丹汇兑银行和荷兰东印度公司,取得了抵抗西班牙的八十年战争的胜利和一系列与法国争霸战争的胜利,最终成为欧洲同时期最为强大的国家。可以说,荷兰的奋斗历史就是一部金融创新史,其在金融市场、金融机构和金融工具等领域都扮演着开拓者的角色,这是同时期的其他国家都望尘莫及的。但是,随着制度僵化和路径依赖的影响,荷兰逐渐被后起的、具有支撑金融发展的更大市场的英国所超越。在英国霸权时期,制度安排和金融发展在其崛起、胜利和成熟中都起到了极为重要的作用。尤其值得注意的是,除了金融市场、金融组织和金融机构的作用外,英镑所体现的主权货币能力开始显现,这在荷兰霸权史中是不具备的。在英国霸权的衰落中,其与美国之间在国内市场规模、金融创新能力和资本市场的发展方面的差异已经开始显现,而两次世界大战和大萧条的冲击也使得英国从债权国变为债务国,并失去了英镑的国际货币地位,从而最终退出了霸主的舞台。可以说,英国是一个“准金融国家”,其相对于其他国家而言具有明显的金融业比较优势,特别是英镑的国际地位为其谋得了独一无二的金融中心地位。但是,就国内整体经济状况而言,英国主要依靠的是第二产业(制造业)的发展,其在国际经济中更主要的是扮演一个贸易大国的角色。这与此时的国际分工主要体现为“农业—制造业”的形式是息息相关的。而英国也正是在这样的背景下,依靠工业革命推动下的强大生产能力和自由贸易政策的推广而成长为世界经济强国的。金融在整个英国霸权兴衰中都起到了极为重要的催化剂和推动力的作用。没有金融资本的支持,就不可能发展出股份制公司,也不会产生工业革命;没有金融市场特别是债券市场的发展,也就不可能为战争中的英国提供持续的、大规模的和低利率的融资;而没有英镑的国际地位的支撑,英国不可能在国际贸易和国际金融领域获得如此核心的地位。所以,也许金融发展在英国的霸权兴衰中并非浮在表面的最显而易见的决定性因素,但是其内在的作用却是不可低估的。此后,英国也正是因为在两次世界大战后丧失了债权国地位和英镑的主导货币地位,才最终退出了霸主的舞台。取而代之的,是具有更强金融创新能力和金融活力的美国。美国霸权兴衰的历史与金融发展有着千丝万缕的联系。华尔街成为美国金融的缩影,它的风云变幻左右着美国经济的走势。较同时期的其他国家而言,美国不仅具有金融业的比较优势,而且具有金融业在国内各产业中的绝对优势。此时期的国际分工逐渐向“制造业—金融业”过渡,而第三次科技革命推动下的技术创新为金融业从服务业中分离出来提供了条件。从美国独立战争到南北战争,从布雷顿森林体系的建立到“美元体制”的建立,从亚洲金融危机到全球性金融危机,金融发展贯穿了美国霸权崛起、胜利、成熟的各个阶段,而至于美国霸权的衰落,其将来也必定会在金融领域得到充分且具体的体现。可以说,美国与荷兰和英国的霸权是不同的,其已经不再依赖于作为贸易顺差国和债权国来维持霸权地位,恰恰相反的是,美国现在是双赤字的发展模式,其通过全球性金融扩张成为一个彻底的“金融国家”,同时依靠美元的信用肆意消费全世界的资源。美国成为一个超级金融大国,资本化成为美国资本主义的核心精神。通过阅读历史我们发现,美国金融霸权的出现并不仅仅是一个突变性或者阶段性问题,它是有历史脉络可寻的,也是在以往霸权国家的发展轨迹中一步步演进而来的。在理论和历史检验的基础上,本文得出了三点结论:第一,金融发展在一国的霸权兴衰中起到了极为重要的作用,这种作用表现于霸权的崛起、胜利、成熟和衰落的各个时期,且与贸易和商业的发展息息相关。金融的作用随着时代背景、产业结构和国际分工的变化从弱到强,呈现一种动态演进的过程,发展到美国已经形成以金融霸权为最主要支撑力量的“金融国家”。可以说,霸权国家演进的历史就是金融国家形成与发展的历史。第二,一国发展成为“金融国家”需要具备几点条件:(1)有利于金融发展的民主宪政政体(2)一个能够支撑金融发展的强大的、有效率的国内市场(3)完善的银行体系和高度发达的资本市场(4)强大的主权货币能力(5)自由主义贸易体系和规模庞大的贸易需求(6)能够为金融发展提供信用支撑的信息体系。第三,美国作为现代金融霸权国家,目前虽然遭受了全球性金融危机的冲击,但其政治、军事、经济等综合实力尤其是金融实力仍然处于世界领先水平。而从“金融国家”所需具备的几个条件来分析,还未出现能够与美国相抗衡的候选国。但是,按照霸权兴衰的规律,美国霸权终将走向尽头,与此同时一个新的大国会在世界经济的混乱之中崛起。这个候选国会出现在欧洲还是亚洲,会是一个国家还是一个国家联盟,这些都是未知数。唯一能够确定的,就是下一个“超级金融国家”一定会具备金融国家形成所需要的基础条件。更多还原

【Abstract】 The discussion about the decline of American hegemony has never stopped Since the United States established world hegemony through institutional arrangements in 1945. In particular, the American sub-prime mortgage crisis broke out in 2007 and quickly developed into a global financial crisis, some emerging countries put forward to the requirement to establish a multi-polar international monetary system. Dollar credit faced relatively serious challenges, the international community begun to concern about the decline of American financial hegemony. Many scholars begin to study the future direction of American hegemony and the issue of possible alternatives to America, but the result is indeed controversial. Until now, America remains the world’s most powerful nation, and the dollar is still the dominant currency of the international monetary system.Ameirca as a modern country is the typical "financial state".It not only has the world’s most advanced and developed financial markets and financial rule-making power, and the dollar as the world’s key currency has strong sovereign currency capabilities.It is the powerful strength of the financial sector created today’s United States, but also supported it to become the first global hegemonic state. We have to ask: why the United States can become a financial state? Its financial hegemony is the product of a mutation or a gradual accumulation in the development process? Why the past hegemony—Netherlands and England did not develop into the financial states? What conditions need to become a financial state? Combing these issues will constitute the topic of this paper: the origin and evolution of the financial states.With problem awareness, taking an objective and rigorous academic research attitude, using logic and comparative history analysis research methods, combining with international political economy and institutional economics perspective, at the basis of concluding the past hegemonic cycles theory, this paper builds a theoretical framework between the financial development and the rise and fall of hegemony which is used to explain important role of finance played in the rise and fall of hegemony. Based on the theoretical analysis, this paper attempts to see answers from the developing context of world economic history. It studies the hegemonic countries appeared in the history and analysis the role of finance development played in the rise and fall of hegemony in order to verify the theoretical analysis. Firstly , this paper researches the role of financial development in rise and fall of Netherlands and Britain which are hegemonic states in the history; Secondly, it deeply explores the formation and development of modern financial state - the United States; Finally, on the basis of history it draws the appropriate conclusions.During the Netherlands hegemony period, the financial market and financial organizations had played an important role in the rise, triumph and maturity of the hegemony. In the course of its decline, although the occurrence of financial crises caused by financial expansion played a significant role in the destruction, but the decline of commerce and trade was a decisive factor. This was related to the status and development level of trade relative to the financial in this period. In the Netherlands, commercial and trade relative to finance had a comparative advantage; but compared to other countries in this period, the Dutch financial sector has a comparative advantage. The Netherlands was a small country which had a large gap compared to France in the population size, land area and the preliminary development basis. However, it was by virtue of financial innovation, through the development of annuity markets and bond markets, reforming the tax system, establishing the Amsterdam exchange bank and the Dutch East India Company, it got the victory in the war within eighty years against the Spanish and a series of hegemonic wars against French, eventually it became the most powerful European countries at this period. It could be said that the struggling history in Netherlands is a financial innovation history. Dutch had played a pioneer role in the fields of financial markets, financial institutions and financial instruments, which could not be done by other countries in the same period. However, with the effect of rigid system and path dependence, Netherlands was gradually surpassed by the coming British with greater market to support financial development.In British hegemony period, the institutional arrangements and financial development played a vital role in the process of rise, victory and maturity of British hegemony. Particularly, except for the financial markets, organizations and institutions, the role of British Pound as the monetary sovereignty had arisen obviously, which was not available in Holland. During the decline process of British hegemony, the differences had immerged on domestic market size, financial innovation capacity and the development of capital market between British and America. The British has generally turning into a debtor nation from creator under the impact of two World Wars and the Great Depression, and lost its hegemony while British Pound was no more international currency. British could be said as a“quasi-financial state”, for obviously it took comparative advantage over the other countries, especially while the role of British Pound as international currency helped it gained the position of world financial centre. However, in terms of the overall domestic economy, British mainly relied on the growth of manufacturing industry, and acted more like a big trading nation. This related closely with the temporal pattern of“Agriculture Industry----Manufacture Sector”on international labor division. Under such situation, driven by the powerful production capacity led by industrial revolution and the widespread of free trade policy, British grew up rapidly to an international economic power. Finance played a vital role of catalyst and driven force in the rise and fall of British hegemony. Without the support of financial capital, it was impossible to develop its joint-stock company and promote industrial revolution; without the development of financial market, especially bond market, it was impossible to provide continuous, large scale funds with low interest; also without the support of British Pound’s international status, UK was impossible to obtain the core status in international trade and finance sector. Therefore, although the finance development was not the most obvious and determining factor, its role could not be underestimated. Since then, especially after two world wars, the UK lost its status as creator nation and the Pound’s leading position, finally gave up its hegemony position to a country with more powerful financial innovation capacity and yiability.In America, the rise and fall of its hegemony related very closely with the development of finance. The Wall Street had become the epitome of American finance, it’s development was changing the trend of American economy. Compared with the other countries at the same period, the America not only had the comparative advantage but also had absolute advantage in the financial industry. During this period, the international labor division was transferring to“Manufacturing Sector—Finance Sector”,and the technology innovation driven by the Third Technology Revolution provided conditions needed by the separation of finance industry from service sector. From the independence war to the civil war, from the establishment of Breton Woods System to the creation of Dollar system, from the Asia financial crisis to the global financial crisis, finance went through every period in the course of establishment and fall of American hegemony. And in the future, the decline of American hegemony will be surely and roundly reflected in the financial sector. Different from the Netherlands and the UK, America does not need to be trade surplus country and creator nation to maintain its hegemony status. In contrast, the USA maintains the development model of double deficits, and has change into a real“financial nation”through global financial expansion. Relying on dollar credit, America willfully consumes the resources all around the world. As a financial superpower, capitalization has become the core concept of the American capitalism.Throughout history we find that the emergence of U.S. financial hegemony is not just a problem of mutation or stage. It can be found in historical context, and also evolutes step by step from the development path of hegemonic states in the past. In theory and history test, this paper obtains three conclusions:Firstly, financial development played a very important role in the rise and fall of the hegemony, which was reflected in the rise, victory, maturity and decline periods of hegemony, and was closely related to the development of trade and business.The role of the finance developed from weak to strong with the varies of time background, industry structures and international division of labor, showing a dynamic evolution process. When it developed to the American period, financial hegemony has been formed as the most important force to support the hegemony, and the America has become the "financial state".Secondly, a country becomes a "financial state" requires a few conditions:(i) the government with democratic constitutional system which is suitable for financial development; (ii) a strong and efficient domestic market which can support the financial development; (iii) the sound banking system and highly developed capital market; (iv) the strong currency sovereign capacity; (v) the liberal trading system and large-scale trade needs; (vi) the information systems which is able to provide credit support for the financial development.Thirdly, the United States as a modern country has financial hegemony, although it is currently suffering the impact of global financial crisis, its political, military and economic comprehensive strength, especially financial strength is still the world leader. Analyzing the several conditions necessary for a "financial state ", there has not candidate which is able to compete with the U.S. However, according to the laws of the rise and fall of hegemony, the United States hegemony finally will come to an end, while a new large country will rise in chaos of the world economy. Whether the next candidate will appear in Europe or Asia, it would be a country or a union of countries, these are still unknown. The only way to be determined is that the next "financial state" will have the necessary basic conditions for formation of the financial states.更多还原