【作者】 王晓光；

【导师】 衣保中；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 区域经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 2007年4月,以美国第二大次级房贷公司新世纪金融公司破产为标志,美国正式爆发了次贷危机。2008年9月,拥有158年历史的美国第四大投资银行雷曼公司宣布破产,美国的次贷危机迅速演变成一场来势凶猛的国际金融风暴。这场源自美国的金融风暴,波及范围之广、冲击力度之强,连锁效应之快是前所未有的,它使世界各国经济遭受了严重地打击。世界各国为应对金融危机的影响,纷纷采取各种反危机的措施,调整各自的经济发展战略,转变经济发展方式,同时,面对金融危机的严峻挑战,各国加强区域经济合作、共度难关的意识和决心明显加强。作为21世纪的两个新兴经济体中国与俄罗斯,在此次危机中也难以独善其身,两国经济均遭受了重创。在危机面前,两国政府意识到,只有紧紧抓住危机带来的新的发展机遇,积极寻求双边合作,加强两国区域经济合作,共建信任,化危为机,才能使两国共度难关、经济稳定持续发展,才能把两国的战略协作伙伴关系推向更高水平,为两国人民造福,为世界做出新的贡献。因此,本论文在国际金融危机的背景下,选择中俄区域经济合作的问题进行研究,希冀具有一些理论与现实意义。首先,本论文对区域经济合作、中俄区域经济合作等相关概念涵义进行了界定。一是论文明确了区域经济合作的涵义是指不同主权国家的政府和经济组织,在互利的前提下,在各种领域,建立一定的合作和协调机制,以实现区域资源的优化组合,提高整个区域的经济福利的活动。二是界定了中俄区域经济合作的概念。论文从广义上和狭义两个层次分析了这一概念,指出中俄区域经济合作是中俄两国毗邻地区的经贸合作,又不仅限于边境地区的经贸合作,而是向更广地域、更多领域扩展的一种全方位、多层次、宽领域、高水平的一种经济合作。三是介绍了国际金融危机的概况及其对全球化经济和区域经济合作的影响,指出金融危机是一把双刃剑,既给各国带来挑战和困难,也给世界各国提供加强区域经济合作的机遇。四是对后危机时代的概念及后危机时代国际形势的特征进行了阐述。其次,论文对博弈论、边界一体化效应理论、边境区位理论、区域经济合作理论、国际合作理论、新制度经济学等理论进行了梳理与分析,特别是运用博弈论中的非合作博弈和合作博弈理论分析了中俄两国加强合作的必要性和现实性,并通过新制度经济学理论的有关博弈、合作与制度、制度变迁理论的剖析,强调了中俄区域经济合作中制度安排与机制构建的重要性。论文还运用国际合作理论建构主义中的合作文化论说明,在两国开展经济合作时,除了考虑经济利益等因素,更要考虑非物质因素的影响,如文化观念认同、社会心理等因素,因为只有照顾合作双方的文化、历史传统、价值观念的差异,在相互尊重、求同存异,加强人文合作的基础上,两国才能开展和谐、互动、长期的合作关系。总之,论文运用多种理论作为中俄区域经济合作问题的分析工具,可以说是为研究中俄区域经济合作奠定了坚实的理论基础。再次,本论文全面深入地研究了国际金融危机前中俄两国区域经济合作进展,分析了国际金融危机对中俄两国经济发展和两国区域经济合作的影响,以及国际金融危机背景下两国区域经济合作的现状及其特点,探寻了促进或阻碍中俄区域经济合作的主要因素和深层次的原因,指出中俄区域经济合作进程缓慢、合作质量不高的主要原因是中俄两国之间还缺乏足够的合作认同与互信及有效的制度安排。同时,论文根据中俄两国现实的发展水平和实践,提出“政府引导、市场主导、制度安排、合作认同”的合作路径,即加强政府及政策引导、以企业为主体和市场力量为主导,在重点项目和领域加强合作,获得双方共同利益,坚定两国合作愿望,从而构建规范有效的合作机制,形成一种长期合作认同的路径。同时,论文提出中俄应构建跨境经济合作区的地缘结合模式,实现两国区域经济合作的进一步发展。最后,论文展望了后危机时代中俄两国区域经济合作发展的前景。论文运用了定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,运用数据,建构一元线性回归模型对中俄建立自由贸易区对中俄两国经济效益影响进行了实证分析,并对建立中俄自由贸易区的背景、可行性与必要性以及建立中俄自由贸易区所面临的困难与挑战进行了详细地阐释,明确了中俄两国尽管目前还不具备建立自由贸易区的条件,但是中俄建立自由贸易区是适应区域经济一体化和区域经济合作的必然的发展趋势。论文还在政治、经济、文化、制度等方面对深化中俄区域经济合作提出了一些政策与建议。总之,本论文对开展中俄区域经济合作的问题研究的结论是:中俄两国应抓住国际金融危机带来世界经济调整的机遇,以双方合作的共同利益为基础,以互信为合作前提,采取务实主义态度,循序渐进地推动两国合作的深入,同时更要认清中俄区域经济合作的质量和长远发展还取决于双方的文化观念及合作的认同、两国的有效的制度安排,因此,两国应加大文化交流和合作,消除不和谐因素,构建和规范两国的合作机制,提升两国经济合作的水平,加深两国战略合作伙伴关系,共创两国美好未来。更多还原

【Abstract】 New Century Financial Company, the second largest U.S. subprime mortgage company, declared bankruptcy on April 2007, which formally marked the outbreak of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. On September 2008, Lehman Brothers, which has a 158-year history and stands as the fourth largest U.S. investment bank, also declared bankruptcy. Since then the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis quickly turned into a ferocious international financial turmoil. This crisis, originated from the U.S. financial field, is unprecedentedly spreading across many counties, impacting deeply and resulting quickly a series of effects, and thus it leads to great sufferings of the world economy. In order to response to this financial crisis, countries in the world have taken various anti-crisis measures, to adjust their economic developing strategies and transform the way of economic development. At the same time, faced with the financial crisis, many countries’determination in strengthening regional economic cooperation to cope with the hard times was obviously strengthened. In the 21st century, the two emerging economic entities of China and Russia, were also not immune to the crisis and both economies had been suffered heavy losses. Confronted with this crisis, the two governments realized that the only way out was to closely catch the new developing opportunity, pursue bilateral cooperation positively, establish faith and trust between each other and transfer crisis to chances. So that the two countries can overcome the difficulties, put forward economic development, push their strategic partnership of coordination to a higher level, finally benefit the people of these countries and make the new contributions for the world. Therefore, under the background of international finance crisis, this thesis studies the China and Russia regional economic cooperation, hoping to bring some theoretic and practical significances to these countries.Firstly, this thesis defines the denotative and connotative meanings of the terms like regional economic cooperation, the China and Russia regional economic cooperation and so on. At first, this thesis clearly illustrates the implication of the regional economic cooperation, which refers to the different sovereign states’governments and some economic organizations, under the mutually beneficial premise, establishes certain cooperation and the coordinated mechanism in each domain, to realize the region resources optimum composition and enhance the entire region economic welfare’s activities. And then the China and Russia regional economic cooperation has been delimited from broad and narrow senses irrespectively. It is pointed out that the China and Russia regional economic cooperation is not only adjoining the two countries to local trade operations, but also approaching one kind of economic cooperation in a broader region expanding across more domains, which is a multi-aspect, wide-domain and high-level cooperation. What’s more, it introduces the survey of international finance crisis and its influences on the globalized economy and regional economic cooperation; it points out that the financial crisis is a double-edged sword, which brings the challenge and the difficulty to various countries and also provides various countries the opportunity to strengthen the regional economic cooperation. Finally, it elaborates the concept of post-crisis time and illustrate the characteristics of international situation in the crisis time.Secondly, this thesis analyzes the related theories like game theory, boundary integration effect theory, frontier location theory, international cooperation theory, regional economic cooperation theory, new system economic, ect. Especially it makes use of non-gambling and gambling theories of the game theory to analyze the necessity and the feasibility of China and Russia’s strengthening cooperation, and then through new systematic economic theory’s related gambling, the cooperation theory, the system theory and the system vicissitude theory, it emphasizes the importance of the institutional arrangements and the mechanism construction in China and Russia regional economic cooperation. This thesis also utilizes the cooperation culture of the construction principles in the international cooperation theory to demonstrate that when developing economic cooperation, both countries should consider not only the economic interests, but also the non-physical factors’influences, like cultural approval, social psychology. Because only by considering the cooperation of both sides’cultures, historic traditions, the difference of values and basing on mutual respects to seek for common ground while maintaining difference and strengthening the humanities’cooperation, both of the two countries can develop a harmonious, interactive and long-term cooperation. In brief, utilizing many kinds of theories as an analysis tool of researching China and Russia regional economic cooperation, this thesis may provide some aid to study the China and Russia regional economic cooperation.Thirdly, this thesis studies thoroughly and comprehensively the China and Russia trade operation course before the international finance crisis, analyzes the influence of international finance crisis on the Sino-Russian economic development and their regional economic cooperation and seeks for the present situation and the characteristic of their regional economic cooperation under the background of international finance crisis. And then it attempts to inquire the relevant factors and deep-level contradictions, which promotes or hinders the China and Russia regional economic cooperation, points out the reason why the China and Russia regional economic cooperation advancement is slow and the cooperation quality is not high is that the two countries lack enough cooperation approval, mutual confidence and effective institutional arrangements. At the same time, according to Sino-Russian development level and actual practices, the thesis proposes the cooperation method as“the government guiding, the market leading, the institution arranging and the cooperation approving”, namely strengthening the guidance of government and policies, taking the enterprises as the main body and market force as the leadership, emphasizing the cooperation in the key projects and the domains, obtaining the bilateral common interests, firming two countries’cooperation desire, thus constructing standard effective cooperation mechanism and forming a kind of long-term cooperation approval. Meanwhile, the paper also proposes that China and Russia should construct an interstate economic cooperation zone and adopt the pattern of“administrative enclave economy”, as one kind of exploration and attempt for constructing the China and Russia regional economic cooperation.Finally, this thesis predicts China and Russia regional economic cooperation development’s prospects in the post-crisis period, proposes that both countries should develop positively bilateral regional economic cooperation under the frame of Shanghai Cooperation Organization and launches the cooperation specially in domains of energy, finance, science and technology. And the both sides realizes finally transformation of developing prospects from regional economic cooperation to the multilateral regional economic cooperation. This thesis has also utilized the method of qualitative and quantitative analysis, the data analysis to construct a one-dimension linear regression model to carry on detailed explanation and analysis of feasibility and necessity of establishing the free-trade zone in China and Russia and of the effects, opportunities and challenges to establish the Sino-Russian free-trade zone on this background. And then it illustrates that although both China and Russia do not meet the establishment free-trade zone requirements at present, the establishment of their the free-trade zone to adapt to the regional economic integration and regional economic cooperation is an inevitable developing trend. This paper also proposes some policies and suggestions in aspects of politics, economy, culture, system and so on to deepen the China and Russia regional economic cooperation.To sum up, by carrying out the China and Russia regional economic cooperation under the background of international finance crisis, this thesis concludes: China and Russia should hold the opportunity the international finance crisis brings out, base on their common interests, regard mutual faith as cooperation premise, adopt practical manners, promote the cooperation methodically and simultaneously clearly recognize that the quality and the long-term development of China and Russia regional economic cooperation are also depending on the bilateral cultural ideas, the cooperation approvals and effective institutional arrangements of the two countries. Therefore both countries should increase the cultural exchanges and cooperation, eliminate the unharmonious factors, construct and establish the cooperation mechanism, promote the level of economic cooperation and deepen both countries’strategy partner relations, so that we can create a glorious future of these two countries.更多还原