【作者】 蒲晓晔；

【导师】 赵守国；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 国民经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 转变经济发展方式,是在探索和把握中国经济发展规律的基础上提出的重要方针,也是与经济增长方式转变既一脉相承又与时俱进的科学命题,是寻求实现可持续增长的动力源。经济增长的前提是需求,投资、消费和出口共同构成了拉动一个国家经济发展方式转变中的动力结构,三者在不同时期不同地域对经济增长的拉动,起着不同比例的作用,共同决定着经济增长的速度和质量。因此,如何因地制宜地选择动力模式,优化动力结构成为中国东西部地区加快转变经济发展方式的必由之路。尽管中国长期以来,保持了持续稳定的高增长,但在宏观经济中投资、消费和出口三大动力之间却存在严重不均衡的现象。在“三驾马车”中,一直是投资强、出口壮,消费既小又弱,制约着中国经济的可持续发展。本研究首先对国内外相关文献进行梳理和评述,归纳总结“三驾马车”在经济发展方式转变中拉动的条件和背景的基础上,形成一般理论分析框架；比较分析典型发达国家经验,总结典型发达国家动力结构特征的一般性规律；在对中国经济发展方式转变中的动力结构进行总体分析的基础上,比较分析东西部地区动力结构特征以及东西部地区各省之间动力结构的差异性,揭示东西部地区由于所处的经济发展阶段不同而表现出的动力结构演进差异性特征；分别以上海、广东和陕西为例对中国东、西部地区经济发展方式转变中的动力结构进行实证分析；归纳总结东、西部地区动力结构优化的思路和方向；归纳总结东、西部地区动力结构优化的途径；基于中国经济发展阶段性特征,提出优化中国东西部地区经济发展方式转变中的动力结构的途径。通过以上研究,本论文得出如下主要结论：(1)中国处于经济起飞阶段和工业化第二期,东部地区处于走向成熟阶段和工业化第三期,西部地区处于经济起飞阶段和工业化第二期,相对于西部地区而言,东部地区各省整体所处的经济发展阶段和工业化阶段层次较高,涵盖的经济发展阶段和工业化阶段类型较少。(2)财富驱动成为东部地区经济增长的核心驱动力,“消费主导-服务业推动”是东部地区动力结构优化的方向；创新驱动成为西部地区经济增长的核心驱动力,技术创新逐渐成为西部地区经济社会发展的重要驱动力。(3)长期以来东西部地区在发展过程中进入了不同的经济发展阶段,形成的动力结构也各具特色,国家采取一刀切的方式拉动经济增长的做法有失偏颇,更不利于区域经济的发展。消费将成为未来东部地区经济发展的核心动力；西部地区工业化、城市化尚未完成,人均收入水平较低,外贸依存度低,因而投资仍将是未来西部地区经济发展的核心动力。国家应根据东、西部地区现阶段经济发展状况及其动力结构特征,采取差异化的政策。(4)中国处于起飞阶段和工业化第二个时期,未完成工业化和城市化,投资率围绕30%-35%的较高水平上下波动具有一定的合理性,消费率应保持在60-65%的水平,而净出口率则应保持在5%-10%的水平。(5)要优化动力结构,扩大内需是关键。需要解决的根本问题是百姓“有钱不敢花”、“想花没有钱”和“花钱买什么”的问题。本研究深入分析了中国东西部地区经济发展方式转变中的动力结构的特征、提出优化的方向及途径,试图在以下几个方面进行创新并作出相应的理论贡献：(])详细分析了经济发展方式的具体内涵和外延,在理论分析的基础上,补充完善了划分经济发展阶段的标准以及经济发展方式转变中的动力结构理论框架,对经济发展方式转变中的动力结构发展趋势做了一些探索性的尝试；(2)运用纵向比较分析方法揭示经济发展方式转变中动力结构特征演进的国际经验,以及改革开放三十年来中国经济发展方式转变中的动力结构的特征；并运用横向比较分析方法对中国东、西部地区各省的动力结构特征进行差异性分析,总结出东、西部地区动力结构演进的一般性规律特征；(3)按照新古典经济学和新增长理论关于经济增长源泉的理解,通过实证分析,以动力结构优化的视角,寻求东、西部地区转变经济发展方式的有效途径。东西部地区由于所处的经济发展阶段以及工业化阶段不同,动力结构特征各具差异,通过研究笔者认为东西部地区应采取差异化的政策,积极引导东西部地区因地制宜地选择动力结构；(4)优化动力结构的核心问题是如何扩大内需?笔者认为要解决的根本问题是百姓“有钱不敢花”、“想花没有钱”和“花钱买什么”的问题。这就要求政府要继续大力发展民生工程,提升社会保障水平,以解决城乡居民的后顾之忧。应将提高城乡居民幸福指数作为地方政府绩效考核的重要指标,唯有藏富于民,才能真正带动消费市场。在城乡居民已经满足基本生活需求的情况下,进一步引导消费,积极促进现代服务业的金融、旅游、文化等方面的消费。更多还原

【Abstract】 Transition of Economic development pattern is an important guiding line based on exploring and grasping China economic law of development.It is also a scientific proposition which comes down in one continuous line with transition of economic growth pattern and keeps up with time, and the source of power to seek sustainable growth. The demand is the precondition for economic growth. Investment, consumption and net export composed the power structure to promote the transition of economic development pattern of a country. The three factors, which determine the speed and quality of economic development jointly, play proportionally different roles in economic growth in different time and different areas. Therefore, choosing the appropriate power pattern according to the circumstances and optimizing the power structure are the inevitable course to accelerate transition of eastern and western of China’s economic development pattern.Although for a long time China has maintained a steady economic growth in macro-economy there exists serious imbalance phenomena among the three powers-investment, consumption and exports. For the "three components of GDP", investment and exports have been strong, but consumption has been small and weak, which restricts the sustainable development of China’s economy. In this study the related literature at home and abroad are first sorted out and summarized, and the generally theoretical and analytic framework is formed based on summarizing the condition and the background of the "three components of GDP" to promote economic growth. Typical experience of developed countries is compared and analyzed to summarize the general rules of power structure characteristics of typical developed countries.On the basis of the overall analysis of power structure in the transition of China’s economic development pattern, power structure characteristics of the east and west and the power structure differences between provinces of the east and west are compared and analyzed, revealing the internal laws of growth and process in eastern and western regions. Empirical analyses of power structure in the transition of eastern and western economic development pattern are conducted, took Shanghai, Guangdong and Shaanxi as an example respectively. The method to optimize the power structure in the transition of China’s economic development pattern is based on the phased characteristics of China’s economic development.According to the above studies,the following main conclusions are arrived at.1.China is in the economic take-off stage and industrialization phaseⅱ,the eastern region is moving towards mature stage and is in industrialization phaseⅲ,and the western region has just entered the take-off stage and is in industrialization phaseⅱ.Compared to the western regions. the whole eastern region provinces are in higher stage of economic development and industrialization phase, covering less economic development stage and industrialization phase. 2.In the east, wealth drive becomes the core of economic growth, and "consumption dominating-services pushing"is the direction for power structure optimization;in the west, innovation drive becomes the core of economic growth, and technology innovation gradually becomes the important driving force of economic and social development.3.For a long term, since eastern and western regions are in different phases of economic development and form power structures with distinctive characteristics, it is not proper for the state to adopt a unified policy to stimulate economic growth and to promote the development of regional economy. Consumption will be the core motive for future economic development of the eastern region, while in western region, with imcomplete industrialization and urbanization, low per capita income, and low dependency of the foreign trade, investment will still be the core power for its future economic development. Therefore, the state should adopt differential policies based on the present economic development of the east and west and their respective power structure characteristics.4. China is in the take-off stage and industrialization phase ii with imcomplete industrialization and urbanization, investment rate fluctuating around 30 to 35 percent has certain rationality, consumption rate should be held in 60 to 65 percent, and net export rate should be kept in the level of 5 to 10 percent.5.To optimize power structure, the key is to expand domestic demand.In order to complete that, the key is to solve people’s following problems—"people dare not spend their money", "people want to spend money but having no money", and "what should people buy with their money".This study conducts an in-depth analysis of the power structure characteristics in the transition of estern and western of China’s economic development pattern, and proposes the optimization direction and method, trying to make innovation in the following several aspects and make corresponding theoretical contributions.1. Specific connotation and denotation of the economic development pattern is analyzed in detail.On the basis of theoretical analysis, the division standard of economic development phase and the power structure theoretical framework in the transition of economic development pattern are supplemented and perfected. Some exploratory attempt of the power structure development trend in transiton of economic development pattern is conducted.2.With the longitudinal comparative analysis,international experience of power structure features evolution in the transiton of economic development pattern,power structure characteristics of the transition of China’s economic development pattern in the three decades of reform opening-up are revealed. With transverse comparison analysis,the differencial analysis of the power structure features in provinces of eastern and west regions is conducted, and the general rules of power structure evolution characteristics in the east and west are summarized.3.According to the understanding of the economic growth source in new classical economics and new growth theory, through empirical analysis,with the point of view of power structure optimization, the effective way to the transition of economic development pattern in the east and west is sought. Because of the different stages of economic development and industrialization phase of eastern and western regions, and different power structure characteristics, the writer thinks that eastern and western regions should adopt differential policies,and should be guided to choose power structures suiting local conditions.4.The core of power structure optimization is how to expand the domestic demand. The writer believes the key is to solve people’s following problems—"people dare not spend their money", "people want to spend money but having no money", and "what should people buy with their money".These require the government to continue developing minsheng engineering and to ascend social security level in order to solve the trouble back at home of urban and rural residents. The increase of happiness index of urban and rural residents should be regarded as an important index for local government performance appraisal for only after people get rich can really cosumption be driven. After the basic life demand of both urban and rural residents has met, consumption should be guided further. The consumption focus should aim to actively promote modern services of finance, tourism, culture and other aspects of consumption.更多还原