【作者】 张燕军；

【导师】 王铁铮；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 世界史， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 军备竞赛与军备控制问题是中东国际关系的重要内容,与中东地区的和平、稳定及繁荣有着密切联系,事关中东人民的福祉。尽管如此,但客观而言,军备竞赛的危害和军备控制的重要意义并没有得到应有重视,二战后开始的军备竞赛至今仍在继续进行,其间因军备竞赛不断升级多次爆发大规模战争,而军备控制并未能很好地发挥遏制中东军备竞赛的作用,今后其工作有待于进一步加强。以冷战为界,中东军备竞赛与军备控制均可分为两个时期,冷战时期,中东军备竞赛在美苏两个大国的插手干预下愈演愈烈,多次以战争的方式结束而又重新开始,这一时期的军备控制受到美苏争夺影响,显得软弱无力；冷战后,美国在自身利益驱动下,给予中东军控以更多关注,但主要集中在防止大规模杀伤性武器扩散方面,并取得了一些成果,但它对常规武器控制兴趣索然(对反美国家除外,如叙利亚、伊朗等国),致使中东军备竞赛尤其是海湾地区国家间对抗日趋激烈。本文的研究重点在于：第一,关键地区,如列万特、海湾和马格里布地区军备竞赛的发展演变,武器转让、军事工业发展及大规模杀伤性武器对中东军备竞赛的作用。第二,军备竞赛的根源,它对世界、本地区及相关国家政治、经济、社会、环境等方面的消极作用,例如军备竞赛经常性地打断中东国家政治民主化进程、使之出现反复；它所造成的国家间信任缺乏,使得经济整合远远落后于世界其他地区；军备竞赛占用的宝贵人力物力阻碍了国家经济发展和民众应享有的福利；另外,军备竞赛导致的集权倾向可能会对人权造成严重侵害。第三、中东军备控制的发展演变、特点及对中东地区的影响,仍以列万特、海湾和马格里布为例,并专门论述了常规、非常规武器控制及各个行为体的立场。第四,关于中东军备控制工作的缺陷,造成它的原因,它与中东和平进程及安全的关系。本文的主要观点包括：第一,中东军备竞赛是本地区动荡不安的重要原因,但不是唯一的要素,也不是问题根源,中东的不安定根植于复杂的民族、宗教矛盾等,不解决它们,军备竞赛将无法根除,只有和平进程取得突破,军备竞赛才能止息。第二,军备控制虽不能从根本上遏制军备竞赛,但它能增强国家间信任及合作,为消除中东军备竞赛及其他矛盾奠定基础,因而是不可或缺的。第三、必须建立专门针对中东地区或次区域的军控机制,并辅之以可靠的核查和执行手段,在地区性军控工作难以开展的情况下,先从次区域着手不失为一种过渡方式。第四,大国(特别是美国)必须对中东地区的安全切实承担责任,域外大国是中东军备竞赛的重要参与者,因而对中东军备竞赛的发生发展应当肩负更多义务,严格控制对中东的武器转让,减少对地区事务的干预。第五,中东国家需要转变观念,学会尊重他国利益和正当关切,抛弃以自我为中心的安全观念和以武力谋求安全、军事优势的做法,尝试与邻国合作共存、实现共同安全。纵观中东地区的军备竞赛与军备控制,可以发现,相对于长时期激烈的军备竞赛,中东军备控制工作虽然也取得了一定成绩,但总体而言,实践很难称得上是成功的,这既与军控本身的缺陷有关,也同中东地区矛盾的复杂性密不可分。但是,军控仍是维护中东和平的重要工具,今后必须给予其更多关注与支持,方能为中东地区的和平与发展创造条件。更多还原

【Abstract】 The issues of arms race and arms control are important parts of the international relationships in the Middle East, which are closely related with the regional peace, stability, prosperity and blessedness of local people.Objectively speaking, the damage of arms race and the significance of arms control do not receive due attention and arms race are still going on after World WarⅡ.Meanwhile, major wars triggered by escalating arms race broke out and arms control did not play well the role of curbing arms race in this region. Arms control should be further strengthened in future.Bounded by the Cold War, the Middle East arms race and arms control can be divided into two phases.During the Cold War, interfered by two powers of America and Soviet Union, the Middle East arms race became increasingly intense and ended and restarted in the way of wars.Affected by the impact of US-Soviet competition, arms control in this region looked rather feeble and powerless in this phase. After the Cold War, driven by its own interests, America gave more attention to the Middle East arms control and focused its attention on preventing the proliferation of mass destruction weapons.America achieved some successes, but its real interest was not in the conventional arms control,(except for anti-American countries, such as Syria, Iran, etc.),which led to increasingly fierce arms race in this region, especially the intense confrontations between the Gulf countries.This paper focuses on the following points:First, the development of arms race in the key areas, including Levant, the Gulf and Maghrib region; the impact of arms transfers, military industry development and mass destruction weapons on the Middle East arms race; Second, the root of arms race and its negative influence upon politics, economy, society and environment of related countries, region and the world.For example, arms race regularly interrupted the democratization progress of the Middle East countries; the trust absence between counties caused by arms race made the economic integration of this region far behind the other parts of the world;the valuable human and material resources occupied by arms race hindered the economic development and deserved welfare of local people. Additionally, authoritarian tendencies caused by arms race may seriously infract the human rights of local people. Third, the development, characteristics and the impacts of Middle East arms control upon this region; Levant, the Gulf and Maghrib region are cited as examples again. In this part, we also deal specifically with the conventional and unconventional arms control as well as the position of the states. Fourth, the defects and causes of arms control in the Middle East and its relationships between Middle East peace process and Middle East security.The paper includes the following main viewpoints:First, Middle East arms race is a substantial cause of regional instability, but it is neither the only factor nor the root of the problem. The instability of the region rooted in the complex ethnic and religious conflicts, etc. Without the solution of the problems, the arms race can not be eradicated. Only the peace process breakthroughs obtained, can we stop the arms race there. Second, arms control can not fundamentally curb the arms race, but it is indispensable because it can enhance the reliance as well as cooperation among states and lay foundations for the elimination of arms race and other contradictions in the Middle East. Third,supplementing with reliable means of check and implementation, we can establish specific mechanism for regional and sub-regional arms control in the Middle East and starting with the sub-region may well be a transitional approach when the regional arms control was hampered. Fourth, powers (especially the U.S.) must assume the responsibility for the Middle East security;as important participants in the Middle East arms race, the extraterritorial powers should also shoulder more responsibilities for the development of the Middle East arms race, strictly control arms transfers to the Middle East and reduce their regional affairs interventions.Fifth, it is essential for the Middle East countries to change their conceptions, learn to respect the interests and legitimate concerns of other countries; discard self-centered security conception, seeking security by force and military superiority, and try to coexist with neighboring countries and realize mutual security.After a general survey of Middle East arms race and arms control,we can conclude that some achievements have been made in Middle East arms control. Comparing with the long-term intense arms race, we can not call them successful practices, which both have something to do with the defect of arms control and the complex conflicts in the Middle East. However, as an important tool to maintain the Middle East peace, we still must give more attention and support to arms control in the future.Only in this way, can we create the conditions for the Middle East peace and development.更多还原