【作者】 鹿彦；

【导师】 李玉江； 任建兰；

【作者基本信息】 山东师范大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 生态环境的有限性与经济社会发展的无限需求之间的博弈,逐渐成为我国乃至全球的一对突出矛盾。生态环境在社会经济发展中面临着双重压力,一方面作为生态资源投入品源源不断的供给各部门进行生产和消费;另一方面作为装载废弃物的容器,容纳和分解社会经济活动产生的废弃物。在双重压力下,生态环境承载力不断下降,可提供的环境容量急剧较少,面临着消耗殆尽和不断恶化的严重危机。生态环境危机必然会阻碍社会发展的步伐,甚至影响人类的生息繁衍。因此,用于缓解这对矛盾的新型可行性发展方案亟待提出,以保障生态环境、社会经济和人类发展三个主体发展的可持续性。社会发展和人类活动对生态环境的需求主要表现为将生态环境作为生产要素和污染排放场所的功能性消耗,导致生态资源产品日益稀缺。传统的“高投入、高消耗、高污染、低效益”的粗放式经济发展模式,给资源环境系统带来巨大的压力,自然资源日益减少、环境污染不断加剧,资源环境系统遭到严重破坏。自然界正以各种方式向人类提出警告:气候反常频现、自然灾害频发、新型疾病频出,唤醒人们保护资源环境的意识,促使人类对自身发展的行为方式重新进行审视。环境保护思想自20世纪五、六十年代逐渐步入人类关注的视野,相继通过《寂静的春天》(1962)、《增长的极限》(1972)等得到高度重视,世界环境与发展委员会在《我们共同的未来》(1987)报告中提出可持续发展的概念。20世纪60年代美国经济学家肯尼思·E.鲍尔丁(Kenneth E.Boulding)首先提出了“循环型经济”概念。自20世纪90年代起,循环经济作为践行可持续发展的途径,成为发展的潮流和趋势,主旨在于通过运用各种学科理论和技术方法解决社会经济发展过程中资源枯竭和环境污染问题,通过资源的循环再利用和节约,实现以最小的资源消耗、最小的环境污染获取最大的发展效益,促进人类、社会、经济和环境的和谐协调发展。自20世纪90年代,循环经济得到国内外决策层和学术界的广泛关注,诸多专家、学者从宏观理论和微观实践(应用)层面对循环经济发展进行了大量的探索和尝试,取得了较好的环境、经济与社会效益。综观国内外对循环经济发展的相关研究,发现从宏观总量和微观实践层面的研究比较多,例如对构建循环型社会和循环型企业的制度、方法论方面和实践的研究非常多,而从中观尺度对区域和产业层面的研究相对较少。值得注意的是,随着区域经济学的兴起、产业生态学的不断成长和内生增长理论的快速发展,使区域、产业循环型发展模式和影响循环经济发展的中间内生变量的挖掘逐渐成为研究的焦点。目前,循环经济发展还面临诸多亟待解决的问题:区域经济可持续性发展模式后劲不足、区域之间不均衡发展问题较为严峻;各产业新型发展模式初见端倪、产业结构调整方针下的具体可操作性方案有待进一步创新和落实;循环经济发展的整体宏观路径尚不明晰等。首先,我国区域之间经济发展差距较大,倘若循环经济发展模式路径依赖性较强,势必将加大区域之间的发展差距,如何将循环经济发展与区域经济发展相统一?其次,我国产业发展面临结构调整的大改革,如何将循环经济发展理念注入产业改革之中?再者,随着内生增长理论的兴起,探索影响循环经济发展的内生因素成为必然,都有哪些内生路径影响循环经济的发展?如何通过各条内生路径促进循环经济的发展?……循环经济发展面临着机遇与挑战并存的局势。为较好的解决以上问题,本文提出区域循环经济发展模式和产业循环经济发展模式,并通过对内生变量的实证研究,具体刻画循环经济发展的实现路径,对促进循环经济发展的政策进行甄别与筛选,为今后循环经济发展的宏观调控和微观整合提供理论依据和政策导向。山东省区域结构特征与全国区域特征十分类似,且发展循环经济的经济、自然环境、社会基础、技术进步、制度安排和公共意识等条件较为发育,因此,本文选取山东省作为研究对象。对山东省循环经济发展模式和实现路径进行研究具有典型性、合理性和前瞻性。本文以循环经济发展为目标,采用综合集成法、比较分析法和实证分析法,依据循环经济发展的理论基础和山东省循环经济发展的经济、自然环境、社会、技术进步和制度基础,对山东省循环经济区域发展类型进行划分、产业间循环经济发展进行阶段性规划、循环型产业发展进行个案解析,对不同类型的循环经济发展区域和产业,提出不同的发展方案;同时对循环经济发展在空间和时间上的路径进行全面剖析,通过对投资(I)、城市化水平(URB)、工业化水平(IND)、国际贸易(IT)、消费水平(XF)、教育水平(EDU)、技术进步(T)、市场化进程(M)、基础建设(BC)、环境治理(EM)等中间变量的研究,进一步探究循环经济发展的实现途径,从国家宏观经济政策制定的角度考虑,权衡环境保护与经济发展,为财政政策的制定提供良好的参考。本文采用推进式结构安排,研究内容逐层深入。第一章阐释研究目的和意义,分析研究内容和研究方法的价值与可行性,评述国内外研究现状;第二章挖掘循环经济的理论基础;第三章对山东省发展循环经济的基础现状进行评估;第四章、第五章对山东省循环经济发展水平进行区域评价和划分,并提出区域循环经济发展模式;同时对产业循环经济发展模式进行分析,提出产业间循环经济发展的阶段性路径,对主要产业循环经济发展模式进行个案研究;第六章对循环经济发展的实现路径进行实证分析,剖析影响循环经济发展的时空传导机制,为今后政策制定提供路径选择;第七章给出主体结论和未来展望。本文的主要结论如下:第一,为循环经济发展建立完整缜密的理论基础。本文挖掘循环经济发展的理论基础,对循环经济发展的理论基础进行体系整合。建立了以经济学理论为“发展系”、生态学理论为“生存系”、产业生态学理论为“模拟系”、可持续发展理论为“协调系”的循环经济发展理论体系。这些较为成熟的理论基础共同构成了循环经济发展最重要最基础的支撑体系,共同糅合出循环经济发展的思想精髓。只有充分掌握经济学、生态学、产业生态学和可持续发展理论,才能更加系统、有效的构建循环经济发展模式,推进循环经济发展路径更好更快的实现。第二,对山东省区域循环经济发展模式进行研究。建立以自然资源禀赋、人口发展、经济发展水平、产业布局、环境状况及综合治理、循环经济外部性,六大指标为准则层的循环经济发展指标体系,并分别对其进行区域评估,最终拟合六大综合指标,经过多种实证分析与现实经验性判断,运用现代GIS技术,将山东省17地市按照循环经济综合发展水平,划分为循环经济示范区、循环经济成长区和循环经济导入区三种类型,对不同区域类型提出不同的功能作用和发展规划;同时将区域经济理论植入循环经济发展战略,探寻循环经济的区域协调发展之路。为促进循环经济区域之间的协调发展要求垂直关系部门之间各尽所能、分工合作,横向关系部门之间环环相扣、共同发展。第三,对山东省产业循环经济发展模式进行研究。依据山东省产业发展的特征,结合区域特色产业发展规划与急需整合型产业发展规划,有针对性的提出不同产业循环经济发展模式。对产业间循环经济发展模式,本文提出“阶段性发展战略”,包括起步阶段、成长阶段、成熟阶段,为今后山东省产业间循环经济发展模式提出宏观参考依据;对各产业循环经济发展模式,本文提出了具体发展方案并对其进行实证检验或案例分析,得出山东省应全面推进农业循环经济发展模式、建立健全工业循环经济发展模式、积极引导服务业循环经济发展模式。第四,从空间和时间层面对循环经济发展的实现路径进行研究。采用“财政支出—中间变量—循环经济发展”的路径分析模型,通过实证分析,将路径敏感性进行量化,为财政政策的制定建立了可视化、明确的筛选机制。①从空间发展视角,实证检验山东省循环经济发展的传导机制,定性分析循环经济发展通过财政支出的实现路径,在各中间路径对循环经济发展影响弹性系数中,投资(I)、工业增加值(IAV)、国际贸易(IT)、R&D经费支出(RD)和基础建设(BC)5个变量与循环经济发展综合指数(RE)存在正相关关系,各变量的增加会促进山东省循环经济的发展。②从时间发展视角,文章选取1984-2009年共计26年的时间序列数据实证检验山东省动态循环经济发展的传导机制,综合整体宏观路径和微观路径分析,考虑经济发展与环境保护之间的对立与统一,得出循环经济发展更注重经济发展的质量。技术进步、城市化变量成为推动循环经济发展的主力军,体现了循环经济发展重视经济发展质量和环境保护的理念。第五,构建循环经济时空发展路径象限示意图。基于时空发展的不同要求和不同目标,循环经济发展所要求的时空路径差别较大。本文构建循环经济时空发展路径象限示意图,为循环经济发展建立时间和空间层面的路径甄别体系,选择时间和空间象限内对循环经济发展有较强正向效应变量的交集,发现技术进步和基础建设两个变量对空间和时间上循环经济的发展影响效果均较大,这两个变量可考虑作为今后财政支出的重点路径。更多还原

【Abstract】 The game between the finite ecologic environment and the infinite demand of social and economic development has gradually become a main contradiction in china and even in the whole world. Ecologic environment is now facing a dual burden within the social and economic development. On the one hand, it plays the role as factor of production, providing its ecologic resources for the sectors of production and consumption. On the other hand, it plays the role as container, loading and decomposing the waste. Under the double pressures, the environmental capacity becomes small, and the bearing capacity of ecologic environment is declining rapidly. The ecologic environment is now facing a serious crisis of been deteriorated and exhausted. The crisis from ecologic environment is bound to hinder the pace of social development, and even influence human lives and breeds. Therefore, in order to keep the sustainable development of ecologic environment, social economy and human development, a new feasible development scenario need to be proposed urgently for reconciling this main contradiction.The demand of social development and human activities on ecologic environment is mainly manifested as functional consumption of its production factor provider and waste container. That leads the products of ecologic resources to become scarcer. The traditional extensive pattern of economic development is "high input, high consumption, high pollution and low efficiency", and brings great pressure on the system of resources and environment. Nowadays, the natural resources become dwindling, the environmental pollution is deteriorated, the system of resources and environment has been severely damaged. The nature shows warnings to human beings by various ways, for example, anomalous climate, natural disasters, new type of diseases and so on. All of these abnormal phenomena of nature are happened frequently. It awakes humans’environmental awareness, and impels people to resurvey their own behaviors of development. Since the 1950s, the idea of environmental protection has gradually gone into human’s sight, and been highly approved through from the publication of the books of "Silent Spring" (1962) and "The Limits to Growth" (1972). The concept of sustainable development was proposed by WCED (World Commission on Environment and Development) in the report named“Our Common Future "(1987). In the 1960s, Kenneth E. Boulding, American economist, proposed“recycling economy”originally. From 1990s, recycle economy becomes a way of practice on sustainable development, and is viewed as a new trend of development pattern. The leitmotiv of recycle economy is solving the problems of resource exhaustion and environment pollution which caused by the social and economic development activities by using various theories and technology, achieving the maximal benefits by costing the minimum resource depletion and environment pollution through recycling and reusing the resource, then promoting the harmonious development of human, social, economy and environment.Since 1990s, the recycle economy has attracted much attention from domestic and foreign decision-makers and scholars. Many experts and scholars have done a lot of researches and practices on recycle economy development from the level of macro-theory and micro-application. And through their effort, the recycle economy development pattern has gained a better environmental, economic and social benefit. By analyzing the current related research at home and abroad, we found that much more research come from the macro and micro perspective, for instance, research on the system and methodology of building recycling society and recycling enterprise are quite much. But research on the regional and industrial recycle economy development from the perspective of middle scale are less. It is noteworthy that, with the rise of regional economics, industrial ecology and endogenous growth theory, the recycling development model of region and industry, and the endogenous variables which influence the recycle economy development gradually become the focus of research. At present, the recycle economy development still faces many problems need to be solved. The sustainable development ability of regional economy is relatively weak. The problem of unbalanced development between regions is serious. The new development pattern of each industry is just beginning to take shape. The specific and operable scheme of industry structure adjustment need to be further implemented and innovated. The achievement path of recycle economic development is not clear. And so on. Firstly, the gap of economic development between regions in China is very large. If the path dependence of recycling economic development model is strong, the disparity between regions would be widened. How to unify the recycling economic development and regional economic development? Secondly, industrial development in China is facing a big reform of structure adjustment. How to inject the idea of recycle economic development into industrial reform? Thirdly, with the rise of endogenous growth theory, it become necessary to explore the endogenous factors which influence recycle economic development. Which endogenous paths will impact the recycle economic development? How to promote the development of recycle economy by applying the endogenous path? All of these questions show that the recycle economic development is facing both opportunities and challenges. To better solve the above problems, this paper proposes regional and industrial models for the development of recycle economy, and lays out specifically the realization paths through empirical research on endogenous variables. The path study plays a role of screening and filtrating to the policies of recycle economic development. This paper provides theoretical evidence and policy orientation for macro-control and micro-integration of recycle economic development in the future.The regional structure of Shandong province is very similar to the nation’s, and the basic condition for the recycle economy development is mature, such as economy, natural environment, social infrastructure, technological advances, institutional arrangements and public awareness and other factors. Therefore, this paper takes Shandong province as a case. It is typical, reasonable and prospective to have a study on the development model and achievement path of recycle economy in Shandong province. The paper takes recycle economic development as a goal, and uses various analysis methods, including integration analysis, comparative analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis, inductive and deductive method, GIS technique, empirical analysis, and path analysis. Based on the condition of natural resource, ecologic environment, economy, society, institution, technique and ideology in Shandong province, we divide Shandong province into different regional types by the level of recycle economic development, propose an phase planning for inter-industry recycle economic development, make a case study on each industry for its recycling development. At the same time, we conduct a comprehensive analysis on the development of recycle economy from space and time path. Through investigating the variables of middle paths, including Investment (I), the Level of Urbanization (URB), the Level of Industrialization (IND), International Trade (IT), the Level of Consumption (XF), Education Level (EDU), Technology Progress (T), Marketization (M), Basic Construction (BC) and Environmental Management (EM), we seek the achievement path for recycle economic development deeply. This paper gives a consideration on policy establishment of national macro-economy, makes a great contribution on balancing the environmental protection and economic development, and provides a good referrence for fiscal policies.By using the grade framework, the research content of this paper goes deep into chapters one by one. In chapter one, we analyze the value and feasibility of the research content and methods, review the current study situation at both home and abroad. In chapter two, we extract the theory groundwork for recycle economy. In chapter three, we evaluate the basic status of Shandong province for the development of recycle economy. In chapter four, we estimate and classify the regional level of recycle economy development in Shandong province, and propose regional recycling economic development model for each region. At the same time, we analyze the industrial recycling economic development model, put forward a phase-path for the development of recycle economy inter industry, and make a case study on the main industry for its development model of recycle economy. In chapter five, we make an empirical analysis on the achievement path of recycle economic development, analyze the transmission mechanism of recycle economy development in space and time, and provide a path filtration for policy establishment in the future. In chapter six, we give the main conclusions and future outlook for readers. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:First, establish an integrated and deliberate theoretical basis for the recycle economic development. The paper extracts the foundation theories of recycle economic development, including economics, ecology, industrial ecology, and sustainable development, and makes a systematic integration on the foundation theories. Take economic theory as its "Developing System", ecological theory as "Surviving System", industrial ecological theory as "simulating system", the theory of sustainable development as "coordinating system". All these mature theories together constitute an important supporting system and theoretical kernel for recycle economic development. Only full grasping the theories of economics, ecology, industrial ecology, sustainable development and recycling economy development, we can build the recycle economic development model more systematically and effectively, then promote the achievement path of recycle economy development becoming true better and faster.Second, do research on the regional development model of recycle economy in Shandong province. In this paper, we establish an index system for estimating the recycle economic development level, including natural resource endowment, population development, economic development, industrial layout, environmental condition and comprehensive treatment, and the externality of recycle economy. The six indices together form a comprehensive index of recycle economy development. This paper assesses the regional condition of the six indices respectively and comprehensively. Through empirical analysis and experience judgment, using the modern GIS technique, according to the level of recycle economy development, we divide the 17 cities in Shandong province into three types, the pilot area, the growth area and the introduction area. Different type of area is embedded different function and development planning. In order to promote balanced development among different regions, the departments have vertical relationship need to be allocated with different tasks and cooperating together, the departments have horizontal relationship should join together for a great success.Third, do research on the industrial development model of recycle economy in Shandong province. According to the characteristics of industrial development in Shandong province, this paper proposes industrial model of recycle economic development. We design out a phase development strategy for the inter-industry development model of recycle economy, including the initial stage, the growth stage, and the mature stage. As for the intra-industry development model of recycle economy, we put forward specific development schemes and make an empirical test, then draw a conclusion as follow. It should fully advance the agricultural recycle economic development model, establish and improve the industrial recycle economic development model, and positively guide the service industrial recycle economic development model.Fourth, do research on the realization path of recycle economy development from the view of space and time in Shandong province.①From the perspective of space, this paper makes an empirical test on the transmission mechanism of recycle economic development in Shandong province, and does a qualitative analysis on the achievement path by which the fiscal expenditure will have an influence on the recycle economic development. As the results, we can see that the variables, including Investment (I), Industrial Added Value (IAV), International Trade (IT), R & D Expenditure (RD) and Basic Construction (BC), are all have a positive correlation with the comprehensive index of recycle economy development. The more the variable increasing, the better the recycle economic development of Shandong province will be.②From the perspective of time, this paper chooses time series data from 1984 to 2009, and makes an empirical test on the transmission mechanism of the dynamic development of recycle economy in Shandong province. By integrating the macro-path and micro-path, considering the opposition and uniformity between economic development and environmental protection, we get the conclusion that the quality of economic development is paid more attention in the recycle economy development. The variables of Technological Progress (T) and Urbanization (URB) have significant positive effect on the recycle economy development. It reflects that the recycle economy development emphasize the quality of economic development and environment protection.Fifth, establish a quadrant sketch map for the apace-time path of recycle economy development. Based on different requirements and aims of development in space and time, there has great difference on the space-time path of the recycle economic development. This paper builds a quadrant sketch map for the space-time path of recycle economic development. We choose the variables in the intersection which have strong positive effect on the recycle economic development, and find that Technological Progress (T) and Basic Construction (BC) have strong positive effect on the recycle economic development both in space and time. So the two variables can be considered as the most important paths for the fiscal expenditure in the future.更多还原