【作者】 王跃梅；

【导师】 姚先国；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 政治经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 随着城市化的推进和粮食购销市场化的演进,数以亿计的农村劳动力外流,不少地区粮食播种面积减少,原本“鱼米之乡”的粮食产区(如浙江的杭嘉湖地区)已转变为粮食主销区,甚至出现了弃耕和撂荒现象。农村劳动力外流与粮食安全：一致抑或分歧?如何实现农村劳动力外流与粮食安全的协同?如何通过区域分工和功能互补实现均衡发展?如何通过“要素替代”和“要素对流”来提高粮食边际产出?怎样界定政府适当管制?等等,这些是完成人口从农村向城市转移、减少农民、富裕农民的过程中所需解决和研究的公共管理问题。联合国粮农组织(FAO,1974)提出“粮食安全(Food Security)的最终目标是,确保所有的人在任何时候既能买得到又能买得起他们所需要的基本食品。”,从中包含的两个层面意思：一是粮食的生产能力(买得到),二是粮食的获得能力(买得起)。本研究正是从粮食安全的这两个方面出发,考察农村劳动力外流背景下粮食主产区和主销区的“买得到”和“买得起”问题。本文分析的主要结论可以概括为以下几方面：通过第3章的阐述,厘清了市场化进程中的劳动力结构变动与粮食安全问题。首先,通过分阶段分析粮食管理体制变迁与农村劳动力投入的演变,得出计划经济下的粮食统购统销体制时期,农村劳动力是高度性参与；家庭联产承包制后农村劳动力是高效率投入；粮食“双轨制”及其过渡经济下的农村劳动力开始外流。其次,分析了粮食购销市场化改革与劳动力结构变动,说明了粮食购销市场化改革与农村劳动力外流后存在农村劳动力结构失衡问题,我国的就业结构滞后于产业结构问题等。第三,从粮食的弱质性、比较利益与农村劳动力外流趋势分析的基础上,得出地区禀赋差异与相应的粮食安全目标。第4章研究主产区粮食的比较优势、农村劳动力外流与粮食生产安全问题。首先,从分析主产区粮食生产自然禀赋与比较优势出发,论证了主产区粮食生产的过密增长与农户收入问题；定量测算了13个主产区和7个主销区粮食生产比较优势指数,证实了主产区的粮食生产具有比较优势,并其优势大于主销区。其次,对影响农村劳动力外流因素进行了分解,利用1978-2008数据,采用林毅夫(1992)应用的格里克斯(Griliches,1963)提出的生产函数方法来估计与验证农村劳动力外流对粮食生产的影响,得出农村劳动力外流对主产区和主销区粮食产出弹性具有显著正影响。第5章分析了主销区粮食自给底线、农村劳动力外流与粮食能力安全。首先,分析了主销区粮食生产比较利益；其次,实证分析主销区劳动力外流对农户获得能力的贡献,并对粮食单产与投入要素进行了灰色关联度分析；第三,以浙江为例进行了实地调查,得出主销区农村劳动力外流提高了收入,也即为粮食的获得能力作出了贡献。第6章是在前面2章的基础上讨论区域间功能分工、区域互补与要素对流的均衡改进和制度安排。首先,研究主产区功能分工与粮食效率安全,主销区区域互补与粮食市场安全；其次,提出了要素替代、要素对流的均衡改进；最后,论述农村劳动力外流与粮食安全协同发展的制度安排。总之,本文的实证分析基本验证了我们的理论预期,即农村劳动力外流对粮食安全是有影响的,并在粮食主产区和主销区表现不同,应探索协同发展农村劳动力外流与粮食安全的路径和制度安排。更多还原

【Abstract】 With urbanization and evolution of food market, hundreds of millions of rural labor outflow occur. Thus food-sown area is reducing. The original "breadbasket" of the food producing areas (such as Zhejiang Hangjiahu region) has been transformed into food sales areas; grain acreage is reducing, or farming area is even being given up and abandoned. The problems of outflow of rural labors and food security are serious; are there any similarities and differences for the problems? How to achieve the synergy food security and rural labor outflow? How to increase the marginal product of food by "factor substitution" and "elements convection", the outflow of the rural labor force? How to define appropriate government control? It needs to be resolved during the public management to complete the transfer of population from rural areas to urban areas, reducing farmers’burden and increase farmers’wealth. FAO (1974) proposed that the ultimate goal of Food Security is to ensure that all people can afford life commodities at any time and can buy their basic food needs. It contains two levels of meaning:First is food production capacity (buying), the second is the ability to obtain food (affordable). This article is from these two aspects of food security to study major grain producing areas of the "buy" issues and food sales areas of the "affordable" problem.The main conclusions of this analysis can be summarized in the following aspects Chapter 3 describes the process in the labor market, structural change and food securityFirst is the analysis of food management system of stages and the evolution of the rural labor input. It describes the planned economy of food management (purchase and sale) system and a high degree of participation of rural labor; After the household responsibility system and rural labor force changes in food production and efficient investment; food "dual track"and the transition economies of rural labor migration under the circumstances.Secondly is the analysis of Grain Market Reform and labor force structure changes. It illustrates the Grain Market Reform and the acceleration of rural labor outflow of rural labor force under the premise of structural imbalance and the food security situation. It also analyzes Grain Market Structure of labor movements. The third is the analysis of food’ weakness, comparative interests and trends of rural labor outflow. Last is the analysis of regional differences in endowment and food security objectives.In Chapter 4, we’ll study the main grain producing areas of comparative advantage, the outflow of rural labor and food security. First of all, the analysis of natural endowments and comparative advantages proves the natural endowments, the too dense growth of grain production and farmers income problems in the main food areas of grain production. The quantitative estimation of the main food areas of food production and comparative advantage index confirmed that the main food areas have a comparative greater advantage in food production than the sales areas. Second, the paper decomposes the outflow of rural labor force factors to food production, collects the key variables and conducts empirical model set; carries out empirical research, obtains more reliable data and empirical results for the related discussion; the final part is the proposed policy implications.In Chapter 5, we study the bottom line of sales areas of food self-sufficiency, rural labor migration and food security capacity. First, we analyze the sales areas of comparative advantage of grain production; second, we have a gray correlation analysis of the outflow of rural labor force, food production and the capability of access gray correlation analysis in main sales areas. The following is the analysis of the contribution labor migration on farmers’capacity in main sales areas. Third, take Zhejiang as an example, it is the analysis of the selection and contribution of the farmers in the main sales areas, discussing main sales areas rural labor migration on food security through surveys of rural labor migration on food security.Chapter 6 discusses the balance efforts to improve regional complementarities of convective elements, institutional arrangements of functional division of labor. First, we study functional efficiency of the division of labor and food security in the main food areas, complement each other and the grain market’ security in regional main sales areas. Again, the paper proposes to improve the balance of factor substitution, factor convection. Finally, it discusses the joint development of outflow of rural labor force and food security arrangements.Overall, the empirical analysis tests our theoretical expectations that the outflow of rural labor force has an impact on food security, and performance difference in major grain producing areas and main sales areas. This needs coordinated development of rural labor migration and food security更多还原