【作者】 孙鹏；

【导师】 雷涯邻；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 国际石油合作选区决策是我国石油公司国际化发展战略中的重要环节,主要受到资源国储量潜力、经济实力、政治局势、法律基础、技术设施和石油合同模式等因素影响。当前,石油资源国因为自身“资源优势”,大多已经制定比较苛刻的石油财税条款或正在进行石油合同模式的转换,从而实现对外国石油公司收益水平的严格控制,给我国石油公司国际合作收益及海外业务发展都带来极大风险,也给国际石油合作选区决策优化理论和方法提出了新的挑战。本文以企业战略管理理论、决策优化理论、石油地缘政治经济理论和投资环境评价理论为指导,对我国石油公司国际石油合作选区进行分阶段多目标决策优化研究,丰富了国际石油合作潜力评价指标内容,改进了国际石油合作项目效益评价方法,完善了国际石油合作选区决策优化理论,主要形成以下创新性研究成果：(1)设计并完善国际石油合作潜力评价指标体系。将石油合同模式同资源基础和投资环境相结合,共同构成国际石油合作潜力评价指标体系。以我国石油公司为视角,加强评价针对性,并对指标内容衡量方法进行丰富,从而实现对我国石油公司同国际石油资源国合作潜力的全面评价。(2)基于合同效益、净现金流和效益影响因子等层次构建国际石油合作效益函数。在对国际石油合同模式及财税条款系统分析,以及对国际石油合作项目效益评价方法全面比较的基础上,按照贴现现金流法的思路,分析国际石油合同模式的效益影响因子和阶梯调整因子,并根据不同合同模式特点,分别构建国际石油合作效益函数。(3)基于项目群决策多目标规划模型与风险决策矩阵模型相结合,构建国际石油合作选区决策优化模型。在对资源国进行合作潜力评价指标体系设计和对石油合同模式进行效益函数构建基础上,根据我国石油公司担负的保证国家石油安全和追求企业经济效益的双重目标,以我国石油公司国际合作总体经济效益为目标函数,以我国石油公司海外投资总额和各地区海外石油产能供给多元化为约束条件,构建石油合作选区决策优化模型,为我国石油公司国际勘探开发合作选区决策提供工具。(4)对国际石油合作选区决策优化进行应用研究。根据本文提出的国际石油合作潜力评价指标体系,采用因子分析方法对主要石油资源国进行综合评价和排序；选取A地区主要石油资源国为对象,对本文构建的石油合作选区决策优化模型进行应用研究,并得出合作对策和建议,为我国石油公司国际合作选区决策提供新的思路和借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objectives selection decision on international oil cooperation is a key step for the development strategy of internationalization for domestic oil companies, which is influenced by oil reserve, economic power, politic situation, regulation base, infrastructre, contract mode, and so on. By now, the resource-based powers are applying very harsh oil contract modes and associated financial taxation items to severely control the profits for foreign oil companies, which brings a huge risk on the international cooperation profits and oversea business development of China’s oil companies, and a new challenge for objectives selection decision optimization of international oil cooperation on both theory and methodology.This dissertation was guided by the combination of business strategic management theory, decision optimization theory, oil geo-political and economic theory, and investment environment evaluation theory, studied on the objectives selection decision optimization of international oil cooperation for domestic oil companies by phases and multiple targets, enriched the potential evaluation indexes on international oil cooperation, improved profit evaluation methods on international oil cooperation projects, perfected the decision optimization theory on objectives selection of international oil cooperation, and acquired some original research achievements as follows:(1) Designed and perfected potential evaluation index system on international oil cooperation. The dissertation combined the contract mode with the resource base and investment environment initially to construct the index system. With the perspective of domestic oil company, this dissertation enhanced the evaluation pertinence, and enriched the indexes measure-methods, so as to realize the overall evaluation on cooperation potentials between domestic oil companies and international oil resource countries.(2) Constructed an effect function on international oil cooperation, on the levels of contract profit, net cash flow, and effect influence factors. Based on the systematical analysis on international oil contract mode and taxation items, and the comprehensive comparison of effect evaluation methods on international oil cooperation projects, the dissertation analyzed the effect influence factors and adjustment factors with the guidance of cash flow, and constructed the effect function on international oil cooperation respectively in accordance with specific contract modes.(3) Constructed a decision optimization model on international oil cooperation objectives selection, with the combination of multiobjective programming in project cluster decision and matrix model in risk decision. On the basis of resource potential evaluation of resource-based powers, and effect evaluation on oil contract modes, the dissertation constructed the decision optimization model on international oil cooperation objectives selection for domestic oil companies in accordance with the dual objectives for China’s oil companies of guaranteeing national oil resource supply and pursuing business economic profits, to provide a tool for the objective selection decision of China’s oil companies. The model set the overall profits of international cooperation of domestic oil companies as objective function, and the oversea investment amount and the supply diversity of oversea oil productivity as the constraint conditions.(4) Accomplished the application study on decision optimization on objectives selection of international oil cooperation. The dissertation, based on cooperation potential evaluation index system, made comprehensive evaluation and gave an ordering on major oil resource-based powers with the methods of factor analysis; took some major oil resource-based powers in A area as objectives to perform the application study on the model constructed, and put forward some cooperation suggestions and strategies, which provides a new thought for our oil companies to make objectives selection decision on international oil cooperation.更多还原