【作者】 赵洋；

【导师】 张德会； 沈镭；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 资源管理工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 目前我国开始进入工业化后期,矿产资源在促进我国工业化进程中发挥着相当重要的作用。随着工业化、城市化进程的加快,我国战略性矿产资源的需求量激增,但是长期无节制的开发利用,使得本来紧张的矿产资源问题愈加严重。如果在战略性矿产资源开发利用方式上没有大的突破,在其管理上没有新的转变,矿产资源危机将成为我国经济发展的瓶颈,将直接威胁到我国经济安全和社会稳定。论文基于PSR概念模型,运用相关计量方法,分析了我国战略性矿产的现状以及预测了其未来的发展趋势,并通过战略性矿产资源安全影响因素的研究,揭示了我国战略性矿产资源与经济增长之间的复杂关系,针对性地提出战略性矿产保护的相应策略,为矿产资源优化配置和矿业可持续发展提供科学依据。主要结论如下:(1)基于对我国矿产资源相对稀缺性指数的计算,以及灰色GM(1,1)模型对我国矿产资源供需的预测,指出我国面临着全面的资源紧缺,主要战略性矿产资源中,仅稀土的保障程度较高,石油、镍、钾盐等相对稀缺程度最为严重。(2)我国一些需求量大的战略性矿产资源国内保障程度较低,进口依存度较大,来源地高度集中,少数优势战略性矿产资源优势无法发挥,走入了贱卖资源、贵买产品的怪圈,丧失了影响世界矿产资源市场的话语权,战略性矿产资源的储备还处在起步阶段,难以通过压力测试。(3)随着我国工业化程度的加深,要合理调控和保障我国战略性矿产资源的可持续发展,就必须要建立完善的管理制度,加大政府调节力度,通过战略性矿产资源储备,资源综合利用以及优势矿产保护等措施,促进我国的战略性矿产资源可持续利用,最终达到又好又快发展的目的。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, China has begun to enter the late industrialization stage,while mineral resources plays an important role in the promotion of the industrialization process. In the accelerated process of industrialization and urbanization, with the industrialization and accelerated urbanization, China’s in the great demand for strategic mineral resources, but the long-term uncontrolled exploitation made the situation more severe. If there is no significant change in development and utilization of mineral resources or in management, the crisis will surely become a bottleneck of China’s economic development, and a direct threat to our economic security and social stability.Based on the concept of PSR model, this paper analyzes the current situation and predicts the future trends of strategic mineral resources by econometrics methods, then reveals the complex relationship between strategic mineral resources and economic growth based on the research of security implications factors, proposes corresponding strategies of mineral conservation, provides the scientific basis for sustainable development and allocation of mineral resources. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) Based on the calculation of mineral resources relative scarcity index and the gray GM (1, 1) model which forecasts supply and demand of mineral resources, this paper points out that our country is facing the full shortage of the resources, and in the key strategic mineral resources, only the protection level of rare earth is higher, and the relative scarcity of oil, nickel and potash are the most serious.(2) Some strategic mineral resources with great demand are on the lower level of domestic protection but higher level of import dependence. A small number of strategic mineral resources with relative advantage fall into the cycle of cheap selling but expensive buying, without the power to affect world mineral resources market. The strategic reserves of mineral resources are still in its infancy, hardly to pass the pressure tests.(3) With the deepening of industrialization, the reasonable management system should be established to adjust and protect the sustainable development of strategic mineral resources, especially by increasing efforts of government regulation in reserve, utilization and protection, ultimately to achieve the sound and rapid development.更多还原