【作者】 李林；

【导师】 王健；

【作者基本信息】 河北农业大学 ， 农村财政与金融， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 河北省是我国粮食种植与生产的重要地区之一。然而,河北省自然灾害种类多、分布广、频度高、强度大、损失程度较重,已成为影响粮食生产与农村经济社会可持续发展的主要因素之一。因此,河北省在粮食生产的过程中,必须将防灾减灾、灾害补偿与保证粮食安全的目标协调起来。但是,河北省现行的灾害补偿方式仍然很不完善,灾后不仅给政府财政、保险公司、金融机构带来了很大的压力,而且使受灾粮农面临基本的生存问题,影响粮农收入的提高和农村经济的快速发展。因此,有必要系统地研究粮食生产中自然灾害的补偿问题,这对于提高粮农的损失补偿程度和完善灾害补偿的效率,保证粮食安全以及农村经济的可持续发展有着重要的现实意义。本文结合灾害经济学、公共财政学、保险学及风险管理学的相关知识,借鉴国内外自然灾害补偿的实践经验,采用实地调查、定性分析与定量分析、系统分析法和历史分析的研究方法对河北省粮食生产的自然灾害补偿问题进行研究,以期针对粮食生产形成了一个有效的自然灾害补偿运行机制。本文沿着河北省粮食生产自然灾害与补偿的现状——各种补偿方式的效果分析——补偿中存在的问题与成因——补偿模式的选择与运行机制的构建——完善补偿的制度创新的逻辑思维展开,研究成果如下:第一,在研究的过程中,分析了建国以来河北省自然灾害的历史变化,搜集了近年来河北省在粮食生产中的灾害损失数据,进一步分析了粮食生产中自然灾害与粮食减产的关系,发现河北省粮食产量减少与自然灾害存在高度负相关关系;然后采用三年时滞变异系数计算了粮食产量风险的动态变化,发现近年来河北省粮食产量风险波动较大;另外,对河北省自然灾害补偿的历史过程进行了梳理,总结了河北省粮食生产中自然灾害补偿的现状,并从中找到了存在的问题。第二,通过问卷调查与实地调研对财政补偿、粮食作物保险补偿、自我储蓄补偿、民间非正规金融、农村金融机构间接支农等各种补偿方式的效果进行了分析,结果显示,政府财政补偿过程中自然灾害资金的投入力度满意度、资金到位速度满意度、资金用途满意度对河北省粮食生产的财政支出补偿与救助领域中的“预防与预防”功能、“恢复原状”功能的发挥影响显著,但各自变量对其“生产发展”功能均没有显著影响,反映了河北省财政补偿的现状。从粮食作物保险的经营来看,河北省开办粮食作物保险的主体较少,开展的范围也不是很广泛,业务种类偏少,在对粮农购买粮食作物保险的需求与消费的调研中,找到了影响粮农购买粮食作物保险的影响因素,分析了粮农购买粮食作物保险的满意度,发现粮食作物保险的服务水平还比较低,需要进一步提高。另外,针对农村正规金融机构在发生自然灾害时对粮农的资金支持与补偿方面进行调研与分析,虽然农村正规金融机构的资金补偿只是通过资金借贷恢复粮农的生产,这一补偿效果是间接的,但是由于还款期限较长、贷款规模有限,利息较低的特征,可以帮助粮农较好地应对风险。粮农的自我储蓄以及亲友之间的互助,在规避自然灾害风险中所起的作用相当有限。其他农村非正规金融的融资方式虽然能够解决受灾粮农临时性的生活困难,但是存在借贷利率较高等问题,不能够作为主要的补偿方式进行推广,只能作为财政补偿、粮食作物保险补偿以及农村金融机构借贷等方式的补充并加以规范。第三,分析了影响河北省粮食生产自然灾害补偿中的问题,并从补偿主体与环境约束两方面的因素对存在的问题进行分析,具体来看主要有:财政对灾害的补偿程度低;粮农自身存在侥幸心理,对财政救助的依赖思维以及其他原因造成灾害风险意识薄弱;政府职能缺位造成有关灾害救助与补偿的法律建设滞后;市场制度缺失;政策性粮食作物保险、再保业及资本市场的不完善导致市场机制发挥的作用还不够;其他社会组织发展滞后,导致其在补偿灾害中未能发挥应有的作用。第四,对自然灾害补偿模式进行了梳理,并基于政府补偿与市场补偿的非替代关系的认识,本文认为构建粮食生产的自然灾害补偿模式——基于政府财政投入的市场补偿为主,兼顾各种社会组织补偿的协同补偿模式是切实可行的,并不断完善各种主体在协同模式中的补偿作用,以形成完善的灾害补偿体系与运行机制。同时分析了协同补偿模式下自然灾害补偿机制的理念,提出了协同补偿模式下粮食生产的自然灾害补偿机制的具体目标,以及近期目标、中期目标和长期目标;分析了协同补偿模式下自然灾害补偿机制应该遵循的原则;提出了协同补偿模式下补偿机制的思路与重点,并从主体结构和框架结构分析了协同运行机制的可行性问题,达到充分整合系统中各种有效资源、调动所有参与者的积极性共同应对自然灾害损失的目的,使社会中应对自然灾害的各种主体以损失补偿机制和管理体制的方式联结起来,形成应对自然灾害损失的系统整体力量,实现最大限度的损失补偿,减少自然灾害所带来的连锁性冲击。第五,本文针对协同补偿问题,从加大政府投入与市场机制相结合,建立灾害基金,并加强粮食作物保险、再保险、资本市场转移灾害风险的功能,大力推动政策性粮食作物保险、再保险、资本市场以及社会机构的共同发展。并从政府要注重粮食生产的环境补偿、区域补偿方面进行了论述,提出进行巨灾风险证券化以及发展粮食作物指数保险等方式来规避巨灾损失等问题,并基于社会保障的角度提出了多支柱多层次的粮食生产的自然灾害补偿体系。当然,在灾害补偿机制的构建中,还有很多的问题需要去研究和解决,比如灾害基金的筹集,粮食作物风险区划,粮食作物保险费率的厘定,财政补贴粮食作物保险的最优规模,巨灾债券发行与监管等等问题都需要深入的研讨。随着河北省在灾害补偿方面的重视和粮食作物灾害损失资料的积累与完善,粮食生产中多层次的灾害补偿机制必将建立,并造福于广大粮农。更多还原

【Abstract】 Hebei province is one of important areas of grain cultivation and production in China. However, natural disaster which is varied, widespread, frequent, intensity, and severe has become one of the main factors in affecting grain production, rural economic and social development. Therefore, in the process of grain production, many goals must be reconciled, including prevention and mitigation, disaster compensation as well as grain security. However, the existing pattern of disaster compensation in Hebei province is still far from perfection. Disaster brings not only a lot of pressure to government finance and the insurance company, but also survival problems to afflicted peasant, and it affects the sustainable development of rural economy as well. Therefore, it is necessary to study the issue on compensation of natural disasters for grain production systematically, which has important practical significance on improving extent and efficiency for grain farmers, and has a very important theoretical and practical significance on grain security and sustainable development of rural economy.Based on disaster economics, public financial science, as well as insurance and risk management studies, and learning from the experience of natural disaster compensation at home and abroad, this paper proposes an effective compensation system for natural disasters for grain production in Hebei province, by the research methods of survey, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, as well as system analysis and historical analysis. This paper develops by the journey of the present state of natural disaster and the compensation in Hebei province - the effect of various compensations - the problems and causes of compensation - compensation mode selection and operation mechanism– innovation of compensation mechanism. The research results are as follows:First, it is found that there is a high negative correlation between reduced grain production and natural disasters by analyzing historical changes of natural disasters since 1949 in Hebei provinc; then the conclusion that there is great risk fluctuations of grain production in Hebei province in recent years is drawn through calculating dynamic changes using coefficient of variation of three years delay; In addition, the problems of compensation for natural disasters are found in view of the history and status on compensation for natural disasters in Hebei province.Secondly, through questionnaires and field research on the financial compensation, compensation for crop insurers, self-saving compensation, private informal finance, agriculture and other rural financial institutions indirectly, the performance of various compensation methods is analyzed. The results show that peasants are satisfied with the intensity, speed and purpose of capital investment in the of natural disasters during the process of government compensation, which play an important role in the area of compensation and aid, "prevention " function as well as "restitution" function. However, the independent variables of its "production development" functions are not significantly affected, reflecting the status of financial compensation in Hebei province. In the view of crop insurance business, the number of insurance main bodies and the range of their business categories in Hebei province are below normal standard. On the research of purchase needs and satisfaction of crop insurance, the author found out influential factors of the crop insurance purchase, and he also points out that the crop insurance which is still in relatively low level of service needs further improvement. In addition, on the research of rural formal financial institutions on the farmers’ financial support and compensation for natural disasters, the author found although the compensation effect is indirect only through the loan to help famer restore grain production, the effect is obvious due to a longer repayment period, more limited loan scale and lower interest rates, which help farmers to better manage risk. Farmers’ self-saving and mutual assistance among relatives and friends is very limited in the role of avoiding the natural disaster risk. Other groups of rural informal finance can address the difficulties of life temporarily, but its higher lending rates and other problems make it cannot be conducted as a major promotion. This mode can just be used as a compensation for finance, grain insurance and loan forms of rural institutions, which needs a common standard.Thirdly, make analysis of the fundamental problems from the view of subject of ecological compensation and reality restrictions, such as, financial compensation in low level; farmers’ fluky psychology, that is relying on financial aid and risk awareness of disaster caused by other reasons is weak; the absence of government functions leads to law of disaster relief and compensation getting behind; lacking of market system; policy-related crop insurance, reinsurance and capital market imperfections lead to market mechanisms’inefficiency; other social organizations’lagging behind blocks their way of functioning properly.Next, make analysis of compensation model of natural disasters and get the conclusion that the compensation model of grain production using in Hebei province is workable. The model is cooperative compensation model, which mainly relies on compensation based on government financial investment and cooperates with social compensation mechanism. The paper proposes specific objectives, short-term objectives, medium-term objectives and long-term goals for cooperative compensation mechanism; analyzes its principle; puts forward its idea and key points. The paper also studies the possibility of cooperative compensation mechanism from the aspects of main structure and framework in order to fully integrate various effective resources and mobilize the enthusiasm of all participants. Joint all the compensation subjects together to form united strength to respond natural disaster, realize maximum compensation and reduce the chain impact of natural disaster.Finally, the paper analyzes the issue of cooperative compensation from the following aspects: increase combination between government investment and the market mechanism, set up a disaster fund, and to strengthen the crop insurance, reinsurance, transferring disaster function of capital market, and vigorously promote the policy of crop insurance, reinsurance, capital market and the development of social institutions. It also discusses the regional compensation and government should pay attention to environmental compensation of grain production, proposes catastrophe risk securitization and insurance, index of catastrophe losses and other ways to circumvent the problem, and a number of multi-pillar and multi-level compensation system for natural disasters of grain production.Of course, there are a lot of issues to study and solve in the compensation mechanism, such as disaster fund raising, risk zoning of grain crops, the determination of premium rates in grain crops, the optimal size of financial subsidies to crop insurance, catastrophe bond issuance and supervision. As the increasing attention and calculating knowledge on disaster losses of grain crops, the compensation mechanism of grain production in the multi-level must be established, and benefit the majority of farmers.更多还原