【作者】 颜海兴；

【导师】 宋福根；

【作者基本信息】 东华大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国改革开放的不断深入和社会主义市场经济的快速发展,企业在经营和管理中运用科学的方法的意识逐渐加强,企业在解决诸多市场营销决策问题时,需要完善相关的决策优化理论和方法。针对这样的实际需要,本文试图通过研究基于创新扩散的产品定价与广告和组合营销中的若干决策优化问题,获得一些能够指导企业进行市场营销决策的科学理论和方法。在市场营销决策中,产品定价决策、广告投入决策和营销组合决策是企业所关心的重要决策中的一部分,许多学者对这些领域的问题进行了研究,但仍然存在一些需要进一步深入研究的问题。而且,近年来这些领域出现了一些新的研究问题。因此本文研究从消费者微观决策出发在基于创新扩散模型的产品定价决策、广告投入决策和促销组合决策等方面进行了创新性研究工作。本文首先研究了传统的产品生命周期理论和创新扩散模型,通过文献分析将文章的建模重心放在了创新扩散模型上。在研究了传统的创新扩散模型上,提出了从个体角度构建的扩散模型方法。突破了长期占统治地位的Bass模型族的局限,易消费者行为理论为基础,同时考虑了个体消费者的微观决策的差异性,大大加强了这项研究的科学性。然后,本文在基于微观决策的创新扩散模型基础上研究产品定价的最优决策问题,通过定义需求机会函数f(p),通过将需求机会函数合理地代入传统的扩散微分方程式,研究如何透过售价p影响新产品在不同产品生命周期之销售信息及其利润回收,通过分析数学模型最优解的性质,及最优解对模型各参数的敏感度分析,得到其经营管理含义。其次,在研究产品广告的最优决策问题时,本文通过建立不确定性情况下单个潜在用户面对创新时的采纳决策模型,应用效用函数,给出了不确定性收益的等价确定性收益,量化了不确定性对潜在用户决策的影响；认为潜在用户对创新性能的判断是一个连续型随机变量,给出了基于Bayes修正法则的潜在用户获得新信息后修正消费者以前判断的方法；以采纳创新所需要的最少信息数的形式,给出了潜在用户采纳创新的先后顺序,基于单个潜在用户的决策模型以及某些个体特征在潜在用户群中的分布规律建立了总体的创新扩散模型。在得到宏观层次的创新扩散模型的基础上应用最优控制理论得到企业最优广告投入策略。最后,在研究前两部分内容的基础上通过借鉴Dodson和Muller的研究方法通过构建随机过程方法得到基于创新扩散模型的营销组合策略模型,通过动态规划方法求得最优控制策略,在分析这些的最优控制策略的基础上采用数值模拟的方法对模型进行仿真。在上述创新性研究中,综合运用运筹学、经济学、管理学、控制论等多个学科领域的理论和知识,从微观角度出发对产品定价与广告和组合营销决策优化问题进行了比较系统深入的研究,取得了一些结论,提出了实践应用方面的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the deepening of reform and opening up policy as well as the rapid development of the socialist market economy, awareness of scientific enterprise operation and management has been gratefully strengthened. When faced with a lot of marketing decision-making problems, corresponding decision optimization theory and method are required. With regard to such practical need, this paper attempts to acquire such scientific theories and methods as guide enterprises in marketing decision-making by research on a number of optimization problems regarding to product pricing and promotion which is based on diffusion model.When making marketing decisions, the strategic of product pricing, advertising input and marketing mix is the essential part. Though many scholars have done researches in this area, some old problems still remain for further in-depth study in addition that new questions are emerging. In this paper, the author against such existing gaps and new issues commit innovation research work in the following aspects:The traditional innovation diffusion models are mostly from the general point of view to study new products spread throughout the population patterns and the proliferation rate, are based on the proliferation of communications theory, new product diffusion process as the process of the spread of infectious diseases or message as a way to explore the impact of the proliferation rate of the scale and spread of the main factors. But the reality is that consumers adopt new products out of the individual micro-decision-making considering the various uncertain factors (such as product quality, price) effects in achieving its goal of maximizing the effectiveness of decision-making, as with manufacturers of the between information asymmetry will lead to the decision-making based on individual micro-diffusion model in general and the traditional innovation diffusion model are in the general diffusion model is different from an individual point of view of the diffusion model to build a long-term breakthrough in the Bass model of the dominant ethnic group limitations, it is based on the theory of consumer behavior in order to greatly enhance the scientific nature of the study.Research based on micro-innovation diffusion model of decision-making in carrying out the optimal price of the opportunity to study the demand by defining a function by function and reasonable demands on behalf of the opportunity to spread into the traditional differential equations to study how the price impact of new products in different product life-Cycle sales information and its profit recovery can be made into a specific discussion of the mathematical model, mathematical model by analyzing the nature of the optimal solution, and the optimal solution of the model analysis of the sensitivity of each parameter, to be the meaning of its business management.Through the establishment of the uncertainty faced by potential users of a single case of innovation adoption decision-making model when applied utility function, given the uncertainty certainty equivalent income gains, quantify the uncertainty on the potential users in decision-making impact; that the potential users to judge the performance of innovation is a continuous random variable is given based on the Bayes rule amendments to the potential users to obtain new information before the judge to amend his ways; to the minimum required for the adoption of innovative information on the number of forms, potential users are given the order to adopt innovative, based on a single decision-making model of potential users as well as certain individual characteristics of potential user groups in the distribution of the establishment of a macro-level of innovation diffusion model. Obtaining the macro-level innovation diffusion model based on the application of optimal control theory of business strategy for the optimal advertising investment.In examining the contents of the first two parts by drawing on the basis of Dodson and Muller research methods by constructing stochastic process approach to be based on innovation diffusion model of the marketing mix strategy model, obtained by dynamic programming optimal control strategy, in analysis of these optimal control strategy based on the numerical simulation method of the model simulation.Theories and knowledge drawn from many scopes of subjects such as operation research, economics, management, and cybernetics have been applied in the above study. From the view of microscopic point, a number of strategic optimization problems regarding to product pricing and promotion have been lucubrated, analytic conclusions have been carried out and practical suggestions have been put forward.更多还原