【作者】 尹文静；

【导师】 王礼力；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 农业技术经济与项目管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 我国农业与农村经济经历多年的改革开放,农业生产效率大幅度提高,粮食等主要农产品供求矛盾得到缓解,农民收入较快增长,农民生活得到快速提升。同时,与之并存的城乡收入差距拉大,农民收入增长缓慢,农业基础设施脆弱,农村社会事业发展滞后等问题依旧严重。如何减缓这些问题,促进农业和农村发展,提高农民收入是政府面临的重大问题。利用公共投资和公共投资政策促进我国农业、农村经济增长,促进农民收入的提高和城乡收入差距的缩小是公认的有效措施。2008年,我国外贸出口市场受到国际影响因素的冲击,导致沿海城市的大量中小型工厂关闭,出现大量农民工回流现象,已有研究结论认为发展中国家的公共投资不存在拥挤度,对私人投资具有挤入效应,因此应该借助农村公共投资政策来激励农民重新投入到农业生产中,来缓解社会压力,实现社会的稳定和谐发展。因此,对于农村公共投资是如何影响农户投资的研究就更具有了现实意义。公共投资政策的制定最终目的都是要满足人民生产生活的需要,并促进经济和社会的发展,但对于不同经济水平、地理环境、人文背景、区域经济特征,同一项公共投资政策所发挥的效果也不一样。因此文章分别从纵向和横向两个角度研究农村公共投资对农户投资的影响,以期得出更准确的关于农村公共投资对农户投资影响的结论。纵向的研究,文章在对全国层面的农村公共投资对农户投资影响研究的基础上,选择陕西省与全国层面研究结果进行比较。陕西省是西部重要的农业省份,其地形复杂多样,气候差异明显,适宜多种农作物和经济作物的种植,是西部地区具有代表性的省份。陕西省农村公共投资以及农户投资的促进发展方式可以辐射影响到更多的西部省份,更有利于西部大开发,以及建设社会主义新农村的政策诉求。对陕西省农村公共投资对农户投资影响的研究,文章提出监督分组的主成分分析法,即在进行一般的主成分分析前,先将各变量根据经验和相关性进行分组,然后再进行主成分回归分析。将陕西省与全国层面的研究结果进行比较得出结论:乡村道路建设、农田水利建设、农村电力发展在陕西省和全国层面都对农户投资有挤入效应,其中农田水利建设和电力发展在陕西省的影响程度远远高于全国水平,农村教育在全国层面影响不显著,在陕西省存在显著的挤入效应。横向的研究,文章选取了代表东部地区的山东省,中部地区的安徽省和西部地区陕西省作为研究对象,采用带有时变参数的状态空间模型和卡尔曼滤波求解法研究各项农村公共投资对农户投资影响随着区域和时间的变化而发生的变化,文章研究得出的结果:农田水利建设在山东和安徽对农户投资是存在挤出效应,在陕西是显著的正相关关系;乡村道路建设在安徽和陕西对农户投资表现出显著的挤入效应,而在山东省是负相关的挤出效应,但影响不显著;电力资源的发展在三个省都是显著正相关关系,对农户投资具有挤入效应;农村教育在安徽影响显著,对农户生产投资产生挤入效应,山东与陕西两省影响显著性水平较低;农村通讯发展在山东对农户投资具有挤出效应,在陕西表现出显著的挤入效应,在安徽影响不显著。其次,从卡尔曼滤波求解分析得出的影响变化图可以看出,农村公共投资对农户投资的影响随着时间变化产生波动,在改革开放和市场经济初始阶段,农户积极进行生产投资,各项农村公共投资对农户投资具有显著的挤入效应,很大程度带动了农户的生产投资;改革开放进一步发展,大量农民放弃土地,涌入城市谋生,农业生产投资大幅减少,农村公共投资对农户投资的影响程度变低;取消农业税的惠农政策又激励农民进行生产投资,农村公共投资再次发挥显著的挤入效应。因此,农村公共投资对农户投资的影响是随着经济环境和社会环境变化发生改变的。从以上纵向和横向的比较结果可以看出,由于经济水平、社会环境、地理气候、人文背景等因素的差异,同一项农村公共投资对农户投资的影响在不同地区产生不同的效果,而且会随着时间的变化而产生变化,因此公共投资政策的制定应进行深入调研,优化投资结构,根据各地区情况进行投资种类和不同地区投资力度的调整。本文在研究的过程中,没有考虑不同类型农村公共投资对农户投资的影响可能存在交互影响的情况,不够客观准确;而且由于数据来源的局限性,对于农户投资的指标值选取不够全面,对于各项农村公共投资代表值的选取也受到限制,可能造成得出结果有所偏颇,不够全面。以上问题将在以后的研究中进一步探讨。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since Chinese reform and opening, both Chinese agriculture and agricultural economy developed extremely fast, agricultural labor productivity also improved significantly and grain food supply grandly met people’s need, farmers’income have growed and farmer’s life level have increased quickly. But meantime, there still exit many unsolved problems in Chinese agriculture, such as the huge income gap between rural and urban people, farmer’s income grow slowly, and weak agricultural infrastructure, and agricultural public goods cannot satisfy farmers’need. To solve these problems and promote the process of industrialization and urbanization, and to create a harmonious society, Chinese government should increase agricultural public investment and make public policy to help farmers develop agricultural economy, more agricultural public investment also can induce more private investment in agricultural producing. So how public investment influence private investment and what extent public investment effect private investment are topics that so valuable and important to research.The west part of China is the poorest part in China, 80% of 30 million poorest Chinese people live in this part. We can tell the big gap between west and east, the big gap between rural area and urban area in this part. It is acknowledged that the public investment is the effective way to solve imbalance problem between country and city, west part and east part.Shaanxi province is a typical province in west China, agriculture has long history in this province and there are 23.35 million farmers live in here. Shaanxi province has complicated landform and climates, so many crops are planted here, and other provinces located in west China has same situation. So the system of rural public investment in Shaanxi province can be copied in many other provinces in west China.So we choose Shaanxi province as an example to analysis the relation between public investment and private investment will help to get a better way to shorten the gap between west and east,the gap between country and city in west China.The reason why government invest in public goods is to promote the development of economy and people’s life. According to different landform, different civilization,different economy system in diffent part in China, the sam public policy will effct people’s life in different way and will make different function. So the government should make different public policy in different part. It is important to analysis differet function of public policy in different province.America and European countries have developed pubic investment and research this topic from early time, so they have relatively complete and complicated public policies, public investment-benefits research method and public investment system. Especially the research of agricultural public investment began long time ago and their research involved in micro economy and macro economy, so they have complicated research system to analysis this topic. In China, this topic research started in recent decades, in detail, these topics include anglicizing survey data from rural areas or yearbook data to discuss how public investment influence economy increasing or whether these public goods investment meet farmer’s production and living needs and so on. The topics related farmer’s private investment include the situation, problems, and influential factors about household agricultural investment, recently, many scholars make agricultural public investment as one of influential factors. Most of these researches use general linear regression method, but this method cannot solve serious autocorrelation between time-series data, and usually neglect influences from other public polices.This paper, firstly, describe concepts and theories of public investment and private investment , and describe the development of agricultural public investment and farmer’s household investment in recent three decades in our country, such as the development of government expenditure in agricultural public investment, the changing way of farmer’s investing, both of them changed frequently according to reform and economy transition. And we sumerrize many developed and developing countries’success methods in rural public investment, such as government is regarded as the most important investor in public investment, and all these countries pay much more attention to the research and promotion of advanced agricultural technologies, Israel, as a developing country, spent 6% of GDP on developing agricultural technology, this is the most valuable experience we should get. We use yearbook data to summarize the development of four parts of agricultural public utilities, such as rural road, water construction, electricity, compulsory education. It is obvious that Chinese agricultural public utilities developed so quickly and can meet farmer’s need.And then we use 1990-2008 Chinese time series data to make an empirical analysis about the relation between rural public investment and farmer’s investment. The result said that public investment in rural roads, irrigation and electricity can encourage farmers to invet more in rural production, but the public investment in rural communication will reduce farmer’s investment in rural production. We explained why these different part of rural public investmen has different function in farmer’s investment. Take Shaanxi Province as an example, I summarize the development of rural public investment during past two decades in Shaanxi Province, and then process survey data from 8 countries in different part of Shaanxi Province, about 130 farmer household, to analysis what extent rural public investment influence household investment, and concluded that rural communication development, contry road building and rural public education development have positive influence on household investment behavior.There is a problem that general linear regression method will cause multicollinearity problem, then cannot ignore the correlation of various factors and induce analytical error, this method cannot explain this topic successfully. So this paper use principal component analysis to solve this problem, and then another problem exit, PCA use one factor represent a range of factors without relation, this also will induce misunderstanding of the analytical results. So this paper proposed Supervised Classification-based Principal Component Analysis, this method divided all factors to several parts according to their characteristics firstly, hen use PCA in different parts and get several principal components, make these principal components as independent variables and use general linear regression to analysis explanatory variable, at last get parameter from original regression model. The conclusion of Supervised Classification-based Principal Component Analysis has big difference from other method is that rural road has negative influence on farmer’s household investment, this can be explained that developing rural roads will bring more opportunities to farmers to work in urban areas, so more developed rural road, less farmers invest in agricultural production.At last, this paper choose three different provinces which can represent east, middle and west part of China as example, to analysis the difference of rural public investment’s influence on farmer’s investment in these three provinces. I choose Kalman filter to analysis changes of rural public investment’s influence on farmer’s agricultural production investment according to different areas , time changing and big social events or new government policies, the conclusion showed that both most farmer labor flaw to cities from 1990 and“New rural construction”policy make the influence changed obviously. So we should make different public investment policies in different areas according to this detailed analysis.更多还原