【作者】 谌立平；

【导师】 贾金荣；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 现代农业是200多年来世界农业发展的大趋势。现代农业从本质上说是生产方式的一场革命。金融是现代经济的核心,资金是经济发展的“血液”。在传统农业向现代农业转变过程中,资金及资金的投入已成为现代农业发展最关键的条件之一。然而,现代农业跨区域、规模化生产,对政策、制度等因素的依赖加大;反季节、大棚等新型农业生产方式一方面意味着资金投入加大,另一方面也意味着受自然、市场、技术等影响也加大了;农业产业化生产所伴随的企业化运作、一体化生产及品牌营销的现代企业要素的加入也增大了经营风险和市场风险。这些都会给信贷资金带来损失,从而引发信贷风险。为此,就现代农业信贷风险的评估与控制进行研究,对于促进现代农业的发展,推动社会主义新农村建设,具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本文以现代农业基本理论、现代农业金融支持理论、风险管理理论为指导,分析了现代农业信贷风险的特征,揭示了现代农业信贷风险的生成机理,提出了现代农业信贷风险评估指标体系,并运用财务指标分析和专家模糊评价方法对现代农业信贷风险的评估问题进行定量和定性的研究,构建了现代农业信贷风险的内部与外部控制机制。论文的内容除第一章导论、最后一章结束语外,分为六章。第二章,现代农业信贷风险研究的理论基础。本章首先对论文中涉及的“现代农业”这个概念作出了解释及界定,明确指出现代农业和传统农业的根本性区别,深入分析现代农业的基本特征以及我国现代农业的发展模式;然后论述了发展现代农业和金融支持二者之间的关系,指出现代农业的发展需要大量的信贷支持;最后分析了信贷投入现代农业存在的风险,说明目前风险管理的过程、方法和演进,并阐述了风险管理理论在金融业中的应用。这一章内容对其他部分的内容起着理论支撑的作用。第三章,现代农业信贷风险的生成机理。本章分析了现代农业基于区域化、规模化、市场化的生产方式,因此现代农业不但具有农业生产的一般风险,如:自然风险、经营风险和市场风险,还扩大和加剧了其风险,拥有了现代农业生产的特殊风险,如:政策风险、制度风险和技术风险。在此基础上归纳出现代农业信贷风险的分类和分级,指出现代农业信贷具有政策风险、环境风险、信用风险、市场风险和操作风险,并深入探讨了形成我国银行业信贷风险的内部和外部因素。第四章,现代农业信贷风险评估指标体系的构建。本章对建立现代农业信贷风险评估指标体系的原则、作用和意义进行了阐述,探讨了现代农业龙头企业和现代农业开发区投资公司信贷风险评估指标体系的构建。第五章,现代农业信贷风险评估实证分析。本章运用实证分析方法对A企业的信贷申请从定性和定量两个角度评估了政策和环境因素对该企业的影响以及该企业的管理水平、资信状况、竞争能力、偿债能力、盈利能力、营运能力和发展能力,得出其信用等级评估报告,进而得出项目贷款评估报告,形成评估结论。第六章,现代农业信贷风险的内部控制。本章论述了商业银行风险内部控制的理论,指出要从培育员工的风险控制文化、建立科学的公司治理制衡机制、规范信贷管理和改进内部审计入手,建立现代农业信贷风险的内部控制体系。第七章,现代农业信贷风险的外部控制。本章针对现代农业信贷风险的外部控制问题,提出从市场准入、业务范围、资产流动性和资本充足性、贷款质量、高层管理人员和存款保险几个方面加强对金融机构的直接监管,建立由政策性农业保险、商业性农业保险、再保险和巨灾保险四个层次构成的现代农业信贷资产风险转化与补偿机制,加强社会信用体系的建设与完善以及在信息披露制度、法律监管和行业协会监管三个方面健全和完善市场约束机制,从而建立现代农业信贷风险的外部控制体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Modern agriculture has been a major trend of the world’s agricultural development for more than two hundred years. It is essentially a revolution in production methods. Finance is the core of modern economy and capital is the“blood”of economic development. In the process of the transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture, capital and capital input have been the most crucial factors in modern agricultural development. However, modern agriculture of cross-regional, large-scale production has more depended on policies, institutions and other factors. New means of agricultural production, such as anti-season mode, sheds mode, means increasing capital investment, and also means that influence by nature, the market and technology increase. agriculture and industrial production of the enterprise adding elements of modern business, associated with the enterprises operation, integrated production and brand marketing, has increased business risks and market risks in the process of industrialization of agriculture production. These all cause losses to the credit funds, which lead to credit risk. Therefore, the research on assessment and control of modern agricultural credit risk is of great theoretical and practical significance to promote the development of modern agriculture and the construction of a new socialist countryside.Based on the fundamental theory of modern agriculture, financial support theory of agricultural credit and risk management theory, this paper analyzed credit risks characteristics of modern agriculture, revealed creating mechanism of agricultural credit risk, constructed the assessment index system of modern agricultural credit risk, and also through analysis of financial indicators and expert fuzzy evaluation, researched modern agricultural credit risk assessment with quantitative and qualitative methods, in order to construct the internal and external control mechanisms of modern agricultural credit risk.Except the first chapter—introduction, and the eighth chapter—conclusions and recommendations, this paper can be divided into six chapters.The second chapter dealt with the theoretical basis of modern agricultural credit. Firstly, it explained and defines the concept of“modern agriculture”, pointing out the essential differences between modern agriculture and traditional agriculture, and it also analyzed thoroughly the basic features of modern agriculture and development models of Chinese modern agriculture; Secondly, it discussed the relationship between development of modern agriculture and financial support, indicating that the development of modern agriculture needs lots of credit support; finally, it showed that there exists the risk of modern agricultural credit, and demonstrated the process, method and evolution of current risk management, and illustrated the application of risk management theory in banking business. This chapter provided theory support for the other chapters.The third chapter discussed the creating mechanism of agricultural credit risk. This chapter analyzed the mode of modern agriculture production, based on regionalization, scale, and market-oriented. Modern agriculture has not only the general risks of agricultural production, such as: natural risk, operational risk and market risk, but also expanded and intensified many special risks of modern agricultural production, such as: policy risks, institution risks and technical risks. Based on this, it summed up classification and grade of the modern agricultural credit risk, pointed out that modern agriculture credit has policy risk, environmental risk, credit risk, market risk and operational risk, and researched deeply internal and external factors of the formation of China’s banking credit risk. The fourth chapter described the construction of assessment index system of modern agricultural credit risk. It analyzed the principle, function and significance of the construction of assessment index system of modern agricultural credit risk, and explored the assessment index systems of leading enterprises, newly-built enterprises, and investment companies in open-developing regions of modern agriculture.The fifth chapter discusses the empirical analysis of modern agricultural credit risk. This chapter has empirical analyzed credit application of company A, to make assessments of policy and environmental factors influence, to evaluate management level, credit status, competitiveness, solvency, profitability, operating capacity and development capacity of company A from qualitative and quantitative angles. Thus it got the assessment report of its credit grades, and made the assessment report on project loan.The sixth chapter constructed the internal control of modern agricultural credit risk. It discussed the internal control theory of commercial bank risk, and established internal controls system of modern agricultural credit risk, through training the risk control culture of staff, establishing scientific corporate checks and balances mechanism, completing credit management and improving internal audit.While the seventh chapter dealt with the external control of modern agricultural credit risk. In view of the problems of external control of modern agricultural credit risk, this chapter raised to strengthen direct supervision of financial institutions, from angle of the market access, scope of business, liquidity of assets and capital adequacy, loan quality, senior management and deposit insurance, to establish modern agricultural credit assets risks transform and compensation mechanisms, which is made up of policy agricultural insurance, commercial agriculture insurance, reinsurance and catastrophe insurance, to strengthen social credit system construction and improvement, and to improve and perfect the market discipline mechanism of disclosure system, the legal regulation and supervision of industry associations ,so as to establish a system of external control of modern agricultural credit risk.更多还原