【作者】 唐铁球；

【导师】 黄先海； 汪斌；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 政治经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 20世纪后半期,在科技进步和贸易与投资自由化的有力推动下,发达国家通过外包与垂直FDI等组织方式,将产品生产过程中的低端制造/加工/组装环节大规模转移到发展中国家完成,跨国界的产品内分工与贸易得以迅速发展。这种新型的国际分工与贸易对发达国家的生产与贸易方式、就业与产量、要素价格与国家福利、产业升级与贸易发展战略等产生了不同于最终产品分工与贸易的重大冲击,因而成为西方国际经济学最新前沿研究领域之一。加工贸易是发展中国家参与产品内分工的主要形式。改革开放以来,中国加工贸易发展迅猛,长三角和珠三角都已成为全球生产加工基地。然而,中国虽享有“世界工厂”美称,但却被长期锁定在产品内分工价值链的低端环节,难以有效控制链上要素定价权与利润分配权。进入21世纪,受人民币升值和劳动力成本上升等因素影响,中国作为制造大国的低成本竞争优势也在逐渐丧失。尤其是当前的后金融危机时代,随着国外市场需求严重萎缩,国内产业结构趋同与空间结构失衡明显恶化,中国制造业转型升级的压力与风险骤然凸显。在这样的现实背景下,如何准确测度中国制造业参与产品内分工与贸易的水平,如何正确评价中国制造业参与产品内分工与贸易的决定因素,如何合理选择中国制造业参与产品内分工与贸易的组织方式,如何提高中国制造业在产品内分工与贸易中的国际竞争力与租金收益份额,如何在后金融危机时代与新型国际分工格局下对中国制造业的赶超战略进行前瞻性调整,以实现中国由制造大国向制造强国的根本性转变等等,都是中国当前亟待解决的重大现实问题。顺应当代国际贸易以跨国公司全球化经营为主要扩展路径的经济现实,本文将标准贸易理论与制度经济学中的现代企业理论、管理学中的全球价值链理论结合起来,构建了一个融宏观与微观视角为一体的研究框架,一定程度上克服了国际贸易理论微观基础薄弱的缺陷,增强了国际理论的现实解释力,并在此框架下系统而深入的研究了中国制造业参与产品内分工与贸易的动因与收益。首先从中国制造业参与产品内分工与贸易的实际情况出发,融合投入产出法与进口中间投入占总投入比重法思想,克服以往研究多用投入产出法,仅从出口方面考察中国参与产品内分工与贸易程度的局限,从进口、出口、内销与国内增加值四个方面构建了一套符合中国国情的测度指标体系,并利用OECD提供的将中间投入和最终使用分为国内和进口两部分的中国非进口竞争型投入产出表和从UNcomtrade数据库中重新集结得到的中国制造业进出口数据,对中国制造业作了详尽的实证分析,较为全面地合理反映了其参与产品内分工与贸易的水平与程度。其次基于生产成本与交易成本的宏观层面,在标准贸易理论框架内,研究中国制造业参与产品内分工与贸易的宏观动因。在改造与拓展标准贸易理论基础上构建了基于比较优势与规模经济的产品内分工与贸易模型,对产品内分工与贸易的宏观动因给予了严谨的理论剖析。并以此为基础,结合Egger加工贸易影响因素理论框架,利用面板数据模型技术,兼顾生产成本与交易成本,分东部、中部与西部,就加工贸易进口与出口,对中国制造业参与产品内分工与贸易的宏观动因进行了实证检验,发现劳动力优势是中国制造业参与产品内分工与贸易的基础,制造业规模直接影响其参与产品内分工与贸易的程度,而包括法律制度质量在内的贸易与投资自由化、信息交流技术等也从交易成本方面对其参与产品内分工与贸易产生重要影响。再次基于生产成本与交易成本的微观层面,在现代企业理论框架内,研究中国制造企业参与产品内分工与贸易的微观动因,以及由此决定的生产组织方式。从发展中国家特别是中国的视角,对国际贸易理论研究的最新领域——全球生产组织理论,即产品内分工与贸易组织方式现有的理论体系进行初步的探索性拓展：一是以中国等发展中国家为母国,在Chakrabarti跨国公司FDI区位决定因素模型基础上,结合国际贸易和跨国公司国际化战略文献有关产品内分工组织方式的决定因素,尝试性构建了国内一体化、外包与垂直FDI的均衡选择模型,发现要素价格差异、范围经济、不完全契约下“敲竹竿”成本、关税、运输成本和汇率风险成本等,是影响企业参与产品内分工与贸易进而决定其生产组织方式选择的重要因素；二是以中国等发展中国家为东道国,在Antras、Grossman与Helpman模型和Reis模型基础上,尝试性构建了垂直FDI与外包对发展中国家经济福利影响模型,发现在外包对劳动力技能密集度要求高于垂直FDI的假设前提下,对经济福利的追求是影响发展中国家参与产品内分工与贸易,并对发达国家跨国公司发起的垂直FDI与外包进行主动选择的重要因素。然后分析在采取一定的组织方式参与产品内分工与贸易后,中国制造业与其他参与国之间分工与贸易收益的创造、占有与分配。突破现有文献从产业或产品角度评判中国制造业国际分工地位的传统思路,根据ISIC Rev.3. SITC Rev.3、BEC之间的对照表,在UNcomtrade数据库中重新集结中国制造业主要生产环节的进出口数据,从产品价值链层面对其竞争力给予了更为准确的评价。结果显示,中国制造业的竞争优势主要集中在低端的最终消费品与资本品环节,而高端的零部件环节则处于相对劣势。接着进一步分析中国制造业国际竞争力不强进而获利甚微的深层次影响因素。为此,突破现有文献从区位、制度和贸易等宏观层面分析产品内分工与贸易收益分配的传统思路,立足于微观生产层面,以Kaplinsky价值链租金理论为基础,引入Teece创新收益占有模型和Porter"五力”模型思想,构建了产品内分工与贸易的收益创造、占有与分配的理论框架,并以中国电子产业的iPod产品为案例作了实证分析。结果显示,在产品内分工价值链上,受产业演化与技术标准、专属制度与互补性资产等因素影响,中国制造企业处于全球领导企业的严厉控制之下,其利润增长空间极为有限。同时,受产品要素密集度、产品差异化、转换成本、分销渠道、知识产权等因素影响,中国制造企业的市场势力在纵横维度上均处于明显劣势,因此只能分获极为微薄的租金收益份额。最后从理论与实证两个方面归纳本文的基本结论,并在其基础上给出促进中国制造业发展的政策建议,包括摆脱外部依附的发展路径、改善制度与服务质量、实现市场势力与创新的良性互动、协调国内外产品内分工价值链、构建自己的全球生产网络和新的贸易网络、推行国际协调型产业政策,等等。更多还原

【Abstract】 During half of the 20th century, under the promotion of technological advances and trade and investment liberalization, the firm in developed country transferred on a large scale labor-intensive and low value-added links in the production chain to developing countries, which makes the intra-product specialization and trade develop rapidly. This new specialization makes a significant impact different from final goods trade on developed countries’domestic production and trade patterns, employment and output, factor prices and national welfare, industrial upgrading and trade development strategies, thus becoming one of the latest development in the areas of the Western International Economics. Processing trade is the main form of developing countries participating in the intra-product specialization. In the 21st century, China’s processing trade acquires rapid development. The Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta have become the global production and processing bases. However, although China has the reputation of "world factory", it has long been locked in the low-end value chain links of the intra-product specialization. And with the appreciation of RMB and the climb in labor costs, China’s part advantages as the global manufacturing center is also losing. More importantly, in the current era of post-financial crisis, with serious shortage of foreign market demand, obviously deterioration of convergence of industrial structure and imbalance of spatial structure, the risk and pressure of transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry suddenly appears. Based the realistic background, how to accurately judge the position of China’s manufacturing industry in the international intra-product specialization, how to choose a reasonable pattern of organization of China’s manufacturing industry participating in the intra-product specialization and trade, how to use the intra-product specialization and trade to speed up advancement of technology manufacturing and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry, how to prospectively adjust China’s surpassing strategy according to the division of international labor and international trade trends in the era of post-financial crisis in order to realize the strategic transformation from the developing way of pursuing dependent and low-carbon mode development to the developing way ways of pursuing independent innovation and low-carbon mode in China’s manufacturing industry etc, are China’s current great realistic problems waiting to be solved urgently.Complying with economic realities of globalization management of multinational corporations being the main propagation path of contemporary international trade, this paper combines the standard trade theory with the modern firm theory of institutional economics, the global value chain theory of management science to construct a research framework including macro-perspective and micro-perspective which strengthens micro-foundation of international trade theory, and systematically and in-depth study motivation and gains of China’s manufacturing industries participating in the intra-product specialization and trade.Firstly, through integrating ideas of the method of input and output and the method of the proportion of imported intermediate inputs in the total input, and according to the actual situation of China’s manufacturing industry participating the intra-product specialization and trade, constructs a measurement indicator system conforming to the situation in China from four aspects of import, export, domestic sale and domestic added, in order to more accurately and comprehensively reflect the the level and extent of China’s manufacturing industry participating the intra-product specialization and trade.Secondly, the paper analyses the basic macroeconomic motivation of China’s manufacturing industries participating in the intra-product specialization and trade within the framework of the standard trade theory based on production costs and transaction costs at the macro level. It analyses the macroeconomic motivations for the intra-product specialization and trade by extending standard trade model, And according to the frontal theoretical analysis, integrating Egger’s theoretical framework of factors influencing the processing trade, and using panel model technology and considering both production Costs and transaction costs, the regression analysis, separately on imports and outputs of processing trade and dividing China into Eastern part, central part and western part, is made to make comprehensive and in-depth empirical test on the influencing factors of China’s manufacturing industry participating the intra-product specialization and trade. Thirdly, the paper analyses the basic micro motivation and the resulting division organization mode of China’s manufacturing industries participating in the intra-product specialization and trade within the framework of the firm theory based on production costs and transaction costs of micro-level. it makes an exploratory development on a new field of international trade theory——the existing theoretical system of organization mode selection on the intra-product specialization standing position of developing countries especially China. First, based on Chakrabarti’s FDI location determinants of transnational company model and integrating the determinants of organization mode selection on the intra-product specialization in international trade and multinational strategy literatures, it builds a unity model of domestic integration, vertical FDI and outsourcing taking developing countries as home countries, and finds that economies of scope, "knock bamboo" costs under the incomplete contract, tariffs, transport costs and exchange rate risk cost are the important factors affecting enterprises’participation in the intra-product specialization and trade and then determine the choice of organization mode. Second, based on Antras, Grossman and Helpman model and Reis model, it constructs a model of vertical FDI and outsourcing affecting the economic welfare of developing countries as host countries, and finds that degree of labor skill-intensive products in developing countries is the important factors affecting enterprises’active choice of vertical FDI and outsourcing launched by developed-country TNCs.Then, the paper analyses that after taking some of the organizations involved in the intra-product specialization and trade, China’s manufacturing industries’income distribution in it. Breaking the idea that China’s position in international division is mostly judged from perspective of industry or product in existing literatures, it re-builds import and export trade data in main production phases of China’s manufacturing industry according to the conversion tables among ISIC Rev.3, SITC Rev.3, BEC, and gives further in-depth analysis of international competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry from product production links. The results show that the competitive advantage of Chinese manufacturing concentrates in the low-end consumer goods and capital goods link, the high-end components link is at a comparative disadvantage. And the paper further analyses deep-rooted factors of less competitive and thus less gains of China’s manufacturing industry. Breaking the way of analyzing the income distribution of the intra-product specialization and trade mostly from location, system and trade level in existing domestic and foreign literatures, and standing on the micro-production level of the intra-product specialization, the paper constructs an theoretical framework of creation, possession and distribution of gains from the intra-product specialization and trade based on Kaplinsky’s global value chain rent theory and introducing Teece’s innovative revenue share model and Porter’s "five forces "model. And through using it, the global value chains of Apple’s iPod are decomposed which are processed and assembled mostly in Chinese mainland, and their creation, possession and distribution of revenue are analyzed in detail. The results show that on product value chains, affected by technical standards and industry evolution, exclusively and complementary assets and other factors, China’s manufacturing enterprises are under the control of global leading enterprises. At the same time, affected by product factor intensity, product differentiation, switching costs, distribution channels, intellectual property and other factors, the market power of China’s manufacturing enterprises in vertical and horizontal dimensions are at a distinct disadvantage, so only gets a very modest share rental gains share.Finally, the paper summarizes its basic conclusions from theoretical and empirical aspects, and gives the corresponding countermeasures, including getting of external attachment development path, improving the quality of system and service, achieving positive interaction of market power and innovation, coordinating domestic and international value chain of the intra-product specialization and trade, implementing the Industrial Policy of international coordination, and so on.更多还原