【作者】 罗经华；

【导师】 金雪军；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 政治经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 通过金融危机发生的条件分析,将金融危机的发展阶段分拆成为可控的几个小部分,从产业层面上建立起一个由几个循环组成的经济动态圈,选择由实体经济领域(法人公司,以制造业和房地产业为例)、金融中介机构(银行业为例)为主体,加上政府宏观经济政策、国际金融资本市场和资产定价等危机爆发条件的分析,研究各产业的均衡与金融危机发生、发展的关系。把金融危机理论的研究与经济系统中各产业发展状况相联系,从产业的层面上,阐述银行业、房地产业和制造业的市场结构、市场行为和产业绩效。从各产业的市场结构、市场行为和市场绩效的不同特征中,分析研究产业均衡和产业间的互动机制。由银行业、房地产业与制造业的利率结构、信贷资金结构、价格结构、投资结构之间产生均衡,实现实体经济中产业结构的均衡。通过信贷结构与产业结构两者间的均衡与互动关系的分析,不难发现在资产价格变动变动的条件下,银行业、制造业产业和房地产业三者之间存在的均衡与互动的关系,也即银行业信贷资金结构的变动、以制造业为代表的实体经济中产业结构的变动和房地产业虚拟经济的特征之间存在的的均衡与互动关系。我国的实证研究表明,在银行业、房地产业和制造业产业均衡互动过程中,各产业内的市场结构、市场行为和市场绩效之间具有内在的发展规律。同时,产业间存在相互作用相互影响的关系。通过产业关联效应、价格协调和作用机制,达到价格结构变动、产业结构变动与投资结构变动的相互作用,以及利率结构变动、信贷结构变动与投资结构变动的相互作用。使得银行业、房地产业和制造业形成均衡互动发展。银行信贷短期内能够促进GDP和房地产业增长,银行信贷的增加对制造业在短期内具有抑制作用,随后产生促进作用,对GDP、制造业和房地产业具有持久的刺激效用。银行业贷款的增加同样也会带动制造业贷款和房地产业贷款的增长。房地产业对GDP和制造业具有促进作用,增加房地产信贷和制造业信贷的总量,但是对银行信贷却具有一定的替代效用。制造业的发展会促进房地产业的发展,信贷的增长和房地产信贷的增加。更多还原

【Abstract】 Through the analysis of the condition of financial crises, financial crisis stage of development of the spin-off of several small, be controlled from industrial level to establish a composed by several cycles, the choice of economic circle by dynamic economy, (the manufacturing and real estate, for example), the financial intermediaries (for example) for banking and government macro economic policies, international financial capital market and asset pricing etc crisis conditions of industrial analysis, research and balanced development of the financial crisis.The theory of financial crisis and economic system in the industry development, the level of industry, banking, real estate and manufacturing of market structure, market behavior and industrial performance. From the market structure, market behavior and market performance of different features, analysis and balanced industrial interaction mechanism.By the banking, real estate and manufacturing rate structure, credit capital structure, the price structure, the investment structure, realize the balance between economic entity of the industrial structure. Through the credit structure and industrial structure of the balance between interactive relationship with the analysis, find in asset prices change, change under the conditions of the banking industry, manufacturing industry and real estate industry of equilibrium between the interaction, i.e. banking credit capital structure change, represented in manufacturing industrial structure in the economic entity changes and characteristic of real estate industry of virtual economy exists between the equilibrium and the interactive relationship.Our empirical study shows that, in banking, real estate and manufacturing industries interaction process, the equilibrium within the industry of market structure, market behavior and market performance between the law of development. At the same time, the interaction between industrial interaction relationship. Through the industry association effect, the price mechanism, to coordinate and structure change, the price of the change of industrial structure and the investment structure, and the interaction between structure change interest rates, credit structure changes and investment structure change of interaction. Banking, real estate development and manufacturing formation equilibrium interaction. Bank credit short-term can promote GDP growth, the real estate industry and increase of bank credit for manufacturing in the short term, with subsequent inhibition of GDP, promote manufacturing and real estate has lasting stimulate utility. Banks loan may also increase driven manufacturing and real estate mortgage loan growth. Real estate industry to GDP and manufacturing, real estate has increased the amount of credit credit and manufacturing of bank credit, but has some alternative utility. The development of the manufacturing industry will accelerate the development of real estate industry, credit growth and housing credit.更多还原