【作者】 郭天配；

【导师】 哲晖；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 统计学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 随着科学技术水平的发展和人民生活质量的提高,环境污染也在加剧,特别是在发展中国家,伴随着经济的高速增长,能源枯竭、环境污染和生态破坏问题日益严重,环境污染问题越来越成为世界各个国家共同关注的课题之一。现有对环境污染问题的研究,多偏重于从库兹涅茨曲线、可持续发展、环境核算、环境与能源的关系等角度进行研究,而缺乏对现在宏观、中观及微观领域的环境评价；用经济技术方法对影响环境质量变动的因素进行分析与检验的文献也非常少见。有鉴于此,本文在第1章导论和第2章国内外文献综述基础上,主要进行了以下研究来探讨环境方面的有关问题。第3章,中国环境质量现状与存在问题分析。在本文界定了环境质量的概念后,利用“三废”排放(产生)变化趋势、不同阶段废气排放量及其中主要气体污染物排放量趋势、不同阶段工业固体废物产生量及排放量趋势体现中国环境质量整体发展现状；利用“三废”排放指标,尤其是COD和二氧化硫指标对地区环境质量做了比较,并进行了原因分析；分析了中国环境质量发展的产业结构效应和重化工业效应,界定了高排放行业；利用单位GDP污染物排放指标对东部、中部、西部和东北区域2007年的环境质量现状做了比较,发现各个区域都因个别省份废物排放较多导致整个区域环境质量的下降。第4章,中国环境质量的评价与比较。本章提出了可以进行环境质量评价的多种方法。利用层次分析法构建了环境质量评价指标体系,对1997-2008年环境质量综合评价结果表明：不同年度环境质量状况差异较大,但从2002年至今,以“三废”排放为代表的我国整体环境状况一直在恶化。用因子分析及聚类分析方法将我国31个省(市)环境质量状况做了分析与评价,结果表明：经济较为发达的东部地区环境负荷较低,环境质量较好；中部地区环境质量的好坏程度不均衡,整体上环境质量不算好,这些地区应做好重点污染减排工作；而经济较为落后的西部地区“三废”污染都很严重,污染排放强度较高,环境质量较差。同时本文利用层次分析法和聚类分析法将31个重点城市的环境质量状况分为5类,找到了各类城市的环境污染源。第5章,中国环境质量影响因素的实证研究。本章用经济计量方法和投入产出方法对影响中国环境质量的诸多要素做了实证研究。具体内容是：构建了六个环境与经济单因素模型,体现经济对环境的影响。实证研究结果表明：1985-2008年期间,单位GDP废水排放总量与人均GDP之间的回归关系可用反函数曲线来描述；不同研究阶段单位GDP工业废气排放总量、单位GDP工业固体废物排放总量、单位GDP工业二氧化硫排放总量与人均GDP之间的回归关系均可用不同系数的三次曲线来描述；不同时期单位GDP烟尘排放总量、单位GDP粉尘排放总量与人均GDP之间的回归关系均可用不同系数的带有AR(1)的“Power函数”曲线来描述。构建了六个环境质量影响因素多变量模型,体现多个因素对环境质量的影响。实证研究结果表明：GDP对废水排放总量呈显著的正向影响；工业废气排放总量正处于经济结构作用的上升阶段；工业能源消耗增加工业固体废物的产生量,污染治理投资的增加会减少工业固体废物的产生量；工业增加值、工业能源消耗对工业二氧化硫排放的影响是非线性的；增加污染治理投资是减少烟尘排放的有效方式；节能和加大污染治理投资是减少工业粉尘排放的有效选择。利用投入产出技术方法对二氧化硫、烟尘和粉尘排放变动的影响因素做了分解分析。研究结果表明：排放强度和生产技术对二氧化硫排放变动的影响最大,且生产技术的影响还要大于排放强度的影响；生产技术对烟尘排放变动的影响最大,排放强度、最终需求支出结构和最终需求总量对烟尘排放的影响相差不大；最终需求支出结构和最终需求总量对粉尘排放的影响相对较大,最终需求总量的影响远超过了排放强度和最终需求构成对粉尘排放的影响。第6章,提高中国环境质量水平的政策设计。防治环境污染的措施很多,针对前面章节对全国与区域环境质量现状及问题的分析,根据经济社会发展、能源消耗、需求支出结构、技术进步、产业结构等诸多因素对环境质量影响的实证分析结果,下面分别从强化政府责任、转变经济增长方式、促进消费方式的转变、建立绿色国民经济核算体系促进经济增长方式的转变、强化环境法制、发挥生物净化作用、提高全民环境忧患意识等方面提出促进环境质量优化与改进的具体措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of technology and improvement of life level, environmental pollution is getting more and more serious. With the economical development and energy drying up, environmental pollution and ecology destroying are becoming more and more serious. The problem of environmental pollution is becoming one of the problems cared by all the countries. The research about environmental pollution pays more attention to EKC, persistent developmemt, environmental calculating, the relationship between enviromemt and enengy, but pays less attention to environmental appraisal in the field of Macro view, Medium view and Micro view. The literatures using economical and technological methods to analyze and test the influence factors to the change of environmental quality are very few.So, the paper does some research to discuss problems as below based on chapter one and chapter two.Chapter Three:Environmental quality situation and problems. The paper embodies the whole present environmental quality situation by using the developing trend of three types of wastes emission,the emission quatity trend of waste gas, especialy the main gas pollutions and the trend of industry solid waste productivity and emission quatity in different phrase after defining the concept of environmental quality. The paper compares the environmental qulity in different regions by using the indexes of three types of wastes emission, especialy the indexes of COD and SO2. The paper analyzes the environmental quality development caused by industry structure and heavy industry development and defines the high emission industries. The paper compares the environmental quality in the field of East region, Midland, West region and the Northeast region in 2007 using the index of pollution emission unit GDP and finds the more waste emission of single Province is the main reason that reduces the drop of environmental quality in the whole region.Chapter Four:The appraisal and comparison to environmental quality in China. Many methods are put forward in this chapter. The paper uses AHP method to build environmental quality index-evaluation system to appraise the environmental quality between the year 1997 and 2008. The result shows that the environmental quality has large distance among different years and the environmental quality represented by three three types of wastes emission is always deteriorating.The paper uses Factor Analysis method and Hierarchical Cluster method to analyze and appraise the environmental quality of thirty-one provinces (cities). The result shows that the environmental quality is well in East region and the environmental pressure is low, the environmental quality is unbalance in Midland and the environmental qulity is not well, three types of wastes emission in West region are all serious, the emission intensity is higer and the environmental quality is bad. At the same time, the paper uses AHP method and Hierarchical Cluster method to divide the thirty-one cities by five categories and finds the pollution reason of every category of city.Chapter Five:The positive research on the influence factor of Chinese environmental quality. The paper does positive research to the factors influencing environmental quality change with the econometrics and I-O method.Building six single variable models to embody the influence of economy on environmental. The research results show that the inverse function curve can describe the relation between total waste emission and per capita GDP between the year 1985 and 2008. The regression relation between the total industrial waste gas emission unit GDP and per capita GDP, the regression relation between the total industry waste solid emission unit GDP and per capita GDP, the regression relation between total industrial SO2 emission unit GDP and per capita GDP can be described by different cubic curve in different phrase. The regression relation between total dust emission unit GDP and per capita GDP, the regression relation between total powder emission unit GDP and per capita GDP can be described by different cubic curve with AR (1) term in different phrase.Building six multivariable models to embody the influence of many factors on environmenl. The research results show that the influence of GDP on total waste emission is positive, the influence of economy structure on industrial waste water is in the period of increasing, industrial energy consumption increases waste solid production, the influence of industrial added value and industrial energy consumption on SO2 emission is nonlinear, increasing investment is the effective method to decrease dust emission, energy saving and increasing investment is the effective method to decrease podwer emission.Using I-O method to analyze the influence factors on SO2 emission change, dust emission change and powder emission change. The research results show that the influence degree of emission intensity and production technology on SO2 emission is large and the influence degree of production technology is larger than emission intensity. The influence degree of emission intensity, expenditure structure of the final demand and the total final demand on SO2 emission is almost same and the influence degree of production technology is the largest. The influence degree of expenditure structure of the final demand and the total final demand on powder is relative larger and the influence degree of the total final demand on powder exceeds the influence degree of emission intensity and expenditure structure of the final demand on powder.Chapter Six:the designment of policy to improve environmental quality. The paper puts forward many detail policies to optimize and improve the environmental quality based on the positive ananlysis result. Those policies are enhancing governmental responsibility, changing the way of economical increasement, promoting the change of consumption way, building green SAN to promote tha change of economical increasement way, enhancing environmental law, playing the important role of biological purification, improving disaster consciousness of all citizens to environment.更多还原