【作者】 张巍；

【导师】 孙文学；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 财政学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 金融危机发生的两年来,由于海外消费需求锐减,我国内需不足问题更加凸显,尽管政府采取了系列措施拉动居民消费需求,但是我国内需低迷问题并没有得到有效解决。危机来临之前,我国一些生产过剩行业由于能与美国等发达国家的消费市场形成互补,海外市场的消费需求替代了国内消费需求的不足,消化了我国部分过剩产能,降低了我国发生过剩危机的可能性,但也同时形成了我国东南沿海部分企业对海外市场的严重依赖。金融危机发生后,西方国家居民长期依靠透支,提前消费、过度消费的生活方式遭到了惩罚,致使我国外需市场严重萎缩。加之,以美国为首的发达国家为保护本国经济相继实行了严格的贸易保护主义,限制我国相关商品出口,使我国的产品出口形式进一步看紧,降低了收入不高的居民生活水平,对我国的经济社会可持续发展提出了严峻挑战!随着经济水平的提高,我国原有的生产成本优势正在削弱,这是经济发展的必然后果。与此同时,中国的经济发展模式在东南亚等周边国家形成的示范效应,使我国的成本优势遇到了极大挑战。长期以来,我国的经济发展依然没有挣脱西方国家先污染后治理的老路,全国相当一部分地区在经济快速发展的同时也付出了极大的环境代价。我国多数出口企业都属于能耗高、污染重的企业,发达国家一方面享受着中国用自身污染和能源消耗的代价为其带来的优越生活,另一方面又指责中国对世界的环境污染要负有主要责任,这样的发展带来的社会成本过于高昂。为支持企业出口,各种优惠鼓励政策使我国政府付出了巨大的税收权益。由于各种原因,我国市场经济的地位并没有得到世界广泛的认可。每每国家间有些风吹草动,反倾销的报复手段就会降临到我国的出口企业,我国政府为鼓励出口而给予的财税让渡所带来的价格优势瞬间化为乌有,可谓得不偿失。十年内中国两次面对外来的金融危机,两次采用了扩张型的政策,这两次应对危机要解决的问题和侧重有何不同?只有回答好这个问题,才能真正的化“危”为“机”。我国居民消费水平低下说明上次扩张型的政策只解决了内需不足的表面问题,深层次的社会发展问题并没有得到根本性的解决。导致我国居民消费不足的最根本原因,在于居民收入没有与经济保持同步增长,存在着国富民弱的现象,加之,各种社会福利保障措施不到位,致使老百姓无钱消费,也不敢消费。在基础设施相对健全的情况下,居民消费尤其是对农村居民的消费和居民可持续消费拉动就成为政府不得不面对的问题。经济危机、外需萎缩形成了一种倒逼机制,迫使政府在外在压力的情况下,痛下决心解决经济运行的质量问题。这个问题解决得好,经济危机对中国而言就不仅仅是“危”,更是一种“机”论文通过对以下三种方法达到了基本的写作目的：第一,进行了学科交叉研究。论文将财政学与经济学、消费经济学、生态经济学融合在一起进行学科交叉研究,在研究中注重对信息的综合处理和分析,期望通过这样的交叉研究建立一个对我国居民消费需求研究的新视角,并能够发掘到影响居民消费需求的普遍规律和我国居民消费的特殊性。第二,进行了比较研究。论文多次运用比较研究的方法,既包括了对我国历史数据的纵向比较,也包括了对同期的其他国家资料的横向比较。通过比较研究方法的运用,探寻了我国居民消费的特殊性并检验了国外经验在中国特殊环境下的适用性。第三,采用了实证分析的方法。论文比较分析方法的运用多是建立在对大量数据进行了经验分析的基础上的。历史数据的运用对于总结规律,挖掘问题受益很大,对论点论据的证明提供了最具说服力的帮助。通过实证分析的方式,论证了财税政策对拉动居民消费的有效性,进而说明在诸多财税工具中,哪种刺激方式更利于中国拉动居民消费,为政策建议的科学性进行了充分的论证。全文由两大部分七章组成,第一部分是我国居民消费现状与影响我国居民消费的因素分析。论文首先介绍了目前国内外在消费需求理论方面的研究进展情况,以及国内外学者在扩大国内基本需求方面提出的相应财税对策的研究。接下来重点分析了目前我国居民消费的现状,指出在国内居民消费需求中,农村居民消费需求的快速下降是我国居民消费需求低迷的主要原因,拉动我国居民消费应当首先拉动农村居民消费。最后,论文分析了影响我国居民消费的因素有哪些。本部分内容涵盖了论文第一章至第四章的内容。在第一部分的基础上,第二部分主要针对我国居民收入增长乏力提出了财税对策。论文首先回顾和分析了近十年来我国所实施的扩张性财政政策,并进行了简要评述,为了进一步说明财税政策对拉动内需的有效性,作者运用了实证分析的方法进行了政策的有效性比较,为提出政策解决思路奠定了理论基础。为了提出更加有针对性的解决思路,论文对我国目前财税政策中对拉动内需存在着掣肘的因素进行了探讨,在此基础上,就我国为应对金融危机应当采取哪些应对措施提出了看法,并进而指出在制度上应当如何完善。本部分内容包括论文的第四章至第七章。通过研究发现,财税政策对解决我国居民消费不足的问题具有很大的影响力,为实现这个作用,必须建立新型的以公平正义和可持续发展为导向的财税体制。扩大居民消费是一个被国内学者广泛研究的问题,要想做到创新难度极大。通过研究,作者在如下方面有个人的见解：1.定义了“基本消费”的概念。这个概念的核心思想是,人们在消费的时候仅仅考虑物的有用性,而不考虑有用性之外的其他因素,属于较低层次的消费。这个概念的定义,是为了说明在收入低下的时候,消费品的功能性作用是消费重点,其他诸如环保因素则受制于收入因素,可以忽略不计。2.发展了“可持续消费”的概念。这个概念并不是一个新生事物,作者的突破是,在与“基本消费”的比较中,建立了制约可持续消费的资源约束和收入约束两个关联性不是很大的概念间的联系,即可持续消费是收入约束力降低的情况下才会形成的一个居民高层次消费需求。3.通过比较再分配后居民收入格局的前后变化,得出了目前税收制度对我国居民收入的调节功能弱化,政府运用财政支出方式解决居民收入约束的问题更加有效率,主张从社会稳定的角度应谨慎面对财产税改革,应着力培养中国的中产阶级阶层。论文的写作涉及了经济学、财政学、生态经济学和消费经济学等各个方面,受学识所限,作者没有办法对这些领域的所有知识运用自如,写作中难免有知其然而不知其所以然的情况,甚至出现错误。有些新的观点还不成熟,缺乏实践检验,仅代表一家之谈。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the economic crisis took place, the overseas consumption demand has decreased dramatically. The problem of overproduction has become more serious. Because we didn’t have a relatively great domestic consumption power, only a limited amount of the surplus could be consumed domestically. It has led to the crisis that the enterprises of the seaside cities in the Southeastern part of China face. These enterprises have been depending on the overseas market for quite a long time. The crisis has led to the failure of many export-oriented enterprises. A large amount of peasants have been laid off. Many workers have become jobless, which has decreased the living standard the residents whose incomes are low, and which has worsen the slack situation of domestic demand. All these have posed a serious threat to our sustainable economic development.The root cause for the insufficiency of domestic demand is that residents’incomes have not been in pace with the economic development, which has resulted in the phenomenon of poor people in wealthy countries. In addition, the social welfare is not in the place, therefore people have no extra money to spend, and dare not spend either.Excess supply is the elementary form of overproduction. It can easily change into excess production capacity, which actually has been popular in China. Before the crisis, the overproduction industries formed complementation with the consumption markets in developed countries, such as America. Thus the demand in overseas market covered the shortage of the consumption demand in domestic market, helped to deal with the excess production capacity, and lowered the possibility of overproduction crisis. After the crisis, western people were punished for their lifestyles which depended on overdraft, deficit spending and excessive consumption, which led to the dramatic shrinkage of our overseas market. If the developed countries take rigid measures of trade protectionism to protect their own economies, restrict the exports of the relevant commodities, or fall out with our country and impose economic sanctions against us, the exports of our products will be even more insufficient, which will lead to overproduction or even economic crisis.With the improvement of our economic level, the cost advantage is becoming smaller and smaller. It is a natural outcome. The model effect of our pattern in the surrounding countries such as those in Southeastern part of the world has challenged our cost advantage. Meanwhile, our economic development has not broken away from the traditional way of pollution by western countries first and then treatment. In a substantial amount of places of China, with the rapid economic development, we have paid heavy prices for the environmental pollution. Most of the export-oriented enterprises are of high energy consuming and heavy polluting. The developed countries on the one hand enjoy the comfortable lives which are brought at the cost of pollution and the consumption of energy in China, and on the other hand blame the environmental pollution and the heavy social cost on us Chinese. In order to support the exports, our government has relinquished many tax rights. Out of various reasons, the market economy of China has been widely recognized. Whenever there is a sign of disturbance or trouble, the export-oriented enterprises will face the challenge of anti-dumping. The price advantage brought by our government’s tax release will come to naught immediately. The loss outweighs the gain.Within ten years China has faced the financial crisis from foreign countries. We took the policy of expansion twice. What was the difference between the problems we faced and the emphasis that we put when the two crises was ongoing? Only when we give a good answer to the question can we change the crisis into opportunity. Insufficient domestic demand implies that the policy of expansion has only solved the superficial problem, and has not solved the problem of social development radically. If the infrastructure is robust, residents’consumption, especially that of the residents in rural areas and the residents’sustainable consumption have become the problems that we have to face. The economic crisis and the shrinkage of the foreign demand have helped to develop a reversed transmission of the pressure for easing monetary condition, which forced Chinese government to make a downright determination to solve the quality problem in economic operation. If we can solve the problem well, to China the economic crisis is more of an opportunity than a crisis.The dissertation reaches its goal by three methods. Firstly, the interdisciplinary study has been carried out. The finance, economics, consumption economics, ecological economics have been combined. The study has focused on the comprehensive analysis and processing of information. We expect that a new perspective to study our residents’ consumption demand can be found out, a universal rule which affects the residents’ consumption demand and the particularity of their consumption can be explored. Secondly, a comparative study has been done. It includes both the longitudinal comparison between the historical data and the lateral comparison among the synchronous data of many other countries. By comparison the particularity of the residents’consumption has been probed and the adaptability of foreign experience to the special circumstance in China has been tested. Thirdly the empirical analysis has been done. The comparative analysis is based on the empirical analysis of a large amount of data. The historical data have benefited summing up rules and have given persuasive help to testify the arguments and the grounds of arguments. By way of positive analysis, demonstrates the fiscal policy effectiveness in stimulating consumption, and then explain the many tax tools, which stimulation is more conducive to stimulating household consumption in China.The dissertation is composed of two parts which are seven chapters. The first part is a comprehensive elaboration on current status and theories. It has introduced the development of consumption demand theories both in China and abroad. It has also presented the study of relevant taxation policies on enlarging domestic basic need proposed by scholars home and abroad. The residents’consumption demand is difficult to enlarge because it is under the thumb of consumption capacity and effective supply capacity. The water chestnut with two pointed ends is used to express the constraints. The right pointed angle represents income constraint, while the left one represents that of the resources provision. Because of the author’s limited study ability, the new concept does not mean a new theory. The author has only attempted to make a correlation analysis of the income constraint and the resource constrains which have significantly affect the residents consumption demand in order to expand the knowledge of the factors which affect residents’consumption demand and to make out the corresponding solutions. The part is composed of the first four chapters.Based on the first part, the second part has made a detailed analysis of the diamond constraint on our residents’consumption demand, and has demonstrated the causes, effects and the financial countermeasures of the income constraint and the resource constraint. In terms of income constraint, the author focuses on the institutional difficulty that the current fiscal and taxation system faces when breaking the income constraint. In this part the author has pointed out that the fiscal expenditure system can be more effective than taxation policy. It has been proposed that we should establish new taxation system which is just and fair. The author has advocated that we should take the reformation of property tax seriously and that we should concentrate on cultivating the middle class. In terms of resources constraint, the author focuses on how to promote the upscaling of the industrial structure by fiscal and taxation policies and how to direct residents to consume sustainably. The part is composed of chapter 5, chapter 6 and chanpter7.After study, we have found out fiscal and taxation policies have a great effect on solving the problem of our residents’underconsumption. In order to realize it, we have to establish a new fiscal and taxation system which is directed by fairness, justice and sustainable development.Increasing residents’ consumption has been an issue which has been studied extensively in China. It is difficult to bring forth new ideas. After detailed study, the author has proposed the following personal viewpoints. Firstly, the concept of "diamond constraint has been proposed for the first time". The nuclear concept is that in short terms the residents’.consumption is restricted by income constraint and that in long terms it is restricted by resource constraint. After the concept was proposed, the constraints on our residents’consumption demand have been integrated. It can help to plan and solve the underconsumption of our residents, and clarify the government officials’train of thought. Thus they can formulate the policies with a well-defined objective in mind. Thus the efficiency of formulating and executing the policies can be increased. Secondly the concept of "basic consumption" has been defined. The nuclear concept is when people consume, they only take the usefulness of entities into consideration without considering other factors which belong to the consumption of the low level. The functionality of the consumer goods should be the focus of consumption. The other factors such as environmental protection are restricted by the income factor and can be ignored. Thirdly the concept of "sustainable consumption" has been developed. The concept is not new, but the breakthrough is that the link between resource constraint and income constraint has been established although the correlation between them is not so strong. The correlation shows that when the income constraint is not so restrict the sustainable consumption can be developed into a consumption demand of a high level. Fourthly, by comparing the different income structures before and after the reallocation, we can draw the conclusion that the regulating function of the current taxation policies is weak, and the method of fiscal expenditure, which can be used to solve income restraint, can be more effective. Fifthly, the new tax system of "being fair and just" has been established. It has been advocated that we should deal with the property reformation prudently, and cultivate the middle class in China.The dissertation touches upon economics, fiance, ecological economics and consumption economics. My knowledge is limited; therefore I could not have an excellent command of everything. I can not escape the circumstance when I know how but do not know why, or even when I make a mistake. Some of the new viewpoints are not mature, and they are personal.更多还原