【作者】 姜美华；

【导师】 陆建桥；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 财务管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 20世纪80年代以来,国际银行业发生了一系列危机事件和丑闻,特别是2007年金融危机以来,全球金融业正面临着自上世纪30年代以来最为严峻的挑战。在不到一年的时间里,世界从一个经济高速增长和适度通货膨胀的大稳健时期(Great Moderation)走向了全面动荡,原有金融机构或破产或正在被接管,政府不得不对有可能引发更大的系统性风险的核心金融机构进行大规模干预。这进一步说明相当长一个时期的流动性过剩和低利率环境引发了金融机构过度的杠杆行为,在抵御非预期损失方面能力不足,即没有预留充足的资本来缓释资本,从而理论界和实务界纷纷认识到商业银行资本管理的重要性以及管理中存在的问题,1988年巴塞尔委员会制定“巴塞尔协议”为国际银行业营造了资本外部管理的框架结构。此后,西方银行业逐渐地、越来越多地从自身业务角度而非从被监管者角度来看待资本管理的问题,经济资本管理在商业银行管理中的地位逐渐提高,各国商业银行都在研究适合本行特色的经济资本管理体系,大量先进的风险计量技术、经济资本分配方法等被应用于商业银行风险管理过程中,经济资本占用量也成为商业银行考核经营绩效的重要指标,经济资本占用成为约束业务发展的重要因素。日益先进的金融技术和不断涌现的金融创新产品以及市场化程度的不断加深,使得我国商业银行业务及其风险组合变得更为复杂,更加难以辨认和计量,传统的主要依靠专家判断和简单的风险计量来识别和管理风险的做法,已经远远不能满足中国商业银行所面临的严峻形势。2007年开始的金融危机虽然对我国商业银行冲击较小,主要是由于我国商业银行开放化程度较低、衍生产品交易量较少等,并不能说明我国商业银行的管理要好于国外银行,相反我国商业银行与国外银行的管理水平差距较大。中国商业银行必须朝着国际银行业风险管理的发展方向,结合中国实际状况,从商业银行内部管理角度出发,研究如何运用经济资本管理来抵御全面风险,提高风险的管理水平和防御能力,提高面临重大不利事件的应对能力。本文在商业银行风险管理理论和经济资本管理理论基础上,结合国外先进银行经济资本管理经验以及国际上通用的先进的经济资本计量模型和分配模型以及我国商业银行的实际,应用实证分析与规范分析相结合、历史分析与比较分析相结合、宏观分析与微观分析相结合的方法,从“问题提出→文献述评→理论分析→实证研究→政策建议”五个层面逐步展开研究。全文共分七章,具体内容如下：第1章“导论”对全文进行了概括性地介绍,阐述了本文的选题背景、研究范围、国内外研究综述等；第2章“商业银行经济资本管理理论分析”是本文的理论分析部分,主要研究了风险管理理论以及经济资本管理理论,为后续的研究提供理论依据；第3章“商业银行经济资本计量”,研究了巴塞尔新资本协议的风险计量方法,结合我国数据积累情况、信息系统建设情况等研究了我国商业银行目前实施风险计量的现实选择；第4章“商业银行经济资本配置”,主要研究了经济资本的配置方法和内容,以及我国商业银行现阶段的现实选择；第5章“商业银行经济资本应用”主要研究了如何将经济资本管理理念和方法应用到商业银行的绩效考核、预算管理和贷款定价方面；第6章“我国商业银行经济资本管理的改进建议”主要是在前面几部分理论分析和实证研究的基础上,结合国际先进实践经验,对本文的研究结论进行了归纳总结,提出了我国商业银行实施经济资本管理具体可行的路线途径和改进建议；第7章是本文小结。通过上述研究主要得出以下结论：(1)信用风险经济资本计量：我国商业银行经过近几年的数据清洗、数据补录及数据整合,数据质量不断提高,同时各行已经完成或正在建设针对客户的信用评级系统和针对债项的质量分类系统,可以确定贷款的违约概率,但是我国现阶段征信体系不规范,外部评级标准不统一,外部评级技术水平低,数据库建立时间较短,回测检验需要时间,且数据收集维护、信息系统建设还需要一定的年限,所以在现阶段我国商业银行信用风险计量应当采用内部评级初级法。在应用内部评级初级法时,需要根据我国商业银行实际情况,在确定PD时充分考虑客户内部信用评级情况,并参考外部评级情况,尽可能将影响PD因素考虑其中,如客户信用等级的历史和未来迁徙情况,提高PD的准确性。(2)市场风险经济资本计量：目前我国实行有管理的浮动汇率制度,人民币汇率变动并不完全由货币市场的供求关系决定的,政府意志在其中仍发挥着重要的作用,所以我国目前的汇率制度仍然是一定目标区间内的固定汇率制度,这就使得我国商业银行目前面临着较低的市场风险,经济资本配置对风险敏感度要求不高,因此,在我国商业银行积累历史数据、熟悉国际先进计量技术、完善信息系统的过程中可以采用巴塞尔新资本协议推荐的标准法进行市场风险计量。(3)操作风险经济资本计量：我国商业银行普遍存在内控制度不健全、组织分工不当、业务流程不合理、管理力度薄弱、信息系统技术水平低、业务操作手段落后等问题,因此面临的操作性风险较大,必须对操作风险进行必要的经济资本配置。鉴于我国商业银行在操作风险管理方面的技术比较落后,缺少高级计量法所要求的大量历史数据、先进的计量技术、完善的信息系统等,因此,现阶段可以采用标准法或替代标准法,但比例指标的设定水平应略高于监管所要求的水平。(4)经济资本配置与监管资本要求：商业银行要在年报中公布资本充足率水平,虽然在多数情况下,监管资本要求并不能成为分配资本的准绳,也不是衡量商业银行资本配置效率好坏的方法,但是监管资本作为一项强制指标,在我国目前商业银行经营管理水平不高的情况下,制约着业务规模的扩大,影响着内部资本配置过程,所以在研究经济资本配置时,应将监管资本要求作为一个重要的考虑因素。(5)经济资本配置路线：我国商业银行资产价格的波动性和相关性很难测量,且资产价格的波动性不大,同时作为资产中较大比例的贷款,主要执行有调整的固定利率,收入的波动不大,我国商业银行可先采用系数法进行经济资本配置。同时将“自上而下”路线和“自下而上”路线结合起来,即先“自下而上”进行经济资本计量,确定各业务层面的非预期损失和相应的经济资本需求,再由总行根据发展战略、业务经营重点、风险偏好等对业务层面计算出的经济资本总量进行动态、双向、多维度调整后,再“自上而下”进行经济资本配置。(6)通过RAROC指标将经济资本思想和方法贯穿于商业银行绩效考核、预算分配和贷款定价,将风险管理思想贯穿于日常业务经营管理过程和日常内部管理过程,真正将风险思想贯穿于每位员工行动中。本文主要创新之处主要体现在以下三个方面：(1)弥补国内关于商业银行资本管理理论研究的不足。从现有的文献看,国内研究商业银行资本管理的学者大多从巴塞尔资本协议的角度来研究商业银行外部资本的满足,很少涉及满足内部风险管理需要的资本要求,即使涉及也是从股东利益最大化的角度来得出内部资本要求。本文基于银行风险管理的视角,系统研究了适合中国商业银行实际经济资本管理体系,弥补了国内相关理论研究稀缺的状况。(2)结合我国商业银行改革和发展的实践。本人长期从事大型商业银行监管工作,持续国际监管资本发展和经济资本发展,特别是本轮危机后国际监管资本最新发展方向,对于我国商业银行改革和发展的历程比较了解,对于商业银行的现状分析透彻,能够将理论和实践、将国内现状和国际发展趋势结合起来分析问题,提出的建议具有较强的操作性和针对性。(3)在现有银行资本管理相关理论和实践成果的基础上,结合中国银行业发展现状和趋势,提出了适合中国银行业的、具有前瞻性和可行性的商业银行经济资本计量、分配的方法,提出我国商业银行在进行经济资本计量的现实选择,在进行经济资本配置时要同时考虑监管资本要求和贷款规模限制,为实践中商业银行实施经济资本管理体系作了有益的探索。由于个人能力和客观条件的限制,本文尚存在一定的局限：(1)本文未能对现有的风险计量模型进行改进,只能根据我国商业银行实际状况和外部环境,尽可能将能够考虑到的影响经济资本计量的参数囊括于模型当中。本人将在以后的学习和工作中加强对数理模型的分析和应用。(2)虽然本人在论文写作过程中同商业银行经济资本管理人员进行了大量的理论和实践探讨,但由于本人研究能力有限,所以对于我国商业银行经济资本管理中存在的问题和原因分析可能不够深入,提出的建议在实际应用时操作性有待考证。2010年我国要有6家商业银行开始执行巴塞尔新资本协议,本人将时刻关注巴塞尔新资本协议的最新改进以及在这些银行应用中存在的问题,结合经济金融理论提出更有操作性的改进建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the 1980s, the international banking industry happened a series of crisis and scandals, especially since the economic crisis in 2007, the international financial industry is facing the most severe challenge since the 1930s. In less than one year, the world goes to all-round unrest from Great Moderation in which economy grows fast and inflation is moderate. Some of the original financial institutions went bankrupt and some been taken over, the government had to intervene the core financial institutions which could cause systematic risk on a large scale. This suggests further that excess liquidity and low interest environment for a long time have caused over leveraged behavior of financial institutions, lacking of the capacity to resist unexpected loss, which means not reserve enough capital to release capital slowly, so both the theory field and the practice field are aware of the importance of capital management of commercial banks and the problems in management, in 1998 the Basle Committee made "Basle Agreement" which built the frame of outside management of capital for the international banking industry. Thereafter, the western banking industry gradually and more and more treats the problem of capital management from the aspect of their own business but not from the aspect of being regulated, the position of economic capital management in commercial banking management is improved gradually, commercial banks in different countries are studying the economic capital management system which suits their own characteristic, a great deal of advanced risk measure technology, methods of distributing economic capital are applied in the risk management process of commercial banking industry, economic capital consumption has been an important index of checking the operation achievements of commercial banks, economic capital consumption has been an important factor which constrains business development.More and more advanced financial technology and the continually emerging financial innovative products as well as the deepen of marketization have made the business and its risk combination of our commercial banks more and more complicated, harder to recognize and measure, traditional method which depends on expert judgments and simple risk measurement to recognize and manage risk can not meet the severe situation faced by Chinese commercial banking industry. Even through the shock in our commercial banking industry by the economic crisis started in 2007 is slight which due to our low open level of commercial banks, small volume of derivative trade, but it cannot suggest that our management of commercial banks is batter than abroad, on the contrary, there is a big gap between our management of commercial banks and abroad banks. Chinese commercial banks must go in the direction of international banking risk management, combined with the reality of our country, from the aspect of internal management of commercial banks, study how to use economic capital management to resist all-round risk, improve the level of management and capacity of resistance, enhance the capacity of coping with significant disadvantageous matters.Based on the theory of risk management of commercial banks and the theory of economic capital management, this paper combines the experience of advanced banks abroad and economic capital econometric models as well as distributive models which are used universally all over the world and also the reality of our commercial banks. With the aids of methods of normative research and empirical study, historical research and comparical research, macroanalyse and microanalyse,problem posing, theoretical analysis, realistic background analysis and empirical study are carried out step by step. The whole paper includes 7chapters, as follows:Chapter 1 is an abstract. This chapter gives a general instruction of the whole paper; Chapter 2 is focus on the basic theory of economic capital management of commercial banks.Chapter 3 is one of key sections in the paper, mainly studying the measurement of economic capital. This chapter mainly introduces the measurement of credit risk, market risk and operational risk and China’s commercial banks choose standard approach to implement the risk measurement currently. Chapter 4 is one of the most important part of this thesis. It mainly studies the configuration and China’s commercial banks choose standard approach Chapter 5 mainly focuses on the practical application of economic capital management in commercial banks performance assessment, budget management and loan pricing. Chapter 6 is a summary of the conclusion which based on the previous theoretical analysis and empirical test. It researches the history, status and applications of commercial banks in China, then analyses problems in economic capital management. At last, it puts forward specific and practical ways to implement the proposed route combining with the advanced experience of foreign banks.Chapter 7 gives the summary of the paper. According to the above, the following conclusions can be drawn as following. (1)the measurement of credit risk. Considering the practical status of our commercial banks, foundation IRB should be accepted to measure the credit risk.(2)the measurement of market risk.At present, our commercial banks should introduce standardized approach of BASELLⅡ.(3)the measurement of operating risk. In the face of being short of adequate historical data, advanced measurement technology and perfect information system, standardized approach should be accepted, but the level of proportion should be heightened.(4)economical capital configuration and regulation capital demandment. regulation capita is a compellent guildline in our country, so we should conderate it in configuraing economical capital.(5)economical capital configurational route:combining top-to-bottom with bottom-to-top.(6)applying RAROC to performance assessment,budge distribution and loan price.The innovation of the study can be presented in three aspects.(1) this thesis mainly concentrated on studying economical capital systemly that fitting our commercial banks in theory(2) suggestions of this thesis were operational and aimly.(3)this thesis provided the practical choice of our commercial banks in measurement of risk and configuration of economical capital.At last, I had to say there was some limitation in this thesis.(1) this thesis was lack of improving risk measurement model(2)this thesis operation in practice was required to be validated.The above limitation were the directions for my later research.更多还原