【作者】 张宏霞；

【导师】 武献华；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 国民经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 2008年,由美国次贷危机引发的国际金融危机席卷全球,各国政府在凯恩斯主义政府干预经济的理论指导下,纷纷以前所未有的力度干预经济。我国也实施了刺激经济发展的4万亿元的政府主导性投资计划,并要求地方政府提供相应的配套资金,由此各地方政府投资热情空前高涨,大大超过了中央的预计。实际上,早在经济危机之前,—直以来,中国转型期的一个最重要的特征就是地方政府在地区经济乃至全国经济的发展中一直扮演着重要角色,因此地方政府行为对经济增长和经济发展的影响一直备受学术界的关注,成为分析诸多经济问题的一个重要视角。中国地方政府投资行为是影响中国宏观经济运行的重要因素。改革开放30年中,中国地方政府投资行为绩效显著。既有在既定约束条件下追求利益最大化进行理性选择,从而促进经济高速增长、改善就业等的一面；也有在急于出政绩和局部乃至个人利益驱动下片面追求GDP增长、限制有限资源与大规模劳动力有效结合的一面。地方政府投资行为合理,不仅有利于实现该地区经济的全面、协调、可持续发展,而且有利于促进整个国家区域经济发展战略的实现,有效增强国家的综合国力和提高广大人民群众日益增长的物质文化生活水平；相反,若地方政府投资行为不合理,则势必导致有限投资资源配置的浪费和低效,造成投资活动盲目攀比和无序竞争,最终导致和阻碍区域内和整个国家经济发展水平的提高。地方政府投资作为地方政府驾驭市场的必备工具,对于促进地区经济增长、优化资源配置、改善民生、引导其他投资、扩大就业、保护生态环境等方面具有举足轻重的作用。地方政府在各自投资行为中表现出不同的效果。我国自实行分权以来,为促进本地区乃至全社会生产力的提高,满足本地区广大人民的物质文化需要而在辖区范围内进行的投资活动正在如火如荼的展开,并且有愈演愈烈之势,在此背景下,如何客观公正的评价地方政府投资的效应问题具有十分重要的理论与现实意义。鉴于此,本文通过运用相关基础理论和数理模型,采用计量经济学的方法,对我国现阶段地方政府投资的经济增长效应、结构改善效应、民生福利效应进行重点研究,并提出一些有针对性的建议。希望本文的研究对提高地方政府投资的效应能够提供有益的理论依据和政策基础。全文共分七章,各章相对独立。在结构安排上,除第一章导论部分和第七章政策建议部分外,其余五章按内容可以划分为两大部分：理论研究部分和经验研究部分。其中第二章为理论研究,第三章到第六章为经验研究部分。具体来说,论文的主要内容和结构安排为：第一章为绪论,首先对本文的研究背景和研究的理论和现实意义加以说明,并对国内外政府投资效应问题的既有研究进行了评述,阐述论文的研究基本思路和研究方法,继而说明论文的主要内容和结构安排,最后指出本文的主要创新点及进一步的研究方向。第二章介绍了地方政府投资效应的相关问题。首先进行相关概念的界定,包括地方政府、政府投资、投资效应的概念,并对政府投资与公共投资及政府支出、投资效应与投资效益、投资效率等概念进行了区分；然后介绍地方政府投资效应的基本理论,主要包括西方关于政府投资的理论。第三章主要探讨地方政府投资的经济增长效应。本章将地方政府投资的经济增长效应分为直接经济增长效应和间接经济增长效应,先对我国地方政府投资规模的发展变动进行了简单的描述,然后在对地方政府投资经济增长效应理论分析基础上,运用计量经济学方法进行了实证分析,具体包括：运用协整分析、脉冲响应函数、方差分解、Granger检验法对我国1978年以来地方政府投资的直接经济增长效应进行时间序列分析；运用面板数据模型检验地方政府投资的地区直接经济增长效应。再运用自回归分布滞后模型对地方政府投资的间接经济增长效应进行分析。最后在实证分析基础上提出相应对策建议。由于实证分析是建立在内生增长理论基础上的,因此资本存量的估算在本章中占据较大的篇幅。另外对于首次出现的实证方法本章也进行了具体介绍,以期为后文打下基础。从实证结果来看,地方政府投资与地区经济增长之间的确存在长期的均衡关系,地方政府投资的经济增长效应小于地方私人投资对经济增长的影响。误差修正模型表明,在短期内,政府投资以及私人投资对经济发展也具有显著的推动作用。就各省个体而言,各省地方政府投资的经济增长情况存在显著的差异。最高的为广东,最低的为新疆；从三大地区经济带看,西部地区地方政府投资的弹性系数略低于东部、中部地区的地方政府投资弹性系数。地方政府投资的间接经济增长效应表明,地方政府投资对地方私人投资从总体来看产生了正的外部性,即具有挤入效应,间接促进了经济增长。第四章主要阐述地方政府投资的结构改善效应,分为地方政府投资的产业结构改善效应和城乡结构改善效应。具体为：在对产业结构理论进行梳理的基础上运用协整分析方法对地方政府投资的产业结构改善效应进行讨论,结果表明,长期来看,地方政府投资和三次产业结构产值之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,地方政府投资对第二产业的促进作用最大,第三产业次之,第一产业最弱,且对第二产业的影响要远大于对第一、三产业的影响。在此基础上进行了脉冲响应和方差分解。关于地方政府投资的城乡结构改善效应问题,先对我国地方政府投资的城乡差别的现状及产生原因进行分析,再运用面板数据模型对地方政府投资的城乡结构改善效应进行分析。城乡结构改善效应实证结果表明,地方政府投资虽然对缓解城乡收入差距有所影响,但在统计分析中极不显著。地方政府投资在缩小不同地区和城乡收入差距方面的表现差强人意,具有一定的局限性,并没有缓解地区和城乡差距。因此,扩大地方政府投资在农业上的比重,未必是改善城乡结构的最佳途径。地方政府应通过政策引导等多方面手段,发挥其在改善城乡结构效应方面的效果。第五章主要对地方政府投资的民生福利效应进行了讨论,主要分为地方政府投资的就业效应、居民消费效应和生态环境效应。首先运用自回归分布滞后模型对地方政府投资的就业效应进行实证分析,从模型的误差修正项可以看出变量之间存在长期均衡关系,地方政府投资对就业有着正效应,并且会降低真实工资水平,但地方政府投资对就业的促进作用低于私人投资；同时,从VEC模型发现短期内地方政府投资产生负的就业效应,而地方政府投资变动会在短期内引起工资水平的上升；然后,在分析地方政府投资对居民消费作用机理及相关研究的基础上,运用SVAR模型对地方政府投资的居民消费效应进行分析,从SVAR模型可知,不论长期还是短期,地方政府投资对居民消费产生了较大影响。又从面板数据模型的结果可知,各地区地方政府投资对居民边际消费倾向影响存在较大差异,但均为正向影响,各地区居民的自发性消费倾向的差异也较大。两种计量方法的运用说明无论从动态效应角度,还是从不同截面角度,我国地方政府投资对居民消费均存在明显的挤入效应,即地方政府投资的增加,会带动居民消费的增加。最后从政府介入生态环境的必要性角度运用面板数据模型对地方政府投资的生态环境效应进行分析。结果表明随着人均GI的增加,人均二氧化硫、人均工业烟尘和人均工业粉尘三类污染物排放持续下降,即这三类污染物的排放得到了有效控制,地方政府投资对生态环境的改善起到了一定的促进作用。第六章是对地方政府投资效应的综合评价。基于前面各章效应分析结果作为指标采用灰色关联理论以辽宁省数据为例进行分析。在对灰色关联理论进行了介绍的基础.上,之后每种效应选择一个代表性指标,采用灰色关联理论进行分析。先从纵向上对各种效应进行了排序,则辽宁省地方政府投资效应最显著的是间接经济增长效应,直接经济增长效应位居第二,城乡结构改善效应和产业结构改善效应分别位于倒数第一、第二,居民消费效应、生态环境效应、就业效应分别处于中间位置。又从横向上对各地级市进行了排序,阜新市、抚顺市等资源枯竭型城市的地方政府投资效应高居榜首,营口、葫芦岛位于最后,其余分别位于中间。第七章是结论与政策建议。先对本文的主要结论进行总结,然后提出相应对策建议,主要从合理界定地方政府投资范围、保持地方政府投资的数量界限、调整和优化地方政府投资结构、改善地方政府投资对民生福利的协调、完善地方政府投资的运行体制方面提出相应的建议,为规范地方政府投资行为、强化投资效应提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The international financial crisis resulting from American mortgage foreclosures sent reverberations around the world in 2008. All government intervened into the economic at an unprecedented power under the guidance of the theory of Keynesianism and their regulatory policies. China implemented the government-led investment programmes of 4,000 billion to stimulate economic growth and local governments were required to provid corresponding supportive funds. Therefore, the investment enthusiasm of the local governments ran so high that it was greatly in excess of the central estimate. Acctually, it was the most important feature in the transitional period that local governments always played important roles in the local economic development and even in China. So, the effects of the local government action on the economic growth and development attracted the attentions of the academic circle and became an important angle to analyse the various economic problems. The investment action of local governments was a very important factor which influenced the operation of the Chinese macroeconomy. The performance of the investment action of local governments was prominent for the 30 years since it began opening up. On one hand, the pursuit of the maximal benefit and the rational choice brought a rapid economic development and employment improvement under the fixed constraint conditions. On the other hand, some local governments put one-sided emphasis on the growth of GDP and imposed restrictions on the effective combination between the limited resources and the labour force for the merit of ministry and its own good. The reasonable investment action of local governments can not only realize the all-round、continually and harmonious development of local economy, but also promote the realization of developing strategy of regional economy、effectively reinforce the overall national strength and improve the level of the growing material and cultural life of the people. On the contrary, the unreasonable investment action of local governments must bring about the waste and inefficiency of the allocation of limited investment resources and cause the blind expansion and disorderly competition to hinder the improvement of the economic development level within the area or in the whole country. As an essential tool in the market of local governments, the investment of local government played a significant role in promoting the local economid growth、optimising the allocation of resources、improving the living standard、guiding the other investment、expanding employment and preserving the ecological environment. Local governments showed different effect in their own investment actions. The investment practices was holding a caucus and more and more popular for improving the productive forces and meeting the material and cultural needs of the people in the area since the decentralization was implemented in China. Under this background, how to make just and objective evaluations for the investment effect of local governments has both theoretical and practical significance. In this situation, the paper mainly studies the effect of economic growth、the effect of structure improvement and the effect of people’s livelihood and welfare of the investment of local governments at the current stage in China, which is based on the related theories and the mathematical model and uses econometrics as method to put forward some pertinent suggestions. This dissertation looks forward to providing a theoretical basis in their formulation of policies for the improvement of the effect of the investment of local governments.This dissertation consists of the following seven chapters.Every chapter is relative unattached. In the configuration, except chapter one "The Introduction" and chapter seven "The Suggestion", the other five chapters can be divided into two parts:theoretical study and material study. Chapter two is of the theoretical study and it is of the material study from chapter three to chapter six. Specifically, the main research contents and the configuration in this paper are as follows:The first chapter gives an introduction of the paper. First of all, the background and the theoretical and practical significance are explained, a review of the existing research outcomes of the effect of the government investment at home and abroad is made, the basic ideas and methods of the paper are elaborated. Then the main contents and the configuration of this paper are expatiated. At last the innovations of this paper and the direction for further research are pointed out.The second chapter introduces the problem of the effect of the investment of local governments. At first, the related concepts are concretely defined,including "local government"、"government investment" and "the effect of investment". Then the difference and connection are discussed among the concepts of "government investment"、"public investment"、"government expenditure"、"the effect of investment"、"the benefit of investment" and "the efficiency of investment". Finally, the basic theories of the effect of the investment of local government are introduced, mainly including the theory of western government investment.The third chapter discusses about the effect of economic growth of local government investment. The effect of economic growth of local government investment is classified into direct effect and indirect effect. Firstly, the change of the scale of the investment of local governments in China is simply described. Secondly, based on the theoretical analysis of the effect of economic growth of local government investment, econometrics methods are used to make empirical analysis, including concretely:using cointegration analysis、impuls response function、variance decomposition、granger causality test to make a time series analysis for the direct effect of economic growth of local government investment since 1978;using the panel data model to test the direct effect of economic growth of local government investment; using ADL models to analyse the indirect effect of economic growth of local government investment. Finally, the suggestions are put forward on the base of the empirical analysis. Because the empirical analysis is base on the endogenous growth theory, the estimation of the capital stock takes up most of the space in the chapter. Besides, the empirical analysis method appeared firstly is introduced concretely for the further study. The empirical results suggest that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the local government investment and the local economic growth, and the effect of economic growth of local government investment is smaller than the one of local private investment. The ECM model shows that the government investment and private investment have a significantly positive effect in a short time. Various local governments are of remarkable differences for the economic growth of government investment. The highest one is in Guangdong and the lowest one is in Xinjiang. It can be seen from the economic belt of three areas that the elasticity coefficient of government investment in west area is lower than the one in east and middle area. The indirect effect of economic growth of local government investment indicates that the local government investment has the positive exteriority on the local private investment in general, that is crowding-in effects, and promotes the economic growth.The fourth chapter mainly elaborates the effect of structure improvement of local government investment, divided into the effect of the industry structure improvement and the effect of the urban-rural structure improvement. The effect of the industry structure improvement is discussed by using cointegration analysis method on the base of the theory of industry structure. The results shows that there is a steady equilibrium relationship beteen the local government investment and the triple industrial value in the long run. The local government investment has the greatest promotion effect on secondary industry, tertiary industry takes the second place, and primary industry has the smallest effect. The promotion effect on secondary industry is is far greater than the effect on primary industry and tertiary industry. On this condition, impulse responses function and variance decomposition methods is used and then the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. For the effect of the urban-rural structure improvement of local government investment, the current states and the causes of the difference between town and country are analysed, then the effect of the urban-rural structure improvement of local government investment is analysed by using the panel data model and the suggestions are put forward on the basis of the empirical analysis. The empirical results suggest that the local government investment is helpful to shorten the urban and rural disparities to a certain extent, but it is not significant at all in the statistics analysis. The performance of the local government investment in shortening the urban and rural disparities is just passable. The local government investment is of a few limitations and fails to deal with the problem of the urban and rural disparities. Therefore,the increase of the proportion of the agricultural investment may not be a wonderful way for the urban-rural structure improvement. The local government should produce the effect on the urban-rural structure improvement through political guidance.The fifth chapter mainly discusses the effect of the local government investment on people’s livelihood and welfare, including the effect of employment、the effect of consumption and the effect of ecological environment. Firstly, ADL model is used to make an empirical analysis on the effect of the local government investment on people’s livelihood and welfare. It can be seen from the error revised term of the model that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among the variables. The local government investment has the positive effect on the employment and would erode the real value of wages, but the promotion effect of local government investment on the employment is lower than the effect of private investment. Meanwhile it can be seen from VEC model that the local government investment has the negative effect on the employment and the change of the local government investment would cause a general advance on the wage level in a short time. Secondly, the SVAR model is used to analyse the effect of the local government investment on the consumption on the basis of the related research of the mechanism. It can be known from SVAR model that the local government investment has greater effect on the consumption regardless of a short or long period. It also can be known from the reslut of the panel data model that there is obvious difference on the effect of the local government investment on the MPC, but all the effect is positive and the difference of the spontaneous consumer tendency in various area is obvious. The results of two econometrics method indicates that the local government investment has obvious crowding-in effects on the consumption, that is to say the increase of the local government investment will expand the consumption demand regardless of the dynamic effects and the different angles. Finally the panel data model is used to analyse the effect of the local government investment on the ecological environment from the angle of the necessity of the government intervention in the ecological environment. The results indicate that there has been a steady decrease in the pollutant discharge of average per sulfur dioxide、the industrial smoke dust and the industrial dust with the increase of per capita GI, that is to say the three kinds of pollutant discharge are effectively controlled and the local government investment has some effect on the ecological environment improvement.The sixth chapter gives the comprehensive assessment on the effect of the local government investment. The grey relation theory is used to make an analysis, using the analytical results of the various effect as index and Liaoning province as example. The grey relation theory is introduced and then every effect chooses a typical index. The various effects sort an vertical array. The result shows that the indirect effet of economic growth is most obvious, the direct effet of economic growth takes the second places, the effect of the urban-rural structure improvement goes to the bottom, the effect of the industry structure improvement is the next to the last, the consumption effect、the ecological environment effect and the employment effect are in a middle position. Meanwhile the various effects also sort an horizontal array. The result shows that the effect of the local government investment in the resource-exhausted city such as Fuxin、Fushun city is most obvious, the effect of Yingkou、Huludao is at the bottom, the others are in a middle position.The seventh chapter puts forward the conclusions and policy suggestions.In this part, major achievable outcomes of the paper are summarized at first, and then corresponding suggestions are put forward. The suggestions include defining the scale of the local government investment reasonably、maintaining the quantitative limits of the local government investment、readjusting and optimizing the investment structure of the local governments、coordinating the local governments for the improvement in living standard and social welfare、perfecting the legalization of investment decisions of the local governments. These recommendations can provide reference for standardizing the action of the local government investment and strenthening the investment effect.更多还原