【作者】 邱桔；

【导师】 李际平；

【作者基本信息】 中南林业科技大学 ， 森林经理学， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 生态风险评价是伴随着环境管理目,标和环境观念的转变而逐渐兴起并得到发展的一个新的研究领域,它利用环境学、生态学、地理学、生物学等多学科的综合知识,采用数学、概率论等风险分析技术手段来预测、分析和评价具有不确定性的灾害或事件对生态系统及其组分可能造成的损失。目前在国外对生态风险评价体系尤其是自然水域的生态风险评价体系研究相对较多,已基本形成一个相对统一、较为系统和规范的生态风险评价体系,国内有关生态风险评价的研究工作在20世纪90年代起步,大批的专家学者已经进行了大量的研究工作,并取得了相当多的成果。城市生态系统是一个以人类生产与生活活动为中心,由居民与城市环境组成的自然、社会、经济复合生态系统。城市生态风险是指在城市建设和发展过程中,由于受到人为活动或自然巨变的影响,致使城市的自然环境,社会和经济各子系统可能产生不利反映的潜势。本文在参考国内外已有的一些关于生态市建设和城市可持续发展监测指标的基础上,根据“环境—经济—社会”框架,构建了城市生态风险评价的四级指标体系。该指标体系包括环境生态化水平,经济生态化水平和社会生态化水平3个一级指标,7个二级指标,21个三级指标和62个四级指标。采用专家调查法、层次分析法对各级各个指标进行了权重的赋值和计算。定义了各种正、反向生态因子的质量指数和水平指数。通过对珠海市城市生态环境分析,包括大气环境,水环境,森林环境,噪声环境和海洋环境定性的分析和定量计算,得出珠海市目前的环境质量指数为88.43,其中大气环境质量指数为91.88,水环境质量指数为81.55,森林环境质量指数为85,噪声环境质量指数为100,海洋环境质量指数为86.2。同样通过对珠海市环境检测水平,森林保护和污染治理水平等方面的评测,得出珠海市的环境管理水平指数为89；通过对珠海市的市政基础设施建设,林业建设和环保法制建设等方面的评测,得出珠海市的环境建设水平指数为86.92。由珠海市的环境质量指数,环境管理水平指数和环境建设水平指数,综合得出珠海市环境生态化水平指数为88.27；在通过对珠海市的经济增长模式包括经济发展水平和能源消耗以及产业生态化水平的评测,得出珠海市经济生态化水平指数为74.77；其中经济增长模式得分86.33,产业生态化得分71.64.再通过对城市人口规模和居民生活质量,城市的交通模式,居民的住区模式和环保意识等方面综合评定珠海市社会化生态水平指数为73.81根据珠海市现在的环境生态化水平,经济生态化水平和社会生态化水平,得出目前珠海市的生态风险值为0.2122,属于较低分险范畴,但是风险压力依然存在。根据生态风险的管理策略,预测了今后15年珠海市的生态风险值分别为：2010年0.1256、2015年0.0673、2020年0.0412。采用三层B/S模式对城市生态风险评价系统进行了软件实现,该软件可以实现用户管理、数据管理、风险评价、数据浏览、专家在线点评和相关新闻发布等主要功能,为城市生态风险评价系统的推广应用奠定了良好的基础。本文的主要创新点有：1.构建了城市生态风险评价指标体系。该指标体系由3个一级指标,7个二级指标,21个三级指标和62个四级指标所组成的；对各级各个指标进行了权重的赋值研究和计算。2.定义了各种生态因子的质量指数和水平指数,并建立各种指数与其影响因子之间的函数关系。3.首次对珠海市生态环境系统进行了系统的、全面的评价。采用遥感调查分析方法对珠海市的植被环境和绿地物种进行了专题信息提取和分析,按照构建的指标体系,根据珠海市现在的环境生态化水平,经济生态化水平和社会生态化水平,得出目前珠海市的生态风险值为0.2122,属于较低分险范畴。但是潜在的生态压力依然存在。4.率先开发了城市生态风险评价软件系统。通过软件系统实现了城市生态风险的实时评价,为系统的推广应用奠定了基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 The ecological risk assessment is a new research field, which has been rising and developing with the change of environment management objectives and environment conception. It makes use of comprehensive knowledge in disciplines involving environmental science, ecology, geography, biology etc., and adopts mathematical and statistical techniques to forecast, analyze and assess the probable losses of ecosystem or its components caused by uncertain disasters or events. Currently, studies on ecological risk assessment especially on that for natural water area are relatively rich abroad and are in the process towards a mature system. Domestic research, started in 1990’s, has obtained considerable achievement through numerous researchers’efforts.The urban ecosystem is a compound system of natural, social and economical elements. It makes human producing and living activities as its core and consists of residents and urban environment. Urban ecological risk refers to the potential likelihood, in process of city construction and development, of any negative impact on natural, social and economical urban subsystems. The impacts were caused by human activities and violent natural changes.Under the direction of the relevant indicators concerning ecological city constructing and urban sustainable development monitoring, and according to the "environment-economy-society" framework, the study establishes a four-hierarchy indicator system for urban ecological risk assessment. The indicator system contains 3 first-layer indicators (environmental ecologicalized level, economical ecologicalized level and social ecologicalized level) and further 7 second-layer,21 third-layer and 62 forth-layer indicators.Then approaches of Delphi and AHP are employed to identify the weight of each indicator in each hierarchy. The quality indexes and the level indexes for both positive and negative ecological factors are defined as well.The indicator system is applied in the case of Zhuhai city. Viewed from perspectives as atmosphere, water body, forest, noise and ocean, the ecological environment of Zhuhai city is analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively. The results indicate that the current environment quality index (EQI) of the city is88.43, more specifically, the quality indexes for atmosphere, water body, forest, noise and ocean are91.88,81.55,85.00,100.00 and 86.2 respectively. Moreover, based on assessment on the state of the city’s environment examination, forest preservation and pollution management etc., the environment management level index (EMLI) for the city is identified as 89.00; assessment on the city’s infrastructure construction, forestry construction and legal system for environmental protection is conducted as well, presenting a value of 86.92 for the environment construction level index (ECLI). A value of 88.27, as the environment ecologicalized level of the city, can be drawn from synthesizing the EQI, EMLI and ECLI. When it comes to economy-related evaluation, the study suggests that the economic growth mode (in terms of economy development level and energy depletion) value is 86.33 and the industry ecologicalized level is 71.64, resulting in an ultimate economical ecologicalized level of 74.77 for Zhuhai city. In the same way, the study concludes the social ecologicalized level of the city is 73.81, through synthesized assessing the scale of city population, the living standard of residents, the transportation mode of the city and the residents’ residence mode and their consciousness for environment protection.According to the obtained indexes of environmental ecologicalized level, economical ecologicalized level and social ecologicalized level, the current ecological risk index for Zhuhai city is identified as 0.2122, which falls in a low-risk range. However, it means a risk in exist. To aim at that, the study puts forward a series of risk managing strategies and, accordingly, forecasts the city’s ecological risk in the following 15 years:0.1256 in 2010, 0.0673 in 2015 and 0.0412 in 2020.The study adopts three-layer B/S model thus develops software for ecological risk assessment. The software can realize a range of main functions such as user management, data management, risk assessment, data browse, on-line expert comment and news release, laying a solid foundation for the extensive application of the urban ecological risk assessment system.The major innovation points of the paper are as follows:1. A four-hierarchy indicator system, containing 3 first-layer,7 second-layer,21 third-layer and 62 forth-layer indicators, is established for urban ecological risk assessment. The weight of each indicator in each hierarchy is calculated as well.2. A set of quality indexes and level indexes for ecological factors are defined, and the functional relationships between the indexes and their influence factors are built up.3. The study serves as the first systematic and overall assessment on the ecological risk of Zhuhai city. It utilizes remote sensing (RS) techniques to collect and analyze the information about the city’s vegetation types and greenland species. Consequently, according to the established indicator system and based on the calculated indexes for environmental ecologicalized level, economical ecologicalized level and social ecologicalized level, the study concludes that the ecological risk of Zhuhai city is 0.1883, which belongs to a low risk range while still suggests existing ecological pressure.4. The researchers innovatively develop software for urban ecological risk assessment, contributing to the further application of the established risk assessment system.更多还原