【作者】 郑黎义；

【导师】 钱文荣；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 近三十年来,我国农村劳动力持续大规模向城市转移,引起了各界对粮食安全与农业发展的广泛担忧。劳动力外出务工到底给农户的农业生产带来了什么样的影响?哪些方面的影响较严重,哪些方面的影响较轻微?这些影响的内在机制是什么,可以如何消除?学界众说纷纭,并无统一的答案。本研究基于2009年在江西省四个县的实地调研数据,以农户为分析单元,在微观层次上考察了劳动力外出务工对农户农业生产多个方面的影响。在前人研究的基础上,区分了各种务工模式影响的差异,并将劳动力回流也纳入分析的范围；从集体农业基础设施投资、村庄经济发展水平、家庭生命周期等视角揭示了务工所带来的要素禀赋变化对农户农业生产产生影响的传导机制；着重分析了务工所引起的农业生产结构调整这一前人研究较少关注的问题。实证结果表明,务工户持一种“务工与本地非农劳动相互替代”的收入策略。总体上他们的农业收入受家庭成员流出的影响并不大,但其中劳动力流失的消极作用与汇款流入的间接补偿作用体现得非常明显。务工户倾向于转出少量农地,但其农地供给的有效性依赖于当地农业基础设施的好坏。在相对富裕的村庄,家庭成员外出务工会导致农户减少农业资产投资；而在相对贫穷的村庄,农户的农业生产性投资受务工的影响不显著。不论是产出还是投入抑或是农业商品化率角度的分析都显示,务工户的农业生产结构发生了改变。他们更重视劳动力相对不密集的水稻生产并更少参与其它农业生产活动,劳动力外出务工给农户的资金支持并未促使他们生产更多资金相对密集的农产品。从水稻生产上看,务工汇款的流入可帮助农户投入更多的资金要素,促进农业产出水平提高；而劳动力流失对产出的负面作用则主要通过集体农业基础设施投资水平来体现；年轻的农户会因为务工汇款的保障作用而轻视农业生产,但处于生命周期晚期的农户则仍会用心地经营农业生产。本地务工和外地务工对农户农业生产各方面的影响存在很大差异。这主要是因为本地务工对家庭劳动力的约束作用更小,并且比外地务工更加稳定、能为农户提供更好的非农收入保障。此外,研究还发现,回流劳动力倾向于放弃传统的农业生产,从事专业的家禽畜养殖及一些非农小事业,并转出农地。研究结果表明：首先,目前我国的农村劳动力转移已经到了“刘易斯拐点”Ⅲ为了将劳动力进一步从农业中解放出来,政府必须加紧制定措施促进农业生产技术革新,加快农业生产方式转变。其次,为了减小劳动力外出务工对农户农业生产的消极影响,政府必须坚持实施粮食直补政策,使农民产粮有利可图；加强农资购买环节的补贴,以鼓励农户更多使用资金要素,提高生产力；调整过去由村集体投资为主的政策,提高上级财政支农资金中基础设施建设投入的比重,快速改变农村地区集体农田水利等基础设施供给严重不足的现状。再次,应加快产业结构向内地欠发达地区调整转移的步伐,推进小城镇化建设,促进县域经济繁荣发展,为农村劳动力提供更多的当地非农就业机会,加快务工农户真正脱离农业的步伐。第四,要大力培育有知识、懂技术的新一代农民,促进农业技术进步,防止农业后继无人。最后,需加大对回流劳动力创业的信贷支持和政策扶持,帮助他们发展资金相对密集的家禽畜饲养产业与非农小事业。同时,大力发展县域经济,为回流劳动力实现非农再就业创造有利条件。更多还原

【Abstract】 Grain security and agricultural development have caused public concern as massive labor was flowing away from farm in the past three decades, whereas they are crucial for national stabilization. Was the out-migration of labor hindering or fostering agricultural production in rural communities that migrants leave and how was agriculture impacted? What is subordinate to agriculture sustainability? And what is by now more serious, needed to be solved immediately? Still, little is understood.This dissertation was developed to answer these questions with household level evidences. Based on a field survey carried out in summer 2009 at four counties in Jiangxi province, the influence of labor migration on each aspects of agricultural production was analyzed systematically. Proceeding from previous researches, some progressive work was done. Firstly, we distinguished different forms of migration including return migration, considering their heterogenic impact on agricultural production. Secondly, we explored the underlying functional mechanism of labor lost and remittance on several important perspectives such as village level infrastructural investment, local economic development status and household life cycle. Thirdly, we made special efforts in understanding the structural adjustments of agriculture caused by migration, which receives little concern in past researches.Empirical results suggest that migrant households substitute migration for local non-farm work as their income strategy. Agricultural income does not fall when household members leave home because remittance can compensate for the labor lost by stimulating crop production.Evidences from all perspectives consistently suggest that migrant households are moving from cash crops and livestock production into cereal production. That is, labor constraint has played an evident role in the structural adjustment in agriculture among migrant families; however, increased access to credit is not associated with expansion of capital intensive production. All these reasons contribute also to a stronger tendency to lease out farmland among migrant households. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of their land supply depends on sufficient investment on agriculture infrastructure at village level. Farmers, especially those at richer villages, will cut down investment on agriculture as family members flow out to the city.Take rice production as an example, we find that more fertilizer and pesticide inputs significantly promote the productivity of migrant households who receive remittances, while the passive effect of labor lost on agricultural productivity dominants only when infrastructures are poor. Young farmers will marginalize agricultural production in contrast to old farmers because they can expect more credit support from migrants.Among all above mentioned impacts exerting on agricultural production, clear differences exist between long distance and short distance migration because the former exerts a stronger downward pressure on agricultural labor supply while providing less nonfarm income insurance. Further more, the evidences also show that return migrants are more likely to lease out farmland and leave traditional agriculture, in order to allocate more resources to livestock production or small nonfarm enterprises.Some policy implications can be drawn from our findings. Firstly, the Lewis Turning Point has come for Chinese rural labor transfer under the traditional agricultural circumstance. Much should be done by the government in order to release more labors from agriculture. To achieve this goal, the government ought to speed up in taking measures to improve the production technology and transform the traditional production mode. Secondly, to reduce the negative effect of labor emigration on agricultural production, the government should stick to the direct-subsidy policy which makes the crop production profitable and should encourage farmers to use more capital factors by enforcing the subsidy when they buy agricultural inputs. Also they have to switch from village-level investment to upper-governmental fiscal support in building up the agricultural infrastructures to enhance more sufficient supply in rural district. Thirdly, the government should fasten the pace in transferring the industry to less-developed inner district, improving small town establishment and county economy, so that more non-farm employment opportunities can be generated and thus migrant households can really leap out of agricultural field. Fourthly, new generation of farmers should be equipped with knowledge and skills, thus facilitating the technological progress in agriculture and making agriculture sustainable. Lastly, with reference to entrepreneurship of return migrants, sufficient supports in credit and policy should be provided, aiding them to pursue capital intensive agriculture activities and non-farm businesses. Besides, the government should strive to develop county economy, in order to nurture favorable condition for these entrepreneurships.更多还原