固体废物综合管理系统演化与调控模型研究

【作者】 毕贵红；

【导师】 王华；

【作者基本信息】 昆明理工大学 ， 生产过程物流学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 固体废物综合管理系统是一种新型的固体废物管理发展模式,是固体废物管理系统提高资源利用效率,解决环境污染问题,实现可持续发展的必由之路。在固体废物管理的实践中人们逐渐认识到固体废物管理系统是一个内部各子系统相互作用相互联系的复杂系统,必须以整体观来看待固体废物管理系统。传统的固体废物管理系统决策模型是基于“还原论”和静态的模型,对系统的认识具有局限性。固体废物管理系统是一个复杂的、开放的技术经济系统,具有复杂系统和复杂适应系统的一切特征。对固体废物管理系统这样的复杂系统,人们需要一个能对其进行预测、模拟、优化和调控分析的辅助决策工具,帮助人们作出科学决策。这样的决策系统应该是整体的和全面的方法,符合复杂系统内部运行机制,能描述复杂系统运行规律的方法,而不是片面的和还原论的方法。本文分别从宏观层次和微观层次出发,将复杂反馈系统、复杂适应系统理论及其建模方法引入到固体废物管理系统动态演化模型的研究中,完善废物管理系统优化调控的基础分析理论和基于系统演化机理的建模方法。追踪固体废物管理系统模型的最新进展,以复杂系统模型为基础综合现有的各种有效分析方法和模型,为最终建立一个完整全面的固体废物管理决策支持系统打下基础。基于以上分析,本文从以下几个方面进行了研究：以复杂系统理论为指导对固体废物综合管理系统的复杂系统特性进行了定性分析,奠定了固体废物综合管理系统的复杂系统理论基础。从复杂反馈系统的观点出发,把城市居民固体废物源头调控政策、居民的废物分类行为与固体废物处置管理系统看成动态演化的反馈系统。在固体废弃物从量收费政策和法规政策影响下,采用系统动力学模型分析居民参与废物管理的行为对整个废物管理系统的动态影响。用开发的昆明城市固体废物系统动力学模型对3种设定的政策情景进行了仿真。应用复杂适应系统理论对区域固体废物综合管理系统的特性进行了分析,证明固体废物管理系统是一类复杂适应系统。论文以复杂适应系统理论为指导,通过基于主体(Agent)的模型仿真来探究固体废物管理系统的演化的过程和发展规律,并以此指固体废物综合管理系统的实践。固体废物管理系统的演化发展实际上是大量主体自主决策、交互作用的结果,固体废物综合管理系统本质上是复杂适应系统。由此论文提出了自下而上,从微观到宏观的固体废物管理系统演化的研究思路。并且开发了适合固体废物管理系统的基于Agent的仿真模型,并以此作为论文的研究方法。在这个模型中,针对废物处理企业Agent的设计难点,给出了一种结合系统动力学模型的企业Agent设计的新思路。为有效解决区域固体废物的可持续管理问题提供新的研究方向和思维方式,奠定了区域固体废物管理的科学理论基础。研究了基于Agent的CAS建模机理和仿真方法；探讨了基于Repast平台的复杂适应系统建模机理和仿真方法；进一步研究了基于Agent的复杂适应系统建模仿真方法的关键技术。为了深入了解城市固体废物管理系统中各参与主体之间复杂的交互关系及其上体现出来的系统行为,特别是居民行为与公共政策之间的动态演化关系,需要先进的建模和仿真方法来对固体废物管理系统随时间演化的系统行为以及居民响应不同价格机制的过程进行建模。这种方法对评价不同情景下政策的制定是非常有用的,不仅能帮助人们识别有效的政策调控点,而且能帮助设计和讨论成功的政策。一种新的有前景的建模方法就是从复杂适应性系统理论出发,把固体废弃物管理系统作为一个虚拟人工社会,用基于Agent的建模方法进行模拟。开发了一个基于Agent的固体废弃物管理人工社会,对模型中涉及的所有Agent及其交互进行了详细的设计和描述。研究了该模型是如何作为一个虚拟的政策实验室,在控制的条件下为了考虑“如果,那么”问题,对不同的价格和激励调控政策进行了测试。研究表明模型是有效和成功的。最后指出了需要进一步研究的内容。更多还原

【Abstract】 Integrated solid waste management system is a novel solid waste management development mode, which is designed to improve resource utilization and prevent environmental pollution and aimed at the sustainable development of society. By way of solid waste management practice people gradually knows that solid waste management is a complex system which subsystem is interaction and independent, holism view is needed to study complex solid waste management. The study method of traditional solid waste management decision making system is "Reductionism" and static model; these methods have limitations to understand complex system. Solid waste management is a complex and open technology economics system, solid waste management has all features of complex and complex adaptive system. A decision making system that has the ability to forecasting, simulating, optimization and intervention analysis is needed to help people making scientific decision for complex solid waste management. The perspectives of such decision making system should be holistic and comprehensive, the decision making system is keeping with complex internal working mechanism, description complex working law, and not a single-faceted and reductionism method. In this paper, from macro view and micro view, complex feedback system and complex adaptive system has been introduced to study the model of solid waste management system dynamic evolving simulating model, which will improve solid waste management optimization and intervention study, and improve the modeling method based on system evolving. By following up-to-date study about solid waste management decision making model, integrating current methods and models with complex model, it will be a base to set up a. holistic and comprehensive solid waste management decision making system. According to above discussion, the paper carried out some research as follows.The complexity of interacted solid waste management has been analyzed using complex theory, establishing a complex theory for integrated solid waste management. Municipal solid waste management involving source intervention policies, domestic separate collection and solid waste deposal system has been taken as an evolutionary feedback system. Based on this, a system dynamics model has been developed to analyze the dynamic impact on the whole solid waste management under solid waste specific duty and regulation for illegal disposal. Three supposed combination polices experiments suggest that promoting domestic separate collection by specific duty integrated with regulation for controlling waste illegal disposals is as important as to increase solid waste disposal ability for sustainable solid waste management.Through the complexity science, solid waste management system can be viewed as a kind of CAS, the exertion of CAS theory describing mechanism evolvement of solid waste management system. The theory of CAS and the method of Agent-based modeling are introduced into the research to explore the evolving process of solid waste management systems. Solid waste management system is a CAS, because the evolution and development of the system is the result of self-decision making, interaction of a large amount of agents. This thesis puts forward a simulation framework of agent-based modeling which can be properly applied to solid waste management system. This is bottom-up simulation process, and will be the research method of the study. In this model, a novel method integrating Agent-Based and System Dynamics modeling was used to develop the solid waste treatment enterprise Agent which is very difficult to be realized by Agent-based method self. This will be very helpful for studying solid waste management sustainability and a scientific theory for studying it’s complexity. Agent based simulating method and mechanism has been investigated. The architecture of Repast and discrete event schedule mechanism of Repast was analyzed. Go step further, key techniques of Agent based modeling applications have been studied.To understand the effect of household separation behavior for unban solid waste management efficiency is very important for sustainable development. It will be helpful for foreseeing and intervening household separation activities, and designing, regulating and optimizing household separation behavior by policy design. This paper developed an Agent-based solid waste management simulation artificial society model, described Agents modeling and their interactions in detail. This is particularly useful for enabling the evaluation of different scenarios for policy making, can help both to identify effective interventions points and to design or discuss successful policies. A new and promising approach is to model solid waste management as an artificial society based on complex adaptive system view using Agent-based modeling and simulation approach. Advanced modeling approaches are needed that simulate the behavior of solid waste management over time and model how household may act and react to changes in the underling different pricing system. This paper illustrates how the model was used as a policy lab in which various pricing and incentive strategies were tested that allowed addressing "what, if-question" under controlled conditionsAt last, the paper pointed out the problems needed to be studied in the future.更多还原