【作者】 魏来；

【导师】 陈宏；

【作者基本信息】 电子科技大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 2003年的“非典”、2008年上半年的“512汶川大地震”和2008年下半年从美国开始席卷全球的“金融危机”,都不同程度地冲击了消费品长期的价格均衡体系,并且对于相关产业链产生强烈的波及效应。消费类产品产业链(以下简称消费类产业链)价格波及效应实际上包含两个内容：一是价格波动传递过程,即链上节点之间价格变量在该链上波动的传递过程,由于固定调整成本的存在,使得最初价格震荡的调整在大小和症候上可能是有区别的,而且是非线性的；二是效应,即由价格传递过程给该链以及相关的产业链造成的影响。本论文针对上述问题,以日常生活影响最大的两类消费类产品——消费类电子产品和消费类农产品为主要的研究对象,在深入分析价格不对称传递现象和成因的基础上,对消费类产业链的价格波及效应及其应对管理等问题作了创新性和探索性研究。主要内容为：1.详细研究了消费类农产品产业链内价格波及效应的定量模型。以上海猪产业链为例,构建了垂直方向的单变量三节点价格传递模型,从正方向和逆方向传递两种角度,以基于相容门限的模型分析长期的均衡状况,以纠错模型探讨短期的特征,从经济和管理方面探讨了门限的经济含义和价格在产业链内产生波及效应的原因。2.详细研究了消费类电子产品产业链内价格波及效应的定量模型。研究包括垂直方向和水平方向两个方面：垂直方面的研究主要是探讨基本模型在消费类电子产品产业链的适用性,进一步拓展研究的领域；水平方面的研究主要是分析不同消费类电子产品供应链之间价格波及效应,分别以液晶电视机供应链为例探讨成品层面的价格传递特点,以及以液晶面板为例,获得了上游重要零部件层面存在价格不对称传递的证据。3.研究了常见的价格波及效应的成因。市场力、调整与面板成本、行政干预、不对称信息和库存管理等是价格波及效应的重要因素。水平的价格波及效应的成因还包括生产与经营中的套利、物流成本和市场壁垒等因素。主要成因指向市场环境以及非常规条件的影响。4.详细研究了正负两方面的冲击引起的消费类产业链价格波及效应。使用向量纠错模型(VECM)和历史分解图(HDG)分析价格调整的动态效果和沿产业链的因果关系。一方面,通过“5.12汶川大地震”对于四川灾区猪产业链影响的实证分析,探讨了负冲击产生的消费品产业链内的价格波及效应；另一方面,以“家电下乡”政策性对于消费类电子产品产业链产生冲击为例实证分析,探讨了正冲击产生的消费品产业链内的价格波及效应。5.详细研究了信息条件下,消费类产业链内价格波及效应应对管理的目标、策略和方法。首先,企业可以有效地使用现代信息技术,根据消费品的特点,在一定条件下,使本企业处于产业链的有利位置。其次,为改变以买方为中心的市场对于生产商的不公平环境,在软件和硬件的实现方面,研究了以卖方为中心的B2B电子商务平台的供应链协调,构建了以服务为导向的电子商务平台框架。第三,危机条件下,消费品产业链价格扭曲产生的波及效应,很大程度上是由于库存在短期内难以得到补充,因此采用风险分析提出应急管理的方法。自由的市场经济使得价格的波及效应不可能自我约束,政府有效的行政干预是解决问题的重要保障。更多还原

【Abstract】 All the important events—from the SARS in 2003 to the Wenchuan Earthquake in the first half of 2008 to the financial crisis beginning from the United States in the second half of 2008—influenced on the long-term price equalization system of consumer goods to some extent and made a strong ripple effect on the related industrial chains.The price ripple effect of consumer goods chain actually consists of two elements. One is the transmission process of price ripple effect. Prices vary between nodes in the chain. Due to the fixed cost adjustment, price shocks in size and symptoms at the beginning may be different and is non-linear. The other is the effect of price transmission process on the chain as well as other related industrial chains.The dissertation first took consumer electronics and consumer agricultural products as the main subjects of study, analyzed the phenomenon of asymmetric price transmission and its causes in depth, and then made an innovative and exploratory research on the price ripple effect in the consumer goods industry chain and its response management. The main contents are:1. A detailed study on the quantitative models of the price ripple effects in the consumer agricultural industry chain. The dissertation took pig industry chain in Shanghai for example to build a vertical single-variable three-node, analyzed long-term equilibrium situation based on the consistent threshold model and explored the short-term characteristics based on the error correction model from the positive and negative transfer directions, the dissertation discussed the economic implications of the threshold from the view of economy and management and the causes why prices give birth to ripple effect in the industry chain.2. A detailed study on the quantitative models of the price ripple effects in the consumer electronics industry chain. It was both vertical and horizontal. The vertical study is to explore the applicability of the basic model in the consumer electronics industry chain and further expand the field of study. Horizontal research mainly focused on the price ripple effect among the supply chains of different consumer electronic products. It discussed the characteristics of price transfer of finished products with illustration of LCD TV supply chain and acquired evidence of price asymmetric transfer in important components.3. Study on the common causes of price ripple effect. Market power, adjustment and panel costs, administrative intervention, asymmetric information and inventory management are important factors in the price ripple effect. The causes of horizontal ripple effects also include the arbitrage of management, logistics costs and market barriers and so on. The primary causes point to environment of market and influence of the unconventionallity condition.4. A detailed study of the positive and negative impact on the price ripple effect in the consumer goods industry train. The vector error correction model (VECM) and the historical decomposition map (HDG) are used to analyze the dynamic effects of price adjustment as well as the cause-effect relationship along the industrial chain. Firstly, the price ripple effect in the consumer goods industry chain caused by negative impact was discussed through the analysis of the negative impact of the Wenchuan Earthquake on pork industry chain in the disaster area of Sichuan. And then the price ripple effect in the consumer electronic goods industry chain was discussed through the analysis of the positive impact of the "home appliances to the countryside" policy on the consumer electronic goods industry chain.5. A detailed study on the objectives, strategies and methods of response management about price ripple effect in the consumer goods industrial chain under information condition. Firstly, they can effectively use modern information technology under certain conditions according to the characteristics of consumer goods so that they can make their own in a favorable position in the chain. Secondly, in order to change the unfair environment of buyer-centric market to producers, studied the supply chain coordination of the seller-centric B2B e-commerce platform and designed framework of a service-oriented. Thirdly, the ripple effect in the consumer goods industry chain caused by price distortions mainly lied in insufficient inventory in the short term. Therefore, emergency management approach was presented by risk analysis. The unrestricted market economy can’t restrict itselves; the important guarantee is effective administrative interference of the government.更多还原