【作者】 魏下海；

【导师】 李建民； 朱镜德； 陈卫民；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 劳动经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,中国经济高速发展,创造了人类经济增长历史上的“奇迹”,令世界瞩目,吸引了众多学者的广泛关注和研究兴趣。作为探寻经济增长源泉和评价经济增长质量的主要工具,全要素生产率很自然地成为被深入讨论的焦点,由此形成了许多具有代表性的研究成果。无疑,这些研究文献对于本论文的进一步研究具有重要的启示和参考价值。然而,本论文并不仅仅停留在有关中国全要素生产率增长核算这一问题上,而是对全要素生产率增长的决定性因素——人力资本的影响效应投以更多的关注。从理论上讲,人力资本作为知识和技术进步的载体,是决定全要素生产率增长最重要因素,它影响全要素生产率增长主要通过两条途径：一是人力资本通过决定一国国内的技术创新,即创造适宜于本国生产的新技术而直接影响生产率增长；二是人力资本会影响一国技术追赶和扩散的速度,从而影响生产率增长(Benhabib and Spiegel,1994)。那么在真实的经济世界里,人力资本与全要素生产率增长之间的关系又是如何呢?人力资本的生产率增长效应究竟还有哪些重要的表现特征呢?对于诸如此类问题的解答,有助于我们更为深刻地理解人力资本对全要素生产率增长的影响效应。本论文共分七章：第一章对所要研究的问题进行说明；第二章对相关理论和文献资料进行回顾与综述；第三章是实证分析之一,对中国省际全要素生产率增长进行测算与分解；第四、五、六章为实证分析之二,分别从不同角度考察人力资本对全要素生产率增长的影响效应；第七章为本论文的基本结论和政策启示,并对下一步研究方向进行说明。本论文的实证发现主要有以下几点：第一,全要素生产率增长的分解表明,技术进步支撑了我国全要素生产率增长,而效率增进的贡献不足。从区域上看,各地区的全要素生产率增长在时间模式上的变动趋势基本一致,但始终保持着相当的差距,大体表现为东部>中部>西部梯次下降的特征。第二,基于Benhabib-Spiegel模型,分别考察人力资本平均水平、人力资本异质性对我国各省份全要素生产率增长的影响。作为模型拓展之一,实证检验人力资本不平等与全要素生产率增长之间的关系。结果表明,人力资本对全国整体的全要素生产率增长以及技术进步具有积极影响；不同教育水平人力资本的增长效应存在差异,其中,高等教育的增长效应最大,中等教育次之,小学教育的作用最小且不显著；东、中、西部地区人力资本对全要素生产率增长的作用具有鲜明的区域差异性。此外,基于中国的数据验证了人力资本不平等与全要素生产率增长之间存在长期稳定的关系,而且这种关系是显著负相关。第三,在区域经济一体化日益加深的今天,不同地区间的相互影响相互依赖是普遍存在的,基于Spatial Benhabib-Spiegel模型,本论文实证检验了人力资本的空间溢出效应。结果表明,作为整体的人力资本对全要素生产率增长和技术进步具有显著的正向空间溢出,而对效率增进则是负向溢出；分不同教育水平考察,中等教育人力资本对全要素生产率增长和技术进步都具有显著的正向空间溢出,而高等教育则表现出负向空间溢出。第四,某一地区人力资本效应的发挥离不开该地区特定的经济环境,诸如一地区的经济发展水平、对外开放程度、物质资本积累、基础设施建设以及城市化水平等变量都会在一定程度上影响人力资本的增长效应,而且这种影响表现出一定的门限特征。从结果看,当变量跨越对应的高门槛水平时,人力资本的影响系数较大。那些跨越高门槛水平的省份大多来自东部发达地区,尚未跨越门槛水平的省份则主要来自中部尤其是西部落后地区。针对以上基本结论,本论文得到几点相应的政策启示：加强人力资本积累,改善人力资本不平等,提高我国整体技术创新和技术吸收能力；重视地区间的经济联动,充分利用人力资本空间溢出效应；重视人力资本与其他经济环境变量的互补匹配关系；建立和发展我国人力资本市场,促进人力资本效应的充分发挥。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reforms and opening-up policies began in the late 1970s, China has experienced miraculously rapid economic growth, which attracting extensive attention and research interests from many scholars. As a main tool for dowsing the growth source and evaluating the quality of economic growth, total factor productivity (TFP) is natural to become the focus of in-depth discussion, resulting in a large number of representative literatures. Undoubtedly, these literatures have provided important inspiration and reference value for us to further study. However, this dissertation does not just limit to the point of estimating and segmenting TFP growth in China, but focus more on the relationship between human capital and TFP growth. Theoretically, as the carrier of knowledge and technology, human capital is the most important factor of TFP growth, it exerts effects on TFP growth mainly through two channels:following Romer (1990), human capital may directly influence productivity by determining the capacity of nations to innovate new technologies suited to domestic production. Furthermore, adapting Nelson and Phelps (1966) model, human capital levels would affect the speed of technological catch-up and diffusion. Then in the real economic world, what difference would make between human capital and TFP growth? And what characteristics of human capital effect show on productivity growth? Obviously, replying to the questions would help to profoundly understand the effects of human capital on productivity growth.This dissertation has seven chapters. Chapter 1 brings forward the research questions and Chapter 2 reviews the theoretical and empirically literatures. Chapter 3 employs two different methods of DEA and SFA to estimate and segment provincial growth of TFP in China. Chapter 4 to 6 empirically analyzes the effects of human capital on TFP growth from different perspectives. Conclusive remarks and discussions are presented in chapter 7. Overall conclusions are as follows:Firstly, this dissertation estimates and segments provincial growth of TFP, and the results show that TFP in China is increasing and the main source comes from technology progress. The variations of TFP growth in different regions are consistent with each other, while the eastern region shows the fastest-growing in TFP, the western region is the slowest-growing, and the difference between them is significant and almost constant during recent years.Secondly, based on the Benhabib-Spiegel model, this dissertation investigates the effects of human capital and human capital heterogeneity on the provincial productivity growth in China (1990-2007). The results show that, country as a whole, human capital has significantly positive impacts on productivity growth and technological progress; primary education, secondary education and higher education exert different effects on TFP growth; while on eastern, central and western regions, the effects of human capital show distinctly different characters. In addition, this dissertation finds that the relationship between human capital inequality and TFP growth shown as significantly negative in the long run.Thirdly, based on the spatial Benhabib-Spiegel model, this dissertation empirically investigates spatial spillover effects of human capital under the prevailing of regional economic interdependence. The results show that human capital exerts significantly positive spillover effects on TFP growth and technological progress, while negative spillover effects on efficiency improvement. When inspecting different levels of education, we find that secondary education has significantly positive spatial spillover effects on TFP growth and technological progress, while higher education showing negative effects.Finally, the effects from human capital in a given region are closely related to specifical economic environment, such as economic development, openness of economy, physical capital, infrastructure, and urbanization be sure to go up to play important role on the human capital growth effects, and show threshold characteristics to some extent. From the results of view, those whose economic variable goes beyond a certain threshold value, the effects of human capital on productivity growth will show stronger, and these provinces mainly come from eastern regions, while central and western regions show poor performance.On the basis of the conclusion above, this dissertation puts forward some corresponding policy suggestions, including strengthening human capital accumulation, optimizing human capital distribution, making full use of human capital spatial spillovers between regions, emphasizing the complementary match between human capital and other economic variables, and promoting the formation of human capital market in China.更多还原