国际产品内贸易的模式、效应与政策研究

【作者】 顾磊；

【导师】 黄兆基；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 国际产品内分工是一种以产品的生产工序为分工依据,分散在不同空间的复杂化国际生产网络。它使贸易对象从产业和产品层面深入到工序层面,特定产品的生产过程被拆分为不同的生产价值链环节,安排到具有不同要素禀赋条件的国家和地区进行,国际贸易的性质、规模、利益分配,以及国家之间的发展竞争模式,都因此发生了重要改变。作为在全球经济一体化背景之下国际生产网络和产品内分工的主要推动者,发达国家跨国公司的海外扩张活动使得产品内贸易主要表现为内部化FDI和外包两种生产组织形态。内部化和外包的核心内涵都在于产品生产过程的不同工序或区段被人为地在地理空间上进行分割之后,扩散到不同的国家进行,其实质是生产布局的国际区位选择,因此都属于产品内贸易的理论范畴,二者在产生动因和经济效应等方面既有联系也有区别。而产品内贸易模式的最终选择是各种供给和需求因素综合作用的结果,究竟孰轻孰重要视跨国公司的总体战略发展目的以及在各子目标间的均衡状态而定。首先,跨国公司垂直FDI的必然结果是生产的内部化和随之而来的贸易内部化,一方面生产内部化本身就意味着建立在垂直一体化基础上的生产工序间国际分工的存在；另一方面,不同的产品内分工对象对应着不同性质和程度的内部化收益与成本。企业通过在海外建立内部市场的方式开展公司内贸易,可以在利用行政权威协调企业内部资源配置的同时,保护自身特有的垄断优势,避免外部市场不完全对企业经营效率和经济利益的不利影响。第二,发达国家与发展中国家之间国际贸易活动的重新兴起,很大程度上又是与国际外包这一国际贸易方式的繁荣密不可分,外包的内容从实体性制造外包向非实体性服务外包的转移和升级,不仅进一步加深了广大发展中国家融入国际产品内分工的程度,而且更有利于其实现在产品价值链环节上的攀升,从而走出一条可持续发展的经济增长之路。按照对垂直专业化组织模式的划分,研究产品内贸易的经济效果可以分别从垂直一体化效应和垂直非一体化效应,即FDI效应和外包效应两个方面进行说明。FDI主要考察其对经济增长、贸易总量、收入就业和技术外溢等领域的影响,而关于国际外包效应的研究则可以分为制造外包和服务外包两大领域,主要涉及到生产效率效应和收入分配效应等方面的内容。具体的研究方法有理论定性分析和实证定量分析两类。特别地,虽然传统的贸易理论预示着国际服务外包有利于贸易双方整体福利的提高,但发达国家依旧在平均生活标准、国内就业和工作替代、收入分配以及国家安全与消费者隐私等方面严重质疑服务外包的可靠性。单从提高粮食价格、减免农业税负、降低农业生产成本和深化户籍改革等制度层面考虑无法解释我国城乡收入差距不断扩大的客观事实。在对国际产品内贸易与中国城乡收入差距关系的实证研究之中,国际外包的经济效应可以分解为产出效应和成本效应,收入差距与加工贸易之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,加工贸易出口与进口对城乡收入比率的影响是反方向的：加工贸易出口虽然对缩小收入差距有正面影响,但作用不显著；而加工贸易进口率每增长10%,城乡收入差距就会扩大约0.7%。这充分证明中国的比较优势现状与产业和贸易结构升级之间存在着矛盾,在现有城乡人力资本结构之下,产业贸易结构的升级必然导致城乡差距的扩大,缩小城乡人力资本水平的差异应该成为解决城乡收入差距问题的长远着力点。发展服务外包,特别是主动性的服务发包,可以成为发展中国家参与国际服务外包竞争和提高产品内分工地位的有效战略。服务发包一方面可以提高经济整体的福利,另一方面还能够缓解制造外包情况下劳动力相对收入下降的情况,从而起到缩小收入差距的作用。此外,维护和更新通讯技术和交通运输网络等领域的固定成本,会影响发展中国家国内不同生产要素的收益水平和国家的整体福利。最后,理论和经验事实都以毋庸置疑的说服力证明了世界范围内贸易壁垒的普遍削减是实现产品内分工贸易的基本前提,自由贸易是所有国家根据自身比较优势融入全球化大生产的必由之路,是经济全球化条件下贸易政策的必然导向。以政府和企业共谋为显著特征的战略性贸易政策由于存在着“选不准”特征、非正和博弈以及“马太效应”等三方面的缺陷,发展中国家在制定政策时对其应该持客观和谨慎的态度。在产品内贸易发展战略的选取上,发展中国家应该坚持自由贸易的政策基调、比较优势的竞争原则、提高国内采购率的实现途径、提升人力资本水平的核心举措和高科技服务业的发展目标。更多还原

【Abstract】 International intra-product division is a kind of complicated international producing network distributed in different places in which the job is divided according to the production process. It allows trade partners from industry and product level deepen into the process level. The production process of specific products is divided into different production value chain and arranged to countries and regions with different factors and resources. Therefore, important changes have taken place in the nature, scale, and benefits distribution of international trade, as well as in the development mode of competition between countries.As the prime promoters of the international production networks and intra-product division under the background of economic globalization, the overseas expansion of the multi-national corporations from the developed countries make the intra-product mainly in two forms:internal-oriented FDI and outsourcing. The core substance of internalization and outsourcing relies upon the course that different production processes or sections were artificially divided in geographic space and extended to different countries, and the essence is the international zone choice of production layout. Therefore, they both belong to the theory of intra-product trade. These two forms have relationships as well as differences either in the motivation or the economic effects.However, the final choice of the intra-product trade pattern is the result of the combined effects from varieties of supply and demand factors, and the significance of which is decided by the state of equalization between the general purposes and the sub-goals of strategic development made by multi-national corporations. First of all, the corollary of vertical FDI by multi-national corporations is the internalization of production and the trade internalization followed. On the one hand, the internalization of production means to build the international division of labour based on the vertical integration; on the other hand, the different objects of intra-product specialization correspond with internalized profits and costs in different nature and degree. Making intra-markets overseas to develop intra-corporate trade, enterprises can protect their monopoly advantage while coordinate their configuration resources using the administrative authority, in order to avoid adverse impact.on operation efficiency and economic benefits caused by incomplete foreign markets. Second, the revival of the international trade between developed and developing countries is closely related to the boom of international outsourcing in a large degree. The content of outsourcing has transferred and upgraded from production to service, which not only deepen the degree of integration of many developing countries into international intra-product division, but also benefit their rise on production value chain, so that they can march on the road of sustainable development of economic growth.According to the division of vertical specialized organizing mode, the study of the economic effect of intra-product trade can be explained by vertical integration and vertical disintegration effects, i.e. FDI effect and outsourcing effect. FDI studies mainly on the effect of economic rise, the total volume of trade, income and employment, as well as technology spillover; while international outsourcing effect can be divided into producing products outsourcing and service outsourcing, which refers to producing efficiency effect and income distribution effect, and so on. The specific study methods include theory qualitative analysis and demonstration quantitative analysis. Particularly, the traditional trade theory indicate that the international service outsourcing can generally increase the profits of both sides in trade, but developed countries still question seriously the reliability of service outsourcing on the factors of living standard, domestic employment, job replacement, income distribution and homeland security as well as the privacy of customers.We can not explain the increasing income disparity between the rural and urban areas only considering the policy factors, such as raising the government purchase price of grain, reducing agriculture taxation and producing costs, as well as deepen the household registry reform.In the empirical study of the relationship between the international intra-product trade and the income disparity between the rural and urban areas, the economic effect of international outsourcing can be divided into output effects and cost effects. The income disparity has a long-term stable equilibrium relationship with the processing trade, but the export and import of the processing trade’s influence on the urban-rural income ratio is in the opposite direction:the processing trade exports have a positive impact on narrowing the income disparity, not so noticeable, though; while, with the rate of processing trade imports increase by 10% for each urban-rural income gap will widen about 0.7%. This fully proves that the status of comparative advantage in China is in conflict with the industry and trade structure upgrade. Under the current urban-rural human capital structure, the upgrade of the industry and trade structure must lead to the widen of the urban-rural gap. Therefore, narrowing the differences of urban-rural human capital level should be the long-term focus of the resolution to the income disparity between the urban and rural areas.The development of service outsourcing, especially the initiative service outsourcing, could be the effective strategy for the developing countries to participate in international service outsourcing competition and improve the status of intra-product division. Service outsourcing on the one hand can improve the overall economic welfare, on the other hand it can ease the situation of relative decline of the labor income on the condition of manufacturing outsourcing to narrow the income disparity. Besides, the fixed costs on maintenance and updating of communications technology and transportation networks,etc., will have an impact on the income level of different domestic production factors in the developing countries and the nation’s overall well-being.At last, both theories and facts have indubitably proved that the general decrease of the trade barrier in the world wide is the basic premise of intra-product division trade, and that free trade is the only way leading every country into globalized production according to their comparative advantage respectively, which is the inevitable trend of trade policy under the circumstance of globalization. With the marked characteristic of cooperation between governments and enterprises, strategic trade policy has three disadvantages which are Uncertainty, Non-cooperative Game and Matthew Effect, so that developing countries should remain objective and prudent when they are formulating policies. In the development strategy selection of intra-product division, developing countries should persist in the basic policy of free trade, the competitive principle of comparative advantage, the practicable methods of increasing domestic rate of adoption, the core act of raising the quality of human resources, and the development aim of building high technology service industry.更多还原