【作者】 何力武；

【导师】 安虎森；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 区域经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放后,中国经济整体上取得了有目共睹的进步,然而不同区域的经济增长绩效存在差异,这种整体经济高速增长以及增长的区域差异都令人关注。因此,如何实现区域协调发展已经成为我国政府宏观经济管理中迫切需要解决的重大问题。一个可行的做法是：充分发挥转移支付的均等化效应,最终在宏观地区层面实现产业分布和收入分布的平衡,在微观个体层面实现福利水平的地区间均等。基于这样的思路,本文尝试在新经济地理学视角下探讨转移支付的宏观效应、区位效应以及福利效应。这不仅是因为新经济地理学构建了具有微观基础和空间维度的一般均衡分析框架,便于将转移支付置于整个经济系统中考虑其作用机理和相关效应；而且还因为转移支付能够成为解决我国区域差异问题的有力政策手段,转移支付的规模和分配方式将关系着我国未来的经济发展效益和全民福利水平。具体而言,本文将着重探讨三个问题：不同类型的转移支付面临着什么样的“效率”和“公平”权衡?基于不同计算方式的转移支付会对落后地区产生什么样的综合经济效应?基于不同资金来源的转移支付又会对不同地区不同要素所有者以及全社会产生什么样的福利影响?旨在进一步增进人们对如何实现区域协调发展的理解。有鉴于此,本文主要进行了如下四项工作,并得到了一系列有意义的结论。首先,我们基于局部溢出模型构建了一个关于经济增长、产业分布和转移支付三者相互影响的综合分析框架,用于考察不同类型转移支付所面临的“效率”和“公平”权衡。我们发现,如果中央政府实施影响经济活动空间分布的措施,如通过转移支付实现了资本向落后地区转移或改善了落后地区基础设施,那么在缩小区际产业和收入差距的同时,还有可能降低整体经济的增长率。当然我们也发现了多种可以实现“效率”和“公平”兼得的转移支付方式,例如将转移支付用于提升创新能力、扩大有效需求、发展商贸活动以及提振市场信心。这些措施要么降低了创新成本,要么提高了有效需求,从而推动经济的高速增长。同时,地区市场拥挤效应的增强将导致当地资本利润水平的下降,最终获得更公平的产业和收入分布。其次,我们基于自由资本模型,在一般均衡框架下重点考察了三种补贴落后地区企业生产过程的转移支付——利润补贴、固定投入补贴和产量补贴,并通过解析的形式展示了这三种生产型转移支付的综合经济效应。我们发现：首先,转移支付的效应会随着一体化程度的深入而增强。其次,上述三种转移支付虽然都能起到缩小区际产业分布差距的作用,但是在改善区际收入差距方面的效果却不同。具体而言,产量补贴因为提高了落后地区工人的收入水平,所以可以缩小区际收入差距；而有悖于一般认识,利润补贴和固定投入补贴反而会扩大区际收入差距。最后,利润补贴和固定投入补贴对落后地区工业劳动力需求的影响难以确定。补贴所引致的企业进入并没有如人所愿地创造出更多的就业岗位,原因可能是新企业的进入导致了原有企业的生产萎缩或倒闭。再次,我们将消费异质性和局部知识溢出纳入自由企业家模型中,考察了不同转移支付的福利效应。分析表明,转移支付的福利效应除了取决于交易成本水平(一体化程度)、消费异质化程度、溢出效应强度这些等客观因素,还取决于社会价值观这一主观因素。具体而言,在一体化程度和消费异质化程度比较低并且溢出效应不太显著的情况下,产业转移型转移支付在福利改善方面相对较优；反之,则收入型转移支付相对较优。另外,如果社会大众对公平的重视程度越高,那么他们越会倾向于支持政府干预市场结果。由此,追求公平的政府应该在一体化程度比较低的情况下采取产业转移型转移支付,在一体化程度比较高的情况下采取收入型转移支付,而当一体化程度处于中间水平时,政府应放任市场自由运作。最后,我们结合西部大开发的现实背景和相应的政策模拟结果,提出：政府在设计一个具体的转移支付措施时,思考不能局限于转移支付的直接效应和短期效应,还应该深入探讨其可能的间接效应和长期效应,最重要的是一定要考虑转移支付与其作用区域的匹配性,因为不同转移支付对不同经济变量的作用机理和影响程度是不同的。本文的主题是：通过拓展新经济地理学模型,考察了不同类型转移支付所面临的“效率”和“公平”权衡、转移支付对落后地区所产生的综合经济效应以及对不同个体和整体社会的福利影响,进一步增进了人们对如何利用转移支付推动区域协调发展的理解。在新经济地理学框架内研究转移支付在区域协调发展中的作用,几乎是一个全新的研究方向,还有很大的可扩展空间。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since reform and opening up, China’s overall economy makes obvious progress. However, the performances of economic growth are quite different in different regions of China. The rapid growth of the whole country’s economic, as well as the difference of regions, are so remarkable that it has becomes an urgent and major problem for the government’s macroeconomic administrative authority to achieve the coordinated development of regions. One possible approach is to make full use of the effect of the transfer payments on equalization of public services. And ultimately, it will come true both the equality of industrial distribution and income at the macro-regional level and the equality of welfare at the micro-individual level among regions.Based on this view, this paper try to discuss the macro effect, the location effect and the welfare effect of transfer payments from the perspective of New Economic Geography. On the one hand, New Economic Geography has some special micro-foundations so that we can easily put the space dimension into the general equilibrium framework. New Economic Geography facilitates us to put the transfer payment into an entire economic system to consider the mechanism and the related effects. On the other hand, the transfer payments will be effective policy instruments to achieve the coordinated development of regions. The scale and distribution of transfer payments will be related to China’s future development performance and the whole country welfare. Specifically, this paper focuses on three issues. What kind of "efficient" and "fair" trade-off will be faced by different types of transfer payments? What kind of comprehensive economic effects will come true by different methods of transfer payments calculation methods in the backward region? To owners of different factors and the whole society, what kind of welfare effects will be faced by using different methods to finance transfer payments? The aim of this paper is to further enhance the understanding of the coordinated development of regions.For these, this paper carries the following four tasks, and draws some meaningful conclusions. Firstly, basing on the local spillover model, we construct a comprehensive analysis framework about economic growth, spatial distribution and transfer payments, in order to investigate "efficiency" and "fair" tradeoff of transfer payments. We find that if we try to implement some measures to influence economic spatial distribution, such as a general transfer payments or improvement of infrastructure facilities in the backward region, the cost may be lower overall economic growth rate. Of course, we also found a variety of transfer payment methods that can achieve both "efficiency" and "equity". For example, the transfer payments which can enhance innovation capacity, expand effective demand, develop business activities and boost market confidence will either reduce the innovation cost or increase effective demand in the market, so that they can push economic growth rapidly. Thereby profits decrease by enhancing crowding effect, while income and economic activity achieve a more equitable space distribution.Secondly, basing on the footloose capital model, we focused on three types of transfer payments to subsidize production process of firms in the backward region, profit subsidies, fixed input subsidies and output subsidies. We discuss the overall economic effect of these three production transfers by analytical derivation. We find: Firstly, the economic effects of transfer payments will strengthen with the increasing integration level. Secondly, the three transfers can reverse the unequal distribution of industry, but they are different effect on reversing interregional income inequality. In detail, contrary to the general understanding, profit subsidies and fixed input subsidies will exacerbate income inequality between different regions. Production subsidies reduce income gap between regions because of increasing income levels of workers in the backward region. Finally, there is uncertain effect of profit subsidies and fixed inputs subsidies on labor demand of industrial sectors in the backward region. Not as we usually think that the entry enterprise can create more jobs, possibly because the entry of new firms will lead to the production shrink of the original enterprise or close down.Thirdly, we put consume heterogeneity and the local knowledge spillover into footloose entrepreneurs model to study the welfare effects of various transfer payments. Our analysis shows that the welfare effects of transfer payments not only depend on the level of transaction costs (market integration), degree of consume heterogeneity, local spillover effects within industry and inter-industry and substitution elasticity between products, but also depend on social values as a main factor. In particular, if there is relatively low level of market integration, relatively low degree of consumption heterogeneity and less obvious local spillover effects, the transfer payment for industry transfer is optimum. On the contrary situation, income-based transfers are optimum. If people pay great attention to fair from the main social value, and if they incline to support government intervene market operations, the government which pursuit fair will implement industry type transfer payments. And vice versa, the income-based transfers will be taken.Finally, with the background of China’s western development and the corresponding simulation results, we design a specific measure of transfer payments. We should not only focus on indirect effect and short-term effect of policy, but also pay attention to its possible indirect effects and long-term effects. Most importantly, we must consider the fitness between transfer payments and the region which receive transfer payments, because the roles of transfer payments on different economic variables are through different mechanisms and turn out different impact.In this paper, by developing New Economic Geography model, we study the "efficiency" and "fair" trade-off of transfer payment, the effect of transfer payment on the overall economic of the backward region and on the welfare effect of different individuals and the whole society. This paper can further enhance the understanding of how to use transfer payments to achieve the coordinated development of regions. It is almost a new research direction of studying the effect of transfer payments on the regional coordination development in new economic geography framework. There is still much space to explore.更多还原