【作者】 刘建；

【导师】 陈舜； 蒋殿春；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 金融学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 随着经济的持续稳定增长,我国的原油和成品油消费量也逐年快速增长,成为继美国之后的全球第二大石油消费国,并且供需缺口越来越大,原油对外依存度不断上升(2009年已经超过了50%的国际警戒线),超过一半的原油需求要依赖进口。因此,国际油价波动必然会对国内经济产生越来越大的冲击。而近年来的国际石油价格波动剧烈程度超出人们的预料。随着国际金融市场的迅猛发展,国际油价的金融属性正在不断得到强化,期货投机和美元汇率对国际油价波动的影响越来越大。在这种背景下,解决我国应如何有效缓冲国际油价波动冲击这一问题对制定我国长期石油发展战略、保障石油安全和经济稳定都具有重要的理论和现实意义。基于目前国内外已有的文献研究,本文在理论和实证研究方面做了以下三个方面的探索：首先,弄清这一外生冲击的“源头”：对推动国际油价波动主要因素的实证分析；其次,认识国际油价波动冲击的现状及传导机制；再次,分析政府目前的应对措施及存在的问题；最后,结合别国经验,提出缓冲国际油价波动冲击的对策建议。为此,本文框架结构安排如下：第一章为导论,讲述了本文的研究背景和意义,并概括出全文的研究思路和创新点；第二章为国际油价波动的主要动因分析,对推动国际油价波动的市场供求、期货投机、美元汇率等因素进行了实证分析；第三章和第四章分别为国际油价波动对我国经济冲击的经验分析和传导机制分析,并详细分析了我国目前应对国际油价冲击的主要措施(即政府调控下的成品油定价机制)及目前存在的问题；第五章为世界各国应对国际油价冲击的经验借鉴；第六章为缓冲国际油价波动冲击的政策建议,就我国如何有效防范和应对国际油价冲击进行了详细的对策分析。通过理论和实证分析,本文发现：(1)原油期货投机力量已成为推动国际油价波动的重要原因。除了国际油价波动自身,期货投机在短期内的影响最大(贡献率达15%,超过了市场需求因素),但在三个月后其影响逐步下降；长期内,市场需求因素则成为推动国际油价波动的最主要原因,但投机因素仍然对其具有显著影响(其9个月内的贡献率仍保持在10%左右)。此外,美元汇率的变动也显著影响着国际油价的变动,而市场供给和原油储备的影响则相对较弱。(2)国际油价波动会对国内经济造成显著冲击。国际油价上涨不仅会直接导致我国产出水平的下降和物价水平的提高,而且还可能会通过引起紧缩性货币政策的实施和汇率贬值对产出水平产生间接影响；由于政府对油价的调控,国际油价波动对国内经济的冲击有所降低,具有明显的滞后性；国际油价的冲击并没有能够显著降低我国的能源消耗强度,反而与之呈显著正相关关系,即国际油价波动冲击未能有效刺激国内能源利用效率的提高。(3)从我国目前应对国际油价波动冲击的措施来看,在国内石油储备体系和期货市场尚未健全情况下,政府调控下的国内成品油定价机制成为缓冲国际油价冲击的主要政策工具,短期内它具有一定程度的缓冲作用,但却不利于我国长期应对国际油价冲击能力的提高。2009年新实施的成品油价格机制缩小了国内油价与国际油价变化之间的差距,在一定程度上促进国内企业提高能源利用效率和能源消费结构转变,有助于长期内规避石油价格风险,但仍未能充分反映我国石油的供需关系,缺乏对国际原油价格的主动影响力,需要进一步改革与完善。(4)从其他国家的政策实践经验来看,缓冲国际油价波动的短期机制主要包括利用完善的石油储备体系及发达的期货市场来规避价格风险,长期缓冲机制则是在市场化定价机制下,利用市场机制优化能源消费结构、提高其利用效率,并通过完善的石油税收体系调节供求行为。综上所述,本文提出了包括积极利用石油期货市场、完善石油储备、推进成品油定价体制改革和石油税收体系在内的一揽子应对措施。首先,为提高我国应对短期国际油价波动冲击的能力,我国应加快石油储备体系和期货市场建设、增强对国际油价波动的定价权和规避风险能力,也减少成品油定价机制所承担的“缓冲短期国际油价冲击”的职能。在此基础上,政府应加快成品油定价机制市场化改革步伐,使其体现原油成本的长期变动趋势,以发挥价格对资源配置效率的市场调节功能,以逐步提高能源利用效率和优化能源消费结构,不断增强我国长期内应对国际油价冲击的能力。最后,应加快完善我国原油和成品油生产与消费领域的税收体系,实现利用税收工具对石油市场供求行为的有效调节,形成应对国际油价波动冲击的长期机制。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the sustained and steady economic growth, China’s crude oil and refined oil consumption increased year by year, becoming the world’s second largest oil consumer. The gap between oil supply and demand becomes more and more increasing the dependence on foreign oil which became more than 50% of the international warning line in 2009. In other words, more than half of the crude oil demand depends on imports. Therefore, the international oil price fluctuations will inevitably produce a growing impact on the domestic economy. In recent years the intensity of international oil price fluctuations exceeded expectations. With the rapid development of international financial markets, the financial property of international oil price is being constantly strengthened. The impact of futures speculation and the dollar exchange rate index on the international oil price fluctuations is increasing. In this context, it has important theoretical and practical significance for the development of China’s long-term oil development strategy to ensure oil security and economic stability to solve the problems of how to effectively deal with the shocks from international oil prices fluctuations.Based on existing literature at home and abroad, this paper explores the following three aspects with theoretical and empirical research:First, identify "the source" of the exogenous shocks:analyze the factors of international oil prices fluctuations empirically; Secondly, understand the impact of the international oil price fluctuations on Chinese macro-economy and further clarifies a variety of channels and transmission mechanism of the impact; Thirdly, analyze the current response of the government and its problems; Finally, make policy recommendations for dealing with the shocks of international oil prices fluctuations combined with the experience of other countries.To this end, the paper frame as follows:The first chapter is an introduction, describing the research background and significance of this article, and summarizing the full text of research ideas and innovations; the second chapter is the study of the main driving forces of international oil price fluctuations, analyzing the reasons of international oil fluctuations empirically considering market supply and demand, futures speculation, the dollar exchange rate and other factors; chaptersⅢandⅣrespectively introduce the impact and transmission mechanisms of the international oil price fluctuations shocks on China’s economy, and show a detailed analysis of our current response of the government (that is domestic Refined oil pricing mechanism under government control) and its problems; chapterⅤintroduce the experience of other countries in response to the international oil price shocks; chapterⅥmake policy recommendations for dealing with the shocks of international oil prices fluctuations.Through theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper found:(1) Futures speculation forces have become the major reason for the international oil price fluctuations. In addition to fluctuations in international oil prices themselves, futures speculation is the greatest factor in the short term which contribution rate of 15%, exceeding the market demand factor, but its impact declines gradually in three months; In the long run, market demand factors will be the main promotion of international oil prices fluctuations, but speculation is still playing a significant impact on oil price, and the contribution rate of speculation remained at 10% in 9 months. In addition, the U.S. dollar exchange rates also significantly affect the changes of international oil prices, and the impact of market supply and crude oil reserves is relatively weak.(2) The international oil prices fluctuations will have a significant impact on the domestic economy. The increasing of international oil prices will not only directly lead to a decline in our level of output and price levels increase, but also cause tightening monetary policy and exchange rate depreciation and thus produce an indirect effect on output; as government regulation of oil prices, the impact of international oil price fluctuations on the domestic economy have been reduced and significant lagged; international oil price shock was not able to significantly reduce China’s energy consumption intensity, which means that the international oil price shock did not effectively promote domestic energy efficiency.(3) From the perspective of China’s current response for international oil price shocks, the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism become the main policy tool to reduce the shocks of international oil prices fluctuations in the current cases that domestic oil reserve system is not fully developed. In short-term, it plays a cushioning effect for a certain degree. But it is not conducive to improve our long-term ability to cope with the shocks of international oil prices fluctuations. The new oil pricing mechanism implemented in 2009 narrows the gap between changes in international oil prices and the domestic oil prices and promotes domestic enterprises to improve their energy efficiency and energy consumption structure change to a certain extent, which will help to avoid oil price risk in the long run. However, it doesn’t fully reflect the relationship between China’s oil supply and demand, and lack of initiative influence on the international crude oil prices, so it needs further reform and improvement.(4) From the perspective of other countries practice experience, the short-term buffer mechanism for international oil fluctuations includes making use of oil reserve system and developed futures markets to hedge price risk, and long-term buffer mechanism is utilizing market mechanisms to optimize energy consumption structure and increase their efficiency in the market pricing mechanism, and improving the oil tax system to adjusting supply and demand behavior.In summary, this paper include that the optimal response is a package of responses including active use of the oil futures market, improvement the oil stocks, promoting refined oil pricing system reform and oil tax system. First, China should speed up the construction of oil reserve system and futures markets, and enhance the ability on pricing of international oil price and risk-averse, in order to improve our response to short-term fluctuations in international oil prices and less the refined oil pricing mechanism’s functions of "buffer the impact of short-term international oil prices". On this basis, the Government should speed up the market of refined oil pricing mechanism reform, let it reflects the long-term change in trend in crude oil costs in order to play the market regulation functions of price for resource allocation to gradually increase the energy efficiency and optimize energy consumption structure, and continuously improving our long term ability to deal with the international oil price shocks. Finally, China should accelerate the improvement of China’s crude oil and refined oil production and consumption tax system, which should be used to regulate the supply and demand behavior effectively, and establish the long-term mechanism of optimal response on the shocks of international oil price fluctuations.更多还原