【作者】 高玮；

【导师】 王玉茹；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 经济史， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 近代中资商业银行产生于19世纪末,初创时期面临着实力强大的外商银行和传统金融机构的竞争,因此发展速度相对较慢,直到第一次世界大战造成内外经营环境的变化,中资银行才得以获得较快的发展,而这一进程随着抗日战争的爆发被迫中断。新中国实行的计划经济体制下,中国银行业实行“大一统”的国家银行体制,中国人民银行是全国唯一的信贷中心、结算中心和货币发行中心。1978年之后,伴随着经济体制改革的进程,“大一统”的银行体制也逐渐被打破,成立了四大专业银行,80年代中期以后,四大专业银行开始进行企业化和商业化改革,同时,一些区域性、全国性股份制商业银行相继建立,中国商业银行再一次获得了发展的历史机遇。因此,可以认为两次世界大战之间以及20世纪80年代中期以来的两个时段是中资银行发展的重要时期。本文的研究目的是考察竞争程度与银行绩效之间的关系。首先,本文选用结构法和非结构法两种方法判断了近代和当代中国银行业竞争程度,其中,结构法发现近代上海和全国性中资银行的市场集中度在1918-1936年间均呈现出下降的趋势,市场结构都由极高寡占型向中集中寡占型转变；当代中国银行业处于国有商业银行较高垄断的市场竞争格局,但是市场集中度在样本期内也呈现出下降的态势,相应的,市场结构已经显现出从寡头垄断向垄断竞争市场结构过渡的趋势。根据结构法可以判断出,随着市场集中度的下降,近代和当代中国银行业市场竞争程度应当都呈现出逐渐上升的态势。非结构法则更为准确地测度了近代和当代中国银行业的竞争程度,其中,勒纳指数法(Lemer Index)被用于测度近代中国银行业的竞争程度,结果表明近代上海和全国性中资银行的竞争程度在1918-1936年间呈现出上升的趋势,20世纪30年代市场竞争程度的上升趋势表现得更为明显,其平均水平显著高于20年代；Panzar-Rosse模型被用于测度当代中国银行业的竞争程度,结果发现当代中国银行业竞争程度在样本期内呈现出上升的趋势,而且市场结构在样本期内由寡头垄断型转变为垄断竞争型。结构法与非结构法的测度结果均表明近代和当代中国银行业的市场集中度与竞争程度之间呈现出反向的关系,即随着市场集中度的下降,银行业竞争程度逐步上升。第二,银行绩效包含微观企业和宏观两个层面,本文主要运用效率水平代表银行微观层面的绩效,首先,通过数据包络分析方法(DEA)分析近代中资银行的效率水平,结果发现近代上海中资银行技术效率水平在样本期内呈现出波动下降的趋势,而全国性中资银行的技术效率相对较为平稳,但是,两者均表现为20世纪20年代的效率水平整体上高于30年代的效率水平。其次,运用随机前沿分析方法(SFA)估计了当代中国银行业的成本和利润效率状况,结果发现股份制商业银行的效率水平总体上高于同期的国有制商业银行,国有制商业银行与股份制商业银行的成本效率在逐渐缩小,而利润效率的差距则在逐渐扩大。为了分析银行业市场竞争程度与效率这一微观层面的绩效指标之间的关系,分别运用散点图趋势回归线和格兰杰因果检验方法判断近代和当代中国银行业竞争与效率之间的关系,结果表明近代上海中资银行以及全国性中资银行的竞争与效率之间呈现出反向的变动关系,即随着银行业竞争程度的上升,效率呈现出下降的趋势；与此相反,当代中国银行业竞争程度与成本效率之间呈现出正相关关系,银行业竞争程度是效率提高的格兰杰原因,即银行业竞争程度的上升提高了成本效率水平。第三,为了分析竞争与银行宏观层面绩效的关系,本文通过考察银行业竞争对我国制造业部门外部融资行为的影响,间接判断竞争对经济增长的影响。结果表明我国银行业竞争程度的提高有利于外部融资依赖度较高的制造业部门的发展,因为竞争程度的提高促使银行业改善经营管理水平、提高效率,为制造业部门提供更为便捷的服务,为外部融资依赖度较高的制造业部门的发展提供了便利,有利于此类制造业部门加快投资,制造业部门的技术进步、规模扩张所带来的产量增加,产品带有更高的技术附加值,使得制造业部门具有更强的市场竞争力,间接推动了国民经济增长。综上所述,本文对中国近代和当代银行业内部管理制度与外部经营环境的分析,支持了结构-行为-绩效(SCP)假说,即市场集中度与竞争程度之间呈负相关关系；同时,为竞争提高效率的观点提供了证伪的依据,即只有在有序和适度的竞争环境中,竞争程度的提高才会促进企业效率的提升；最后,为当代中国银行业市场结构的调整提供了理论依据,即当代中国银行业市场可以进一步放松进入壁垒,增强银行业竞争程度,这不仅有利于银行效率水平的提高,而且有助于经济增长目标的实现。更多还原

【Abstract】 Chinese commercial banks in modern China were founded in the late of 19th century. They had to compete with foreign banks and traditional financial institutions in the first stage, so that they developed slowly until the break of the First World War. Because the First World War changed the business environment of Chinese commercial banks, however, anti-Japan war interrupted the development process. The People’s Republic of China implemented planned economy institution; the banking of china adopted state banking system, People’s Bank of China was the unique center of credit, settlement and the issue of money. As the reform of economic system since 1978, the state banking system was broken, meanwhile, four specialized banks were established and these four banks experienced commercialized reform after the middle of 1980s. At the same time, a lot of regional and national joint stock commercial banks were established, Chinese commercial banks had another chance to develop.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between competition degree and bank performance. First, we estimated the competition degree of modern and present banking of china by structural and non-structural method. The structural method shows that the concentration rate of regional banks in Shanghai and national banks during 1918 to 1936 had a declining trend, and the market structure turned from supreme oligopoly to middle rate of oligopoly. The main character of Present China’s banking is that state owned banks have a monopoly advantage. At the same time, the concentration rate declines during the sample period and the market structure turns from oligopoly to monopolistic competition. According to the structural method, the degree of modern and present banking competition should be uprising as the concentration rate declines. We also used non-structural method to measure the degree of modern and present banking competition. Lerner Index method was used to estimate the degree of modern china banking competition and the result shows that the degree of modern national banking and regional banking in Shanghai have the trend of uprising during 1918 to 1936, furthermore, the uprising trend of competition during 1930s is more significant, the average level is more great than 1920s. Panzar-Rosse model was used to estimate the competition degree of modern China and the result shows that the competition degree has an uprising trend, meanwhile, the market structure changed from oligopoly to monopolistic competition.The results of structural and non-structural method show that the competition degree and concentration rate during modern and present China’s banking is negatively related, which means that the banking competition degree rises while the concentration rate declines.Second, bank performance comprises micro and macro levels, we use efficiency level to represent micro level bank performance. Data envelope analysis(DEA) method was used to estimate the efficiency of modern Chinese banking and the result shows that the technical efficiency of modern regional banks in Shanghai has a fluctuate declining trend, in contrary, the trend of technical efficiency of modern Chinese national banks is more stead. However, they all show that the efficiency level of 1930s is lower than 1920s. Consequently, stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) method was used to estimate the cost and profit efficiency of present China’s banking, the result shows that the efficiency of joint-stock commercial banks is more great than state owned commercial banks, the gap between the cost efficiency of state owned and joint-stock commercial banks decreases, while the gap between the profit efficiency of two kind of commercial banks spreads.In order to analyze the relationship between banking competition and efficiency, we used scattered picture regression line and granger causality test method to analyze the relationship between competition and efficiency of modern and present Chinese banking. The result shows that the relationship between competition and efficiency of modern regional banks in Shanghai and national banks is negatively related, which means as the banking competition increases, the efficiency declines. In contrary, the relationship between banking competition degree and cost efficiency of present China is positively related, furthermore, competition degree of banking is the granger cause of efficiency, which means the increase of banking competition raise the cost efficiency.Third, for analyzing the relationship between competition and macro level performance, we analyzed the influence of banking competition on the finance behavior of manufacturing department, so as to judge the influence on economic development indirectly. The result shows that the increase of competition degree is benefit for the development of greater financial dependent manufacturing industry, because the increase of competition degree promotes banks to improve management and efficiency, so that they can provide more convenient services for manufacturing department, which benefited the development of more financial dependent manufacturing industry since these department can increase investment. These benefits can promote the technological advances and scale expansion. In this way, the banking competition can improve the economic development.In a word, the analysis of management institution and business environment of modern and present Chinese banking supported the idea of Structure-Conduction-Performance (SCP), which means the concentration rate and competition degree is negatively related. Meanwhile, this paper provided the falsification evidence for the idea that competition can improve the efficiency. The increase of the competition degree can improve the efficiency only in the orderly competition environment.Finally, this paper provided theory basis for the adjustment of present China’s banking market. The government can relax the barrier to entry which will enhance the competition degree; it will be not only benefiting to the improvement of the efficiency, but also will be contributing for economic development.更多还原