【作者】 李凌云；

【导师】 刘骏民；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 西方经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 本文通过对不同形态国际货币体系进行系统性梳理与考察,指出其演变反映了国际货币对统一性的极大需求,以及货币的社会属性越来越强的趋势。在此基础上分析得到国际货币体系演变的两大规律：第一,国际货币体系形成和演变的核心力量是利益关系及其背后的经济实力,而非汇率安排、贸易体制等制度层面的问题；第二,在国际货币体系演变过程中,政府力量逐渐取代了早期的自然因素,成为决定国际货币体系格局的主导力量。1971年8月15日,美国宣布停止美元兑换黄金,拯救了美元,拉开了国际货币体系的“黄金非货币化”时代。在这个时代,美元居于整个国际货币体系中的核心地位。美国政府凭借着美元的核心地位,有意识的将美国的国际收支赤字作为美国在国际金融领域“金融搭便车”的工具,用来巩固和扩大美元的霸主地位,确立了美元国际本位货币地位。欧元正式对外流通后,很快成为了美元之外的另一个国际本位货币。从此,国际货币体系进入了美元和欧元两大国际本位货币共同存在、同时运行的“双本位”时代。为获取更大的利益,美元和欧元竞相滥发,导致美元和欧元以及它们的资产持续高速扩张、充斥于全世界,加剧了全球流动性膨胀。在金本位时代,黄金以很强的可兑换性维护了该体系在其初期的稳定性。但是,作为本位货币的黄金在执行一般等价物的社会职能时,却无法摆脱个别使用价值的束缚。货币在充当一般等价物时,其本质上要求它脱离和任何实际商品的联系,这就注定了黄金只能是货币的一种过渡形式。随着商品经济的发展,金本位就变得越来越不稳定。此外,不同国家间货币安排和储备结构的巨大差异、经济力量和外部利益的不对称、外围的不稳定、资本主义自身的内在矛盾等因素也加剧了这种不稳定性。金汇兑本位国际货币体系的确立就充分显示了黄金等贵金属有逐渐非货币化的趋势,使国际间的本位货币与非本位货币区别开来。在这一时期,国际货币体系的支配性力量(核心力量)开始消失,导致国际经济关系严重缺乏协调机制,这是该体系不稳定的首要原因。此外,低效率的国际收支调节机制和国际清偿力的严重短缺是该体系不稳定的另外两个重要原因。布雷顿森林体系的建立结束了此前国际货币体系的混乱局面,将当时的国际货币体系带入了短暂稳定的时期。然而,货币的公器性质与其为私利而进行控制之间的矛盾、储备机制与调节机制的缺陷、以及“特里芬两难”等问题的存在注定了该体系不可能保持长久的稳定。黄金非货币化以后,国际货币体系不稳定性是从货币的不稳定性开始的。失去黄金限制的美元,无约束的对外滥发,降低了人们对美元的信心,冲击了该体系稳定性的根基。美联储的权责不对称、汇率波动不断加剧、调节渠道有限、国际游资严重冲击、参与权和决策权的不公平性等使得该体系更加不稳定。上世纪八十年代以来,美国出现“去工业化”和“经济虚拟化”现象,导致了美国经济和美元支柱的虚拟化。欧元诞生之后,很快获得了国际本位货币的地位,并且以超过美元的速度重复着美元的游戏,引发了欧元和欧元区经济支柱的虚拟化。这使得国际货币体系的根基严重虚拟化。货币在其流通范围内的统一性要求是不以人的意志为转移的客观规律,欧元的出现破坏了这种统一性。这又使得当前的“双本位”货币体系也不可能是一种稳定的制度安排。根据国际货币体系的演变规律和利益关系,新的国际货币体系的确立应充分重视各国的利益、积极发挥市场的作用、有效约束对外流动性的供给、积极维持国际货币环境的稳定。中国强大经济实力的参与和政府的积极推动,使得以经济实力为核心利益关系的未来货币体系的最大可能是美元——欧元——人民币联盟。这种以最有实力的主权货币为核心所形成新的货币体系,可以通过以多打少来约束破坏协议的经济大国,维持国际货币体系的稳定性。中国强大的实体经济和高额的外汇储备为人民币谋求世界多极货币体系中的一极奠定了基础。当前,中国国内流动性膨胀的压力、人民币升值的预期、新的国际货币体系对人民币的需要、以及中国在维护未来国际货币体系稳定的过程中所肩负的大国责任都使得人民币国际化十分必要。人民币国际化将中国强大实体经济注入到国际货币体系之中,既能够维护国际货币体系稳定性,也可以解决当前中国宏观经济困境,解决中国“大经济”与“小货币”间的矛盾。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper systematily cards and studies the international monetary system with different forms, and indicates that its evolution reflects the international monetary’s great demand for the unity and monetary’s social attributes has been growing stronger and stronger. On this basis, we obtain two laws of the international monetary system’s evolution. One is that the core strength of the international monetary system’s formation and evolution is the interest relationship and economic strength instead of system issues such as exchange rate arrangements or trading system; the other is that the government forces gradually replaced the earlier natural factors and become the dominant force leading the international monetary system’s pattern and involution.U.S.A declared that it had stoped redeeming dollars for gold on August-15-1971. This action saved U.S.dollar, but opened he international monetary’s new times that is "non-monetary gold". In this time, U.S.dollar lived in the core of the international monetary system. U.S.A taked advantage of this opportunity to use U.S.A’s balance of payments deficit as its "financial free ride" tool in the international financial field. Under these conditions, U.S.A consolidated and expanded U.S.dollar’s dominance, and established the dollar as the international standard currency. Euro quickly became another international standard currency after it circulated. Since then, the international monetary system entered into "double standard" times. In this times, U.S.dollar and Euro co-exist and co-run. To obtain more benefits, U.S.dollar and Euro are over-issued in the way of competition, which cause U.S.dollar, Euro and their assets continuously expand with high speed, and intensify the expansion of global liquidity.In the gold standard international monetary system, gold depends its strong convertibility to maintain this system stability in the early stage. However, when gold implementation of the general equivalent of the social functions, it could not escape the shackles of individual value. When currency acts as a general equivalent, its nature requests it break away any actual product, which doomed that the gold can only be a transitional form of currency. With the development of commodity economy, this system had become increasingly unstable. In addition, the huge differences in monetary arrangements and the reserves’s structure, the asymmetry between economic power and external interests, external instability, its own inherent contradictions of capitalism, and other factors exacerbated this instability.Gold exchange standard international monetary system’s establishment fully displays the gold and other precious metals had the gradual trend of non-monetary, and distinguished the standard currency and non-standard currency. During this period, the international monetary system’s dominant force began to disappear, which leaded to a serious lack of coordination mechanism of the international economic system. This defect is the primary cause of instability in the system.The establishment of the Bretton Woods system ended the chaotic situation of its previous international monetary system, and broughtthe international monetary system into a brief period with stability. But, currency’s nature of public tool has serious contradiction with its control for private interests. At the same time, its reserve mechanism and adjustment mechanism had critical flaw, and "Triffin dilemma" phenomenon become more severe with its development. All of these problems determined that the system can not maintain long-term stability.After the non-monetary gold, the instability of the international monetary system beganning from the currency. When U.S.dollar lost the limit of U.S.A’s gold, U.S.dollar began to be issued without any constraint, which reducedpeople’s confidence in the dollar and severely impacted the foundation of the stability of the international monetary system.Since 1980, U.S.A’s economy appeared the "de-industrialization" and "economic fictionalization" phenomenon, which led the fictionalization of U.S. economy and U.S.dollar’s pillars. Euro quickly obtained the status of the international standard currency after its birth, and repeated U.S.dollar’s games with hinger speed than U.S.dollar, which cause the pillar’s fictionalization of the euro and the euro-zone economy. What has mentioned above makes the foundation of the international monetary system seriously fictionalizate. The unity of currency in its circulation can not be shifted with men’s willpower, but the euro destroyed this unity, which makes the "double standard"montary system can not be a stable institutional arrangement.According to the evolution law and the interest relation of the international monetary system, we hold that the new international monetary system should fully attach importance to every country’s interests, and postively play the role of the market, and effective restraint the external supply of liquidity, and actively maintain the stability of the international monetary environment. The participation of China’s powerful economic strength and the government’s active promotion will makes the new international monetary system’s largest trend is the monetary union of U.S.dollar, Euro and RMB, because it gives the expression of the core interest relation basing on economic strength. The new international monetary system which is based on the most powerful monetary sovereignty can restrain economic power who damage agreement through multi-fight it and maintainits stability.China’s real economy and strong foreign exchange reserves creates a good foundation for RMB to seek a polar in the multi-polar international monetary system. At the present, the press from the excess of liquidity of our country, and the lighten the anticipation of RMB’s appreciation, and the new international monetary system need for the RMB, and Chinese powerful state responsibility in maintaining the stability of the new international monetary system make RMB’s internationalization be bery necessary. RMB’s internationalization makes Chinese powerful real economy injected into the real economy into the international monetary system inject into international monetary system,which not only solve some current puzzledoms of our country’s macroeconomic, but also resolve the serious contradiction betweenChinese status of largest economy and the role of small money of RMB.更多还原