【作者】 何溪明；

【导师】 邱立成；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 世界经济， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 无论在国内还是在国外,房地产业在运动与发展过程中都客观存在着周期波动循环的现象。但房地产市场的过度波动,会影响到国民经济的正常运行,因此需要完善房地产宏观调控体系。本文从全球视角出发,采用综合研究与分析研究相结合、短期研究与长期研究相结合、计量经济与统计学方法、比较研究方法等,对房地产周期及其政府的反周期调控政策进行深入研究。第一,本文采用面板数据模型,对主要国家及地区房地产周期的主要影响因素进行分析,并归纳总结各国在房地产周期的调控方面所取得的经验和教训。第二,本文采用主成分分析方法对大陆房地产周期进行因素分析,并拟合大陆房地产周期指数。承认大陆房地产周期的客观存在,一是需要回答产生和形成大陆房地产周期波动的内在机制。二是进一步剖析房地产周期的影响因素和决定力量。第三,本文采用VAR模型对这些因素对房价所产生的脉冲效应和方差贡献进行分析,能够加深我们对大陆房地产周期的影响因素的认识,弥补国内相关学术研究的薄弱之处。第四,本文运用SVAR模型,对大陆房价与地价的相互关系进行了格兰杰因果检验。论文检验了大陆地价和房价之间的相互关系,从而开拓性地否定了“政府原罪论”的观点。20世纪90年代以来,大陆房地产周期大致包括两个发展阶段：1990—1997年的第一次房地产周期波动(属于转轨时期)和1998年至今的第二次房地产周期(住房制度改革至今)。随着房地产市场化进程深入,房地产供求矛盾和房地产泡沫等问题不断凸显,同时政府对房地产市场进行着逆周期的宏观政策调控。研究表明,大陆需要在房地产行业调控、房地产市场规范和住房保障体系建设这三个领域,调整政府的行政干预行为,完善房地产资源配置的市场体制和机制,才能促进大陆房地产市场健康发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Whether at home or abroad, real estate development process in motion and there are periodic fluctuations in the objective cycle phenomenon. But the real estate market volatility will affect the normal operation of the national economy, so need to improve the real estate macro control system.This article embarks from the international angle of view’s macroscopic stratification plane, uses the synthetic study and the analytical study unifies, the short-term research and the long-term research unifies, the measurement economy and the statistical method, the comparison research technique and so on, conducts the deep research to the real estate cycle and the regulative policy.First, this article uses panel data model, the main countries and regions of the main factors affecting the real estate cycle analysis, and summarizes the real estate cycle in the regulation of various countries with regard to the experience gained and lessons learned. Second, this paper, principal component analysis conducted on the mainland real estate cycle, factor analysis, and fitting the mainland real estate cycle index. Recognize the objective existence of mainland real estate cycle, one needs to answer in real property in the emergence and formation of the internal mechanism of cyclical fluctuations. Second, further analysis of the real estate cycle factors and decisive force. Thirdly, the VAR model using these factors on the price effect and the pulse generated by analysis of variance contribution, to deepen our understanding of the real estate cycle factors in the mainland’s understanding of academic research to make up for domestic-related weaknesses. Fourth, this use of SVAR models, prices and land on the mainland was the relationship between Granger causality test. Paper examines the continent between land and housing prices, in order to deny pioneering the "original sin of government" point of view.Since the 90s of the 20th century, the mainland real estate cycle generally consists of two stages of development:1990-1997 first-year real estate cycle fluctuations (of the transition period) and the second time since 1998 the real estate cycle (housing system reform to date). With the process of in-depth real estate market, real estate supply and demand issues such as conflicts and continue to highlight the real estate bubble, while the government was against the real estate market cycle, macro-economic control.The results show that the mainland needs to control the real estate industry, real estate market norms and housing security system of these three areas, adjust the government’s administrative intervention, improve the real estate market structure and resource allocation mechanisms can promote the health of the mainland property market development.更多还原