【作者】 杨永华；

【导师】 洗国明；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 世界经济， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,出口导向型经济发展战略的实施,使得中国的出口规模迅速扩张。中国出口总额的世界排名由1980年的第28位,上升至2007年的第2位,到2009年,中国超过德国成为了世界第一大出口国。中国的出口中制成品出口占了绝大部分的份额,且制成品出口的增长速度快于所有货物出口总额的增长速度。制成品是我国参与国际分割生产的主体,国际分割生产,即把产品的生产过程分割成不同的区段配置到不同国家和地区,已经成为影响我国制造业出口的重要因素。传统的国际贸易理论没有考虑国际分割生产现象,不能解释国际分割生产对出口贸易的影响。本文首先构建了一个南—北国际分割生产的模型,为分析国际分割生产影响出口贸易提供理论分析框架。另外,对中国出口贸易的相关经验研究主要从宏观层面进行,主要分析贸易总量增长的决定因素,很少具体到行业层面,也很少对中国的出口复杂度、出口的广化和深化等产品特征进行分析,还没有文献把国际分割生产与中国出口的产品特征相结合进行研究。为此,本文一方面运用传统的国际贸易理论和新贸易理论,把国际分割生产纳入分析框架；另一方面,本文选取出口比较优势、出口结构、出口复杂度、出口的广化和深化为反映制造业出口发展状况的指标,分析了国际分割生产现象对中国制造业出口比较优势和出口结构变化的影响；并重点就国际分割生产对中国制造业的出口复杂度、出口的广化和深化的影响进行了理论分析和经验分析。本文包括八个部分。导论指出本文的选题背景、意义、论文思路和结构安排以及创新之处。第一章简要介绍国际分割生产与贸易和出口发展的相关文献。第二章基于Dixit-Stiglitz (1977)的模型,把产品的生产过程分成不同区段并跨国配置,构建一个南—北国际分割生产的模型,分析国际分割生产对制造业出口贸易的影响。第三章在相关文献基础上,构建三类度量中国制造业国际分割生产程度的指标进行度量。第四章分析考虑国际分割生产与不考虑国际分割生产时,中国制造业出口比较优势和出口结构的变化。第五章首先构建指标度量中国制造业的出口复杂度,其次就国际分割生产对我国制造业出口复杂度的影响进行经验分析。第六章首先构建指标度量中国制造业出口的广化和出口的深化,其次就国际分割生产对我国制造业出口的广化和深化的影响进行计量分析。第七章总结本文的研究结论,并指出进一步研究的方向。本文得出如下主要结论。一、随着北方国家向南方国家分割生产,将会对南方的出口比较优势、出口结构、出口复杂度、出口的深化和广化产生影响。二、中国资本或技术密集型制造业的国际分割生产程度比较高,资源密集型行业的分割生产程度较低。中国制造业与北美、亚洲的分割生产程度最高,其次是与欧洲、拉美的分割生产程度,与非洲、大洋洲的分割生产程度最低。三、由于国际分割生产,中国制造业的出口比较优势明显增强,中国制造业出口结构改善程度也非常突出。但是,分离了国际分割生产引起的他国的贡献和含量后,中国制造业的出口比较优势和口结构改善程度并没有这么突出。四、中国制造业的出口复杂度呈上升趋势。随着我国科技投入的增加和我国通过FDI和加工贸易等方式参与国际分割生产的程度不断提高,促进了我国制造业出口复杂度的提高。五、中国制造业各行业出口市场份额的变化主要源于出口深化的贡献,出口广化的贡献很小。国际分割生产对不同要素密集型行业出口的深化与广化的影响存在差异。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform in 1978, as implement of Export Oriented strategy, China’s export achieved tremendous growth. As a result, the world ranking of China’s total exports raised from the 28th in 1980 to 2nd in 2007 and China has become the biggest export countries in the world in 2009. Manufactured goods export accounted for most of China’s export share, and it has growth faster than the total export. Manufactured goods is the main product that produced by international fragmentation of production in China. The international fragmentation of production, the production process of a product is fragmented into some segments and locate different countries and regions, has become an important factor in China’s manufacturing export.International fragmentation of production is ignored in Traditional International Trade Theory. So it cannot explain the influence of international fragmentation production on export trade. Therefore, this dissertation develops a South-North international fragmentation of production model, and provides a theoretical analysis framework to analyze the influence international fragmentation of production on manufacturing export. On the other hand, the related experience research about China’s export trade mainly from focus on the macro-level, which mainly analyzed the determinant factors of trade volume growth. Few studies involved industry level, and few studies analysis of the characteristics of China’s export products such as export sophistication, the intensive and extensive margin of export. No literature researched the relationship between the product features of China’s exports and international fragmentation of production. One hand, this dissertation uses the Traditional International Trade Theory and the New Trade Theory, and it adds the international fragmentation of production into the analysis framework; another hand, Select the comparative advantage indices and export structure index,export sophistication, the intensive and extensive margin of export as export development representative indexes, and analyses the influence of the international fragmentation of production on export comparative advantage and export structure. This dissertation analyses emphatically the relationship between the international fragmentation of production and China’s export sophistication, the intensive and extensive margin of China’s exports theoretically and empirically.This dissertation includes eight parts.Introduction explains the motif, structure and contributions of the study.Chapter 1 outlines the related literature about international fragmentation of production and trade, and about export development.Chapter 2 develops a South-North international fragmentation of production model based on Dixit-Stieglitz (1977) model, in which production activities are divided into different segments and spread over different countries, and analyzes the influence international fragmentation of production on manufacturing export.Chapter 3 Constructs three measure indexes of the international fragmentation production of the manufacturing based on related literature, and measures the international fragmentation production of China’s manufacturing.Chapter 4 Compares China’s comparative advantage and the structure of manufacturing export, with and without international fragmentation of production.Chapter 5 firstly constructs an index to measure China’s manufacturing export Sophistication, secondly analyzes the influence international fragmentation of production on manufacturing export Sophistication empirically.Chapter 6 firstly construct the index to decomposes the intensive and extensive margin of China’s manufacturing exports Chinese export, Secondly analyzes the influence international fragmentation of production on the intensive and extensive margin of China’s manufacturing exports empirically.Chapter 7 concludes the dissertation and points out the possible directions for further research.This dissertation arrives at the following major conclusions.First, as North country segments some fragments toward South country, it will affect the South country comparative advantage, export sophistication, the intensive and extensive margin of China’s manufacturing exports.Second, the degree of international fragmentation production of China’s capital or technology-intensive industry is high, and the degree of international fragmentation production of resource-intensive industry is low. The degree of international fragmentation production of manufacturing between China and North America, Asia is the highest, that between China and Europe, Latin American is in the intermediate level, that between China and Africa, Australia is the lowest.Third, when eliminate the effect of international fragmentation production, the comparative advantage of Chinese manufacturing decreases in general obviously, and China’s manufacturing export structure improvement is decreased too.Fourth, China’s manufacturing export sophistication shows ascendant trend. With the increase of investment in science and technology in China, and with China participate in international fragmentation production through FDI and processing trade more and more, China’s manufacturing export sophistication is improved.Fifth, the export shares of Chinese manufacturing industries export Change mainly comes from the contribution of intensive margin of export, the contribution of extensive margin of export is very small. The influence of international fragmentation production on the intensive and extensive margin of Chinese manufacturing export is different between resources or labor intensive industries and capital or tech-intensive industries.更多还原