【作者】 王贵荣；

【导师】 陈彤；

【作者基本信息】 新疆农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 奶业是一个由奶牛养殖户、原料奶的收购者、乳制品加工企业、乳品消费者、政府和行业协会等要素构成的一个有机系统,彼此之间存在着非常密切的经济联系,但作为独立的经营主体又存在着一定的利益冲突。本研究以产业组织理论、信息经济学、新制度经济学、产业链等相关理论为基础,运用产业组织分析方法(结构——行为——绩效的SCP分析范式)、计量经济学、博弈论和问卷调查方法等研究手段,围绕原料奶生产、乳品制造和乳品消费这三个主要环节,对新疆奶业的发展现状进行了客观描述,对原料奶生产结构、乳品制造业市场结构、乳品消费结构及其各自的运行绩效进行了系统分析,对影响绩效的主要因素进行了分析评价,对乳品制造业市场行为、乳制品消费者行为,特别是乳品产业链纵向组织关系和各利益主体之间的竞争行为进行了深入研究,力求准确揭示新疆奶业发展的内在规律和发展趋势,提出规制各利益主体行为的有效途径,探索促进新疆奶业发展的相关建议,推动新疆奶业的持续健康发展。本研究的主要结论如下:(1)新疆是我国主要的原料奶生产基地,具有奶牛养殖的比较成本优势。原料奶生产的主要模式是农户散养,奶牛单产低于全国平均水平,而良种奶牛比例较低是影响奶牛单产水平最主要的因素;奶牛饲养在地理分布上的非均衡性导致了原料奶生产和乳品加工企业布局的区域不平衡性。(2)新疆乳品制造业的产业集中度偏低,总体刚刚越过竞争型的市场结构,但在局部市场呈现一两家企业为主导的寡占型市场结构。随着奶源、规模经济效应等壁垒的存在,行业的进入壁垒正在逐渐提高,新企业进入将会越来越困难。(3)市场结构和产权结构的共同作用,推动新疆乳品制造业经营业绩的提高。市场集中度比销售增长率对绩效的影响更大,但乳品制造业的盈利能力低于全部工业行业的平均水平;乳制品行业仍以外延型的扩大企业生产规模为主,产品同质化现象严重;新疆乳制品企业的技术效率明显低于全国水平。(4)目前,新疆乳制品企业的技术创新能力还不强。企业更多是将注意力放在消费者品牌忠诚的培育和市场份额的争夺上;价格竞争和广告、并购等非价格竞争行为加快了乳制品行业的优胜劣汰,有利于形成以寡头为主导、大中小企业共生的相对稳定的新的产业组织结构。(5)新疆具有乳制品消费的传统习惯,但总体消费水平还不高。城乡之间、南北疆之间消费还不平衡;消费者选购乳制品有明显的消费倾向,不同性别、年龄、民族、职业和文化程度的消费者其乳制品消费行为存在一定差异;收入水平和消费习惯是影响乳制品消费最主要和最直接的因素。(6)新疆在奶业产业化发展中主要出现了龙头企业带动型、中介组织联动型、龙头企业带动的准合作社一体化型和完全一体化型等四种纵向组织关系模式。目前,分散饲养、分散挤奶、奶站集中收购牛奶是新疆原料奶生产的主要方式,多数乳制品加工企业采用两种以上的混合型奶源供应模式,奶源供应还不稳定。(7)合作社一体化是乳品产业链演进发展的理想模式。从制度设计角度分析,建立“合作社参股的企业+奶农合作社+农户”的纵向组织关系,逐步走向合作社一体化的纵向组织关系是最优的乳品产业链纵向组织模式;从制度演化进程来看,应当加快改造传统的农户散养模式,大力发展公司+规模化牧场模式,鼓励并提倡发展合作社一体化和农工商综合体这一理想模式。更多还原

【Abstract】 Dairy industry is an organic system, composed of the elements, such as dairy farmers, buyers of raw milk, processing enterprises for dairy products, dairy consumers, governments and trade associations. There is a very close economic connection among them, but there is some conflict of interest due to it is as an independent stakeholder.Based on the relevant theory, such as industrial organization, information economics, new institutional economics and industrial chain and so on, this paper gives an objective description for three key links, including production of raw milk, dairy processing and dairy consumption, in relation to the development status of dairy industry in Xinjiang of China, using the research methods, such as the analytical methods of industrial organization (structure - conduct - performance analysis of SCP paradigm), econometrics, game theory and questionnaire, etc. This paper conducts a system analysis on the consumption structure of the dairy, market structure of dairy manufacturing industry, production structure of raw milk and their respective operational performance, carries out an analysis and evaluation for the main factors effecting the performance, conducts an in-depth study on the consumer conduct for dairy products, market conduct of dairy manufacturing, especially the vertical organizational relationships to dairy industry chain and competitive conduct between the various stakeholders, in order to try to reveal accurately the inherent law and trends of dairy industry development in Xinjiang, explore the effective ways regulating conduct of each stakeholder, put forward some suggestions contributing to dairy industry development in Xinjiang to promote the sustained and healthy development of dairy industry in Xinjiang. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Xinjiang is China’s major production base of raw milk, with a comparative cost advantage in dairy farming. The main mode of production of raw milk is free-range farmers, dairy yield is lower than the national average, while the low percentage of fine dairy cows is the most important factor to affect yield per unit from dairy cows; the non-equilibrium of feeding for dairy cows in the geographical distribution has led to the regional imbalance in the layout of production of raw milk and dairy processing enterprises.(2)The concentration of dairy manufacturing industry in Xinjiang is low, its overall level is just over the competition-based market structure, but it presents an oligopoly market structure in local market, namely, dominated by one or two companies. With the existence of barriers, such as milk source, effect of economies of scale, the industry’s entry barriers are gradually raised and the new enterprises will be increasingly difficult to enter.(3)Under the combined action of market structure and ownership structure, the operating performance of dairy industry in Xinjiang has been improved, the market concentration is a greater impact on performance than sales growth, but the profitability of dairy manufacturing industries is lower than the average of all industries; dairy industry is mainly relying on expanding the extension of the scale of production-oriented enterprises, phenomenon of homogeneous products is serious; the technical efficiency of dairy companies in Xinjiang is significantly lower than the national average.(4)At present, the technological innovation capability of dairy enterprises in Xinjiang is not strong, companies more often focus on the cultivation of consumer brand loyalty and the contend for market share; the price competition and the non-price competitive behaviors such as advertising, mergers and acquisitions, have accelerated survival of the fittest for dairy products industry, are conducive to form a relatively stable and new industrial organizational structure, which is led by oligarchy, and being coexisted medium and small enterprises.(5)There is a tradition of dairy consumption in Xinjiang, but the overall level of consumption is not high. There is a consumptive imbalance between urban and rural areas, northern and southern Xinjiang; there is a clear propensity to consume by consumers to choose dairy products, a difference between consumers with different gender, age, nationality, occupation and education level; both of income level and consumption habits are the most important and most direct factors to affect the consumption of dairy products.(6)There is four kinds of patterns of vertical-type organization relations in the development of dairy industry in Xinjiang, that is, the driven type of leading enterprises, linkage-based intermediary organizations, integration type of quasi-cooperatives driven by leading enterprises, and full integration type. At present, the principal means of production for raw milk in Xinjiang include the scattered feeding, decentralized milking and the acquisition of raw milk from milk stations, most dairy processing enterprises adopt two or more modes of supply of milk, milk supply is not stable.(7)Cooperative integration is an ideal mode in the development of dairy industry chain. From the perspective of system design, the best vertical organization mode for dairy industry chain is from the establishment of vertical organizational relationships of " the enterprise shared by cooperatives + cooperatives composed by farmers + farmers" to vertical organizational relationships of cooperation integration; from the process of system evolution, the traditional free-range model by farmers should be accelerate to change, the model of“company + ranch”should be energetically developed, and the ideal model, which is the cooperative integration and agribusiness should be encouraged and promoted.更多还原