【作者】 丁胜；

【导师】 王光伟；

【作者基本信息】 苏州大学 ， 金融学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 由于在制定和实施货币政策时如果缺乏考虑不同产权、不同行业、不同区域的微观经济体对货币政策反应存在的较大差距,将会造成“一刀切”的货币政策对部分产业、行业产生较大的冲击作用,从而降低货币政策效率,最终影响货币政策的效果。制造业作为中国经济发展的引擎,是国民经济支柱产业,但是作为主要经济调控手段被越来越频繁运用于宏观调控的货币政策却与之时有摩擦。制造业与货币政策的摩擦既体现了整体经济对货币政策的反映,也表现出制造业货币政策效应的特殊性。于是,如何减少货币政策实施过程中与产业所产生的摩擦引起人们越来越多的关注。本论文旨在通过系统地研究货币政策实施对制造业产生影响的过程,揭示导致货币政策实施与产业两者产生摩擦的体制和制度原因,并提出相关建议。本论文研究方法既包括规范研究也包括实证研究,并试图通过实证研究验证理论假设。总体研究思路是:从考察、检验现象入手,然后分析、揭示与研究对象相关的各因素间的内在关系,最后得出结果并提出相关建议。首先,利用统计数据和计量软件分析、检验不同经济阶段货币政策对制造业所产生的政策效应;随后,进一步考察货币政策对制造业内不同行业所产生的非对称效应,以及对制造业和其他产业所产生的不同的政策效应;然后,从二元结构、货币政策以及制造业本身等方面寻找货币政策效应的内在和外在原因,找出货币政策效应形成机制;最后,总结并就相关问题提出本文建议。从选题方面看,本文在于系统研究货币政策对制造业所产生的政策效应及其形成原因,以及探讨相应的改善措施。从现有文献资料看应属全新课题。从研究角度看,以行业冷热差别、所有制差别等因素所形成的多种二元制经济结构的研究角度出发,多方位、多阶段、多层次分析制造业货币政策的非对称效应的成因及其形成机制,与其他研究在角度上不雷同。总之,在阅读了大量文献的基础上,本文的研究向前迈出了微小的一步。货币政策效应是一个较为复杂的研究领域,由于本人的知识积累以及研究能力的局限,在文章中可能提出的问题远比要解决的问题多,并且由于此课题涉及面较广,对部分问题的分析可能缺乏深度、缜密。文中提出的若干观点也可能由于分析缺乏周密以至于存在不妥,甚至错误。此外,论文形成过程中面临的最大困难是相关资料和数据的收集,由于目前对此课题的研究积累较少,从而增加了相关资料和数据收集的难度。尽管文中可能存在诸多问题和不足,但是不能据此否定此课题的研究意义和价值。无论是文中的些许合理分析,还是因此文而来的“抛砖引玉”,未尝不是以后研究的一个有益开端。本文也是以后继续研究其他产业货币政策的基础和开端。更多还原

【Abstract】 The researching methods are used in this thesis are normative and empirical. Through the empirical researching method, the thesis gets the conclusion that without considering the reality of different property and industry division and the micro economy of different region, the one-size-fits-all kind of monetary policy has negative effect on partial industry division, and has low policy efficiency and the policy result is not good. The manufacturing industry is the engine of China’s economic development and the cornerstone of national economy, though as one of the most important macro economy controlling method, the monetary policy sometimes does not fits for the development of it. Now, more attentions are paid to how to reducing the friction between the monetary policy and manufacturing industry. This thesis aims to study the effect of monetary policy on manufacturing industry systematically, and reveal the internal reason causing the friction between the monetary policy and manufacturing industry, then give the solutions to the problems.Theoretical assumptions. General idea of thesis is from investigating and testing the phenomenon to analyze and reveal of the inner relationship between the various factors of the study, and then draw the conclusion and give the related suggestion. Firstly, statistical data and software are used to analyze the effect of the monetary policy on the manufacturing industry during different economy stage, then try give related solutions to the problems. Secondly, further study is done on how the monetary policy affects manufacturing industry and other industry as well as different manufacturing division asymmetrically. Thirdly, from the aspects of the dual economy structure and manufacturing industry, the internal and external causes are studied on the effects of monetary policy. Finally, conclusions are drawn and related suggestions are given.The topic of this study is complete new, because the thesis studies the effect and the reason of the monetary policy on manufacturing industry and presents the related solution to the problems. From the perspective of research, this study is different from other studies, because this study analyzes the effect of monetary policy on manufacturing industry from the aspects of ownership and the dual economy structure. Anyhow, on the basis of other research, the study makes a small step forward.Because of the complexity the process of monetary effect and the limitation of my ability, there are some questions can not be solved fully and deeply, some ideas are not fully considered and even error. In addition, the greatest difficulty faced in the study is lack of relevant consulting material and data, for there is very few studies on this aspect.Although there may exist problems and insufficiency, the study is meaning and value, for there are many reasonable analysis in the thesis and lay sound foundation for further study.更多还原