【作者】 李亚军；

【导师】 杨忠振；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 航运中心建设以涉港行业为中心,通过经济系统中行业间的供需联系,传导给其它行业,从而对整个地区的经济发展产生影响。而投入产出方法反映了经济系统各产业间的投入与产出的数量供需关系,可以有效地用于分析航运中心建设中涉港行业与其他行业之间的相互作用效果,因此,为更好地认识航运中心建设发展规律,本文采用投入产出方法研究大连国际航运中心建设中涉港行业资金投入分配方式和产出效果。首先,文章基于辽宁投入产出表,依据各产业与港口业务之间的相关性及产业之间的相互依存关系,采用多目标模糊聚类方法对该表进行整理分析,得到以涉港行业和非涉港行业为大类的投入产出表,进而结合线性规划方法,对航运中心建设的投入分配方式进行优化,并对其产出效果进行分析。其次,采用模糊粗糙集就各行业的污染物排放和能源消耗情况进行综合评价,在此基础上建立双层规划模型,研究环境约束下的航运中心建设投入分配和产出效果。最后,文章通过动态逆矩阵的计算,分析行业间在设定的5年规划期内具有的动态投入产出关系,进而采用动态规划模型对航运中心建设的投入分配与产出效果进行研究。研究结果表明,行业间的投入与产出效果存在着数量的不平衡性和时间的不平衡性。对航运中心的建设要充分考虑行业间的互相联系,通过产业投入的优化配置和发展时序上的优化安排,将外在的投入与行业内部的联动规律有机地结合起来,在实现航运中心建设的同时,实现行业间的均衡发展。另外,考虑环境影响因素的分析结果说明,航运中心建设中可以通过行业间的资源合理配置,实现生态环境与航运中心建设的协调发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 The port-related industries achieve more inputs when the shipping center are built, and the development of the port-related industries will conduct to the others by the relationship of supply-demand and result in the development of regional economies. The input-output(I-O) table describes the supply-demand relationship among the industries in the economic system and can be used to analyse the interaction among the industries. This paper analyse mainly the input optimization of capital and effects in construction of Dalian international shipping center with the I-0 methods.Firstly, based on the I-0 table in Liaoning, the paper applies multi-objects fuzzy clustering to build the new I-0 table with two parts:the port-related industries and the port-unrelated industries. Then with linear palnning mothed, the input distributive modes are optimized and the output effects are researched. Secondly, the paper evaluates the emission of the pollutant and the consumption of the energy of the industries with fuzzy rough sets, and built the double-layers planning model to study the input modes to industries and the output effects considering the environmental factors. Third, the dynamic inverse matrix is calculated and the dynamic I-0 relations among the industries during the five years are researched. At last the paper employs the dynamic palnning mode to analyse the input distribution to industries and the output effects.The results show that the amount imbalance and the time imbalance consist in the input to industries and the ouput from industries. To the construction of Dalian international shipping center, the relation of industries must be considerd. Through the optimal distribution of the input to industries and the optimal plan of the orders of industrial development, the linkage rule of the outer input and the interaction among the industries can be combined effectively, the object of shipping center and the balanced development in the industries woud be realized at the same time. Otherwise, the research indicate that during the construction of Dalian shipping center, the influence to environment can be alleviated through the rational distribution of the input among the industries更多还原