【作者】 韩晓明；

【导师】 范德成；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工程大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国“走出去”战略的进一步发展,我国商业银行也随之“走出去”,跨国并购成为我国商业银行实现“走出去”战略的重要组成部分。商业银行跨国并购是一个复杂的系统工程,其面临的风险与不确定性远大于在国内实施并购。论文主要分析了商业银行跨国并购中不同阶段的风险,构建了不同阶段风险的识别和测度方法及模型,最终建立了商业银行跨国并购的风险识别评价体系,并针对商业银行跨国并购的风险类型和程度提出了风险控制策略。论文主要包括以下研究内容：论文首先回顾了商业银行跨国并购的相关研究,提出了论文的内容和研究方法。针对商业银行跨国并购的过程,论文从时间轴上对商业银行跨国并购的风险进行分析,提出了跨国并购前,并购期间及并购后的主要风险类型及特点,并基于风险之间的相互关系构建了商业银行跨国并购的结构模型和系统模型。根据商业银行跨国并购的各个阶段,论文针对各阶段的风险进行了具体的分析和研究。针对并购前期的目标区域选择风险,系统分析了其构成及原因,构建了风险测度的评价指标体系,根据风险的模糊特征建立了基于信息熵的目标区域选择风险的模糊测度模型；针对并购期间的价值评估风险,根据过程不对称理论和信息不对称理论对风险成因进行了分析,并构建了基于风险贴现系数的价值评估模型和基于在险成本的价值评估风险测度模型,同时基于信息不对称理论提出了价值评价风险控制的措施及建议；针对商业银行跨国并购期后的主要风险类型——整合风险,系统分析了其构成及原因,设计了基于专家评判的指标体系并构建了整合风险度量的专家评价模型。综合商业银行跨国并购各阶段风险分析的结果,论文设计了商业银行跨国并购风险的综合评价指标体系,构建了基于层次分析法和模糊综合评价方法的商业银行跨国并购风险测度模型。最后,论文以2007年中国工商银行并购非洲标准银行为实例,进行了实证研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the further development of the "going out" strategy, the Commercial Bank will also "go out", so the cross-border M & A will be an important element for the "going out" strategy of the commercial banks. The cross-border M & A of the commercial banks is a complex and systematic project, which will be confronted with much more risks and uncertainties than the implementation of the domestic M & A. This paper researches mainly the risk in each aspect of the cross-border M & A of the commercial banks, and proposes the methods and models to identify and Measure these risks. Finally, it builds the risk identification evaluation system, as well as makes the strategy to control the risks for the type and extent of the cross-border M & A of the commercial banks. The mainly contents and the research results are follows:First, this author recalls the theory of risk management, as well as focuses on analyzing and contrasting the theory which will be used in this paper. And this paper proposes the main contents and research methods.Second, according to the process divisions of the cross-border M & A of the commercial banks, this paper analyzes the risks from the timeline. Then it proposes the types and characteristics of the main risks which may exist before, during and after the cross-border M & A. And based on the relationship among the risks, it builds the structure model and system model of the cross-border M & A of the commercial banks.Then, this paper does specific analyses on risk during various stages. Firstly, according to the risk of pre-selected target area, this paper analyzes its composition and the reasons, and conducts an evaluation index system which can measure the risk and a measurement model which is combined with quantitative and qualitative method, and then proposes a fuzzy measurement model to the risk of the target area selecting based on information entropy according to the fuzzy character of risk; Secondly, according to Asymmetric process and Asymmetric information,this paper analyzes the cause of risk during M&A times, and conducts a valuation model based on risk discount factor, proposes a risk measurement model based on a new concept—Cost at Risk (CaR). At the same time, based on Asymmetric information, it proposes some suggestions which can control this kind of risk. Thirdly, Integration risk is the main risk after M&A. Against this risk, it Analyzes its composition and the reasons. It also designs an index system based on experts’judgments and conducts an expert evaluation model about integrated risk measurement.Based on the results of valorous risk analysis, this paper designs an synthesized evaluation index system, and based on AHP and Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, it conducts a model which can measure the risk in M&A of commercial bankIn 2007, ICBC merged and acquainted Standard Bank of Africa. Finally,it dose an empirical research on this.更多还原