【摘要】 黄河三角洲是山东省乃至全国重要的土地增长区和耕地资源储备区,耕地是研究区最重要的景观类型之一。通过Landsat TM/OLI遥感影像解译,获取黄河三角洲1986、1992、1998、2004、2010和2016年6个时期用地类型分布,使用轨迹分析法分析耕地轨迹的时空变化。借助斑块占景观面积比例指数(PLAND)、散布与并列指数(IJI)、面积加权平均斑块分维指数(FREAC-AM),分析不同耕地转化类型的景观格局。选择自然环境、社会经济和区位因素3大类共13个影响因子,利用Logistic回归模型对耕地转化进行驱动力分析。结果表明:①1986—2004年黄河三角洲耕地面积由1 390. 16 km~2,增长至2 184 km~2,2016年减少至2 138. 88 km~2,1986—2016年间研究区耕地和耕地占三角洲总面积比例呈先增长后下降趋势。30年间未利用地向耕地转入322. 46 km~2,是耕地增加的主要来源,耕地向建设用地输出107. 82 km~2,是耕地转出的主要去向。恒定非耕地主要分布在河口区和垦利区,间歇性耕地主要分布在河口区,转入耕地主要分布在垦利区,恒定耕地与转出耕地在各县区均有分布。②耕地是黄河三角洲最重要的景观类型之一,耕地轨迹占研究区总面积的62. 75%。间歇性耕地和恒定耕地的IJI指数分别为89. 84%和78. 20%,表明间歇性耕地和恒定耕地周边的耕地变化复杂,相邻景观类型最多。同时,间歇性耕地FREAC-AM指数为1. 22,还是研究区耕地转化轨迹中形状最复杂的类型。③Logistic分析表明,地理区位是黄河三角洲耕地转化的主要驱动因素,距海岸线距离(贡献率1 832. 730)、距黄河距离(贡献率589. 109)、人口密度差(贡献率408. 403)、距乡镇距离(贡献率398. 933)是耕地转入的主要驱动因子。距海岸线距离(贡献率1 914. 205)、距乡镇距离(贡献率763. 96)、距黄河距离(贡献率142. 210)是耕地转出的主要驱动因子。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Yellow River Delta is a vital area of land growth and cultivated land reserve in Shandong Province and even in China.Cultivated land is one of the most important landscape types in study area. By interpreting Landsat TM/OLI images,the land use/cover information of the Yellow River Delta in 1986,1992,1998,2004,2010 and 2016 was extracted. The trajectory analysis method was used to analyze the temporal and spatial variation of cultivated land trajectory. Index( PLAND),Dispersion and Parallel Index( IJI),Area Weighted Average Patch Fractal Dimension Index( FREAC-AM) were used to analyze the landscape pattern of different types of cultivated land conversion. 13 factors were selected from three categories: natural environment,socio-economic and location factors and logistic regression model was used to analyze the driving force of cultivated land conversion. The results showed that: ①The cultivated land increased from 1 390. 16 km~2 to 2 184 km~2 from 1986 to 2004. However,the area decreased to 2 138. 88 km~2 in 2016. Thus,the cultivated land and its ratio of the whole delta showed a trend of increase in 1986 to 2004,and decreased from 2004 to 2016. Over the past 30 years,322. 46 km~2 unutilized land was transferred to the cultivated land,which was the main source of the increased cultivated land. The cultivated land of 107. 82 km~2 changed to construction land was the main source. The constant non-cultivated land was mainly distributed in Hekou and Kenli Districts. The intermittent cultivated land was mainly distributed in Hekou District. The converted cultivated land was mainly distributed in Kenli District. The constant cultivated land and the transferred cultivated land were distributed in all counties and districts. ②Cultivated land was one of the most important types of landscapes in the Yellow River Delta.The cultivated land trajectory accounted for 62. 75% of the study area. The IJI indexes of intermittent cultivated land and constant cultivated land were 89. 84% and 78. 20% respectively,indicating that the cultivated land around intermittent cultivated land and constant cultivated land was complex,and the adjacent landscape types were the most. At the same time,the FREAC-AM index of intermittent arable land was 1. 22,which was the most complex type of arable land conversion trajectory in the study area. ③Logistic analysis showed that the geographical location was the main driving factor for the conversion of cultivated land in the Yellow River Delta. The main driving factors for the conversion of cultivated land were distance from the coastline( contribution rate 1 832. 730),distance from the Yellow River( contribution rate 589. 109),population density difference( contribution rate 408. 403),and distance from township( contribution rate 398. 933). Distance from the coastline( contribution rate 1 914. 205),distance from township( contribution rate 763. 96),distance from the Yellow River( contribution rate 142. 210) were the main driving factors for the conversion of cultivated land.更多还原