【摘要】 建设用地作为最大的碳源用地类型,碳排放贡献率显著,因此,低碳调控是实现建设用地减量化的有效手段。已有研究多是通过优化土地利用结构、控制建设用地扩展来实现碳减排效果,而当中国政府做出2030年左右达到CO2排放峰值的承诺后,首先需要解决的是碳排放的达峰问题。因此,本文通过构建与修正Kaya恒等式、回归拟合、灰色预测等方法,在合肥市建设用地碳排放峰值预测的基础上,对该峰值管控下的建设用地扩展进行研究。得到以下结论:①提出了碳排放峰值对建设用地管控的研究思路与框架,认为基于碳排放峰值的科学预测,可以有效地控制建设用地扩展,并引导土地利用结构调整。②GDP、人口与建设用地、碳排放的关系密切,按照人均GDP高、中、低值三种情景的设定,认为中值情景更符合合肥市"十二五"以来的发展状况,即合肥市将在2030年达到CO2排放峰值1 862. 54万t,此后开始逐渐降低。③建设用地扩展与碳排放之间具有强相关性,根据中值情景下合肥市的CO2排放峰值预测结果,合肥市建设用地将在2030年达到最高值10. 81万hm~2,此后开始逐渐减少。最后,提出两点讨论:①对于模型构建、因素分解等方面可进一步深入研究,从而为决策、规划提供更全面的依据。②展望未来,"退建还耕"应当是中国城市精明增长的路径之一,城市周边建设用地复垦将是城镇建设用地整治的重要工作内容。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the largest type of carbon-source land,construction land has a particularly significant contribution rate for carbon emission. It can be seen that low-carbon regulation is an effective means to realize the reduction of construction land. Most of the existing studies have achieved the carbon emission reduction effect by optimizing the land use structure and controlling the expansion of construction land. However,after Chinese government has made a commitment to reach the peak of CO2 emission around 2030,the first thing to be solved is to predict the peak of carbon emission. Therefore,by constructing and revising the Kaya identity,regression fitting,grey prediction and other methods,this paper first predicted carbon emission peak of construction land,then further studied the expansion scale of construction land under the peak in Hefei City. The results show that: ①It constructs a research framework on the control of construction land by carbon emission peak. Based on scientific prediction of carbon emission peak,it can effectively control the expansion of construction land and guide the adjustment of land use structure. ②GDP,population and construction land,carbon emissions are closely related. Due to the setting of the three scenarios of high,medium and low per capita GDP,the median scenario is more consistent with the development situation of Hefei,that is,Hefei will reach the peak of carbon emission of 18,625,400 tons in2030,and it will gradually decrease thereafter. ③There is a strong correlation between the expansion of construction land and carbon emissions. In view of the prediction results of carbon emission peak,construction land in Hefei will peak at 108,100 hm~2 in 2030,and it will gradually decrease thereafter. Finally,two points of discussion are proposed: ①Further research can be carried out on model construction,factor decomposition and so on,to provide more comprehensive basis for decision-making and planning. ② Looking forward to the future,it is proposed that‘withdrawing construction and returning cultivation’should be one of the smart ways of urban growth in China,and the reclamation of construction land around the city will be an important work content of urban construction land renovation.更多还原