【摘要】 利用1970—2016年锡林河流域4个国家气象站台的冬季降水资料,计算了流域的降雪集中度(PCD)、集中期(PCP),并采用线性趋势分析、Morlet小波、Mann-Kendall突变分析及R/S分析等方法,研究了流域近50年降雪集中度、集中期的变化特征。结果表明:锡林浩特站降雪较为集中,而阿巴嘎旗站降雪最不集中。流域降雪南部较北部更加集中,集中度增减趋势则呈东增西减之势;流域大部分站点都存在12月上旬这一个共同的集中期,集中期偏早年较多。集中度存在以25 a左右为主的周期变化,在此周期内降雪会经历集中—不集中—集中的交替变化,集中期的变化以24 a为主周期,在主周期内存在早—晚—早交替变化,且2016年以后集中期仍处在偏早期。流域各站的集中度在未来年变化趋势均表现为反持续性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The snowfall concentration(PCD), concentration period(PCP) of the basin was calculated by using the winter precipitation data of four national meteorological stations in the Xilin River Basin from 1970 to 2016, and linear trend analysis, Morlet wavelet, Mann-Kendall mutation analysis and R/S analysis methods were used to study the variation characteristics of snowfall concentration and concentration period in the basin over the past 50 years. The results showed that the snowfall at Xilinhot Station was relatively concentrated, while the snowfall at Abaqi Banner was the least concentrated, the southern part of the basin was more concentrated than the north, and the trend of increasing or decreasing concentration was increasing eastward and westward. Snowfalls in most of the stations in the basin had a common concentration period in early December, and the concentration period was more early in the early years. There is a cyclical change with concentration of about 25-year period. During this period, snowfall underwent alternating-concentration-concentration alternating changes. The concentration period changed with 24-year period as the main cycle, and there was early-late-early alternation in the main cycle. Changes and the concentration period after 2016 will be still in the early stages. The snowfall concentration of stations in the basin will be anti-sustainability in the future.更多还原