【摘要】 堆积层滑坡变形演化与降雨关系密切,为研究降雨条件下堆积层滑坡变形演化规律及发展趋势,开展了周期降雨条件下堆积层滑坡模型试验,深入分析堆积层滑坡位移变化特征及其与降雨之间的响应关系,并以此为依据,运用位移时间序列进化-支持向量机方法,建立降雨因子与位移时序趋势项之间的学习预测模型,并通过Matlab编程求解。结果表明,在周期间断性降雨作用下,堆积层滑坡位移响应具有显著的跃阶性和滞后性,建立的周期降雨影响因子与周期项位移之间的预测模型是必要且有效的,模型能产生较符合实际的位移响应趋势。研究成果可为降雨条件下堆积层滑坡位移预测提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 There is a close relationship between rainfall and evolution of accumulative landslide deformation.In order to study the evolution and development of accumulative landslide deformation under rainfall conditions,the impacts of rainfall on the displacement of accumulative landslide were deeply analyzed.Model test of accumulative landslide under the condition of periodic rainfall was adopted,demonstrating the focused displacement-rainfall effects.The predictive mathematical model of rainfall factor versus displacement-time trend term was established with the method of Support Vectors Machine(SVM)and displacement time series.Eventually,Matlab was used to solve the predictive model.The results show that under the periodic rainfall conditions,the impacts of obvious higher-order effect and hysteresis on the accumulative landslide displacement are discovered.It is necessary to establish such a mathematical model.The model can get a more realistic displacement trend.The research results can provide reference for the prediction of accumulative landslide deformation under rainfall conditions.更多还原