【摘要】 根据2005—2017年卫星遥感反演的太湖蓝藻水华信息,利用区域气象观测数据分析各类气象因子对太湖蓝藻深水华形成的影响,结果表明:①在日平均气温为0～35℃区间内会出现蓝藻聚集现象,其中最适宜气温区间为15.1～35℃,该区间内累计出现蓝藻水华的面积占比达90%、出现大面积蓝藻水华占比达93%;②在卫星观测到蓝藻前6h,平均风速为0.2～4.8m/s区间内能观测到蓝藻水华,其中最适宜的平均风速区间为0.5～3.4m/s,该区间内蓝藻水华累计出现次数占比达94.7%,大面积蓝藻水华主要出现在平均风速<2.0m/s的情况下,占比89%;③降水总体上呈负效应,但在观测到有大面积蓝藻水华的情况下,前24h有小雨(<10mm)的情形与总降水次数之比达88%,说明小雨的适度扰动有利于形成大面积蓝藻水华;④日照充足有利于蓝藻生长,但并非蓝藻水华形成的必要条件。在此基础上建立的多元回归综合气象指数模型,拟合结果较好,通过了0.001的显著性检验。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the information of cyanobacteria bloom on the Taihu Lake retrieved from satellite remote sensing from 2005 to 2017 and the regional meteorological observation data,it is shown that the Taihu Lake cyanobacteria bloom occurred in the daily average temperature range of 0 to 35 ℃,with the high-incidence interval being 15.1 to 35℃,within which the bloom cyanobacterial area accounts for 90%,and the large-scale cyanobacterial bloom(the area of a single cyanobacteria bloom event exceeds 20%of the surface area of the Taihu Lake,468 km~2)accounts for 93%.Within 6 hours before the satellite passing,in the average wind speed being 0.2 to 4.8 m/s,the cyanobacterial bloom can be observed,with the most suitable wind speed range being 0.5 to 3.4 m/s,within which the occurrence number of cyanobacterial bloom accounts for 94.7%.The large-scale cyanobacterial bloom mainly occurred when the average wind speed was 0 to 2.0 m/s,accounting for 89%.The wind direction mainly affects the movement and spatial distribution of cyanobacterial bloom.Precipitation generally has a negative impact on the occurrence and development of cyanobacterial bloom.While there occurred was large-area cyanobacteria bloom,the situation that there was small precipitation(<10 mm)in the first 24 hours accounts for 88%,indicating that the moderate disturbance of light rainfall is conducive to the formation of large-areas cyanobacteria blooms.Sufficient sunshine may be one of the conditions for cyanobacterial bloom,but not a necessary condition.On the basis of this,a multivariate regression comprehensive meteorological index model is established,and the fitting result is good,passed the 0.001-level significance test.更多还原