【摘要】 随着全球气候变化,自然灾害加剧的趋势。我国南部沿海城市的近海和海岸工程越来越受到台风、洪水、巨风和强降雨等极端因素的影响。本文基于多维复合极值分布理论分析在我国南海海岸带地区的台风诱发巨浪、风暴潮及相应的天文潮等致灾因素的联合频率,同时引入整体不确定性理论分析法(GUA),对各种统计理论,取样方法的计算结果进行合理的不确性评估。本文实例计算了中国南海海域海洋平台的甲板高程,与传统方法相比,该种概率预测的方法显示出合理性和安全性。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the increasing tendency of natural hazards,the typhoon,hurricane and tropical cyclone induced surge,wave,precipitation,flood and wind as extreme external loads are menacing the coastal provinces of China.Facing to the increasing tendency of extreme sea hazards′intensity and disasters′losses,this paper discusses the joint probability analysis of simultaneous occurrence of typhoon induced extreme external hazards at the costal areas of South China Sea based on the multivariate compound extreme value distribution model.By global uncertainty analysis,all the main uncertainty factors are taken into account,including environmental loads,sampling method and statistics uncertainty.In this paper,the deck elevation of the platform is analyzed and predicted by using this model.Compared with the traditional design codes,the prediction sufficiently demonstrates the new method′s rationality and security.更多还原