【摘要】 碳补偿是全球气候变暖和低碳发展背景下产生的生态补偿研究新领域。本文基于足迹理论,提出理论碳赤字的概念,对地区间碳补偿费用的核算方法进行了改进,并采用灰色预测模型GM (1,1)预测了2017—2026年东北三省地区间碳补偿费用。研究结果表明:2003—2016年,东北三省的碳排放量总体呈上升趋势,但增速有所放缓,减排工作初见成效;东北三省各省份的碳吸收量呈稳步上升状态,环境保护工作持续推进。2017—2026年东北三省各省份的实际碳赤字均为正值,但实际碳赤字增长速度均呈下降趋势,整个生态环境朝着良性状态发展;东北三省中,辽宁省为绝对碳补偿主体,吉林省和黑龙江省为绝对碳受偿主体,大体上为经济发展水平较高地区补偿经济发展水平较低地区,符合区域协调发展的理念。本文的研究结果能够为东北三省建立和完善地区间碳补偿机制,测算碳补偿费用提供合理参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Carbon compensation is a new field of ecological compensation research under the background of global warming and low carbon development. Based on the footprint theory,this paper puts forward the concept of theoretical carbon deficit,improves the accounting method of carbon compensation cost among regions,and forecasts the carbon compensation cost of northeast three provinces from 2017 to 2026 using the grey prediction model GM(1,1). The results show that: first,from 2003 to 2016,the carbon emissions of the three provinces in northeast China showed an upward trend on the whole,but the rate of increase slowed down. Second,from 2003 to 2016,the carbon absorption of the three provinces in northeast China showed a steady increase,and the environmental protection work continued to advance. Thirdly,from 2017 to 2016,the actual carbon deficit of the three provinces in northeast China was positive,but the growth rate of the actual carbon deficit of the provinces was decreasing,and the whole ecological environment was developing towards a benign state. Fourth,among the three northeastern provinces,Liaoning is the subject of carbon compensation,Jilin and Heilongjiang is the recipient of carbon compensation,and it is generally the region with higher level of economic development to compensate the region with lower level of economic development,which is consistent with the concept of regional coordinated development. The research results in this paper can provide a reasonable reference for the establishment and improvement of interregional carbon compensation mechanism and the calculation of carbon compensation cost in the three northeastern provinces.更多还原