【作者】 马亮；

【导师】 马淑琴；

【作者基本信息】 浙江工商大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 产业转型升级是我国“十二五”规划的重点问题。现阶段我国主要产业类型集中在第二产业,且劳动资源密集型产业占较大比重,位于全球价值链(GVC)的低端。根据我们前期研究结果显示,出口产品技术含量提升稳健地促进产业的转型升级,与此同时,带动了劳动力在产业间和区域间的流动。那么,出口品技术含量的提升与产业升级之间的关联机制如何?这可以得到理论关联与我国现实的论证。研究我国出口品技术含量提升与产业升级的关联机制具有重要的理论与政策含义。本文基于新经济地理学理论,对cp模型进行拓展,从理论上研究出口品技术含量与产业转型升级之间的关系。理论分析表明出口品技术含量变动会引起工人工资变化,从而引致劳动力流动,进而形成产业集聚,最终助推产业转型升级。本文将深入讨论我国东中西部各省产业升级之间的现实状况、影响因素及各省产业升级差异的原因。影响产业升级的原因诸多,本文侧重研究出口品技术含量提升对产业转型升级的影响。在我国东中西部地区比较优势不同的基础上,对我国东中西部31个省市、自治区的出口品技术含量进行测算。当相对出口品技术含量发生变化时,用相对就业率变动来表征劳动力流动,用第二产业的相对产值的增加幅度低于第三产业的相对产值增加幅度来表征产业升级。通过对“入世”以来我国东中西部各省的相对出口品技术含量变化,东中西部各省相对就业率与东中西部各省第二第三产业相对产值和相对就业率的统计分析,发现两者者之间存在明显的关联性。本文采用了我国31个省市、自治区的数据(2002—2008年),使用系统GMM计量分析方法,来验证出口品技术含量与产业转型升级之间的关联机制。实证结果发现二者之间存在明显的关联性,当出口品技术含量提升,第三产业产值也有较明显的提升。有基于此,本文提出进一步提升出口品技术含量,促进产业升级的对策建议。本文内容分为五部分：文章第一部分绪论主要阐述选题背景,研究意义以及国内外文献研究综述,对文章的研究方法、研究框架、创新论点以及难点进行阐述说明。第二部分从理论上分析出口品技术含量的提升与产业转型升级之间的关联机制。第三部分为论文的统计部分,用统计的方法验证出口品技术含量与产业转型升级之间的关联机制。第四部分为论文的计量估计部分,对我国东中西部各省出口品技术含量进行测度,运用面板数据模型进行回归分析。基于计量分析结果,讨论了出口品技术含量的提升与产业转型升级之间的关联机制。第五部分根据论文的研究结论提出政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Industrial transformation and upgrading is the key problem of our country’s12th five-year plan. At present, the main type of industries in our country lies in the second industry, especially labor resource intensive industry which accounts for a large proportion, is located in the low-end of the global value chain (GVC). The preliminary results have shown that the upgrading of export product technology steadily promotes to increase industrial transformation and upgrading, and at the same time, leads to the flow of labor between industries and regions. As a result, what is the relationship between exports technology improvement and industrial upgrading mechanism? This can be proved by both the relative theories and China’s reality. Research concerning this relationship thus has important theoretical and policy implications.According to the theoretical framework of new economic geography, based on cp model to research the relationship between exports technology improvement and industrial upgrading mechanism.the theoretical research indicates that exports technology improvement can increase the wage of workers,so it can lead to the flow of workers,at last,it leads to industrial upgrading, this article will discuss the reality of industry upgrading in eastern, middle and western provinces in our country, the influential factors and reasons causing the gaps among different provinces in industrial upgrading.Despite various factors can affect the industrial upgrading, this research focuses on the effect of exports technology. Based on the comparative advantages, the research measures the technology of export products of31provinces including eastern, middle and western parts of China. Labor mobility in the paper is characterized by the relative employment rates among provinces; When factors change, increase of industrial upgrading is featured by the relative output low value-added industry and high value-added one. Through the analysis of the relative export technical change in eastern, middle and western provinces in our country since China’s entering the WTO, and the east to the Midwest provinces relative employment and east Midwest provinces relative to the second and third industry production value and statistical analysis of relative employment, it is found that obvious correlation exists between the factors, in that the province which have relative high technology in export products also has more obvious improvement in the third industry.This article adopts the data of31provinces, including cities and autonomous regions in China (2002-2008), respectively using static panel and dynamic panel system GMM method, to verify the association between elevated levels of export products’technology and industrial upgrading mechanism. The empirical results find that there is obvious correlation between them, that is to say, the province which have relative high technology in export products also has more obvious improvement in the relative output of the third industry. Based on this, this article further puts forward suggestions on enhancing export technology and promoting industrial upgrading.This article consists of five charters: the first part is the introduction of the research background, research purposes and literature review, illustrating the research methods, framework and controversial viewpoints. The second part theoretically analyses the relationship between the improvement of export technology and industrial upgrading. The third part deals with the data, further verifying the relationship mentioned above through statistics. The fourth part is the empirical charter, measuring the export technology in eastern, middle and western provinces in China through the regression analysis by the panel data model. The relationship is confirmed by this empirical result. The fifth part puts forward policy suggestions on the conclusion of the study.更多还原