基于实物期权理论的高新技术企业EVA估值方法优化研究

【作者】 刘凤林；

【导师】 张学文；

【作者基本信息】 上海财经大学 ， 公共管理 资产评估， 2019， 硕士

【副题名】以科大讯飞为例

【摘要】 目前我国股票市场尚未成熟,特别是中小板、科创板上市的科技公司,存在一些企业价值高估或者低估的情况,有一套专门针对高新技术企业的评估方法可以推动企业并购成功率,提高IPO定价的合理性,指导个人和机构投资者理性投资,这不仅有利于推动评估行业的向前发展,也有利于规范股票市场,保证高新技术企业能够顺利发展壮大。然而目前我国评估行业并未针对成长期高新技术企业运营的实际情况,给出合理而精确的评估办法,尤其是很多处于高速成长期的技术型企业,大量风险投资项目和无形资产的存在,使其成长潜力和潜在收益难以估量。在对国内外文献的梳理中,我们发现在评估高新技术企业的企业价值时,传统的评估方法在实际应用中的效果并不理想,更先进评估方法如EVA法,实物期权模型等更加受到青睐。成长期高新技术企业估值方法的更新与升级,成为学界研究的重点议题。本文基于实物期权理论对高新技术企业的EVA估值方法进行了优化研究,重新构建了EVA/B-S组合模型作为成长期企业价值评估的核心模型。在组合模型的构建过程中,本文分析了成长期高新技术企业的生命周期、企业特征、价值内涵等指标,将高新技术企业的企业价值分为现有价值(企业现资产条件下盈利能力)和未来价值(投资资产项目潜在收益价值),因为未来价值存在高收益高风险的特点,传统的评估方法在评估过程中会低估企业的未来价值,为了能够全面合理的对高新技术企业价值进行评估,本文利用EVA模型评估其现有价值,利用B-S模型评估其未来价值,将高新技术企业的投资项目作为实物期权处理,解决了传统方法无法评估企业未来潜在收益的难题,并且对传统的EVA模型进行了调整,根据高新技术企业的特点,添加了对于市场拓展费、人员培训费和非经常性损益的分析,将市场拓展费和人员培训费进行资本化处理,剔除了非经常性损益对于净营业利润的影响,使EVA-B/S组合模型更加符合成长期高新技术企业的特征。最后本文采用了案例分析的方法,分析对象为科大讯飞股份有限公司,科大讯飞股份有限公司为信息技术行业的龙头企业,上市时间长,财务数据完善,基本面良好,适合作为案例进行分析。通过对成长期高新技术企业价值的划分,本文运用EVA/B-S模型对科大讯飞股份有限公司的企业价值进行了评估,并利用传统评估方法中应用较为广泛的现金流量法作为对比,将所得结果与股票市值比对分析之后发现,目前市场对科大讯飞没有明显的低估或者高估。最后,经过理论和案例分析,本文认为基于实物期权理论对高新技术企业EVA估值方法进行优化得出的EVA/B-S模型是可行的,适合高新技术企业的价值评估。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present,China’s stock market is not yet mature.Especially for the technology companies listed on SMEs and SCM boards,there are some cases of overvaluation or undervaluation of enterprise value.A set of evaluation methods specifically for high-tech enterprises can promote the success rate of M&A,improve the rationality of IPO pricing,and guide individual and institutional investors.Rational investment is not only conducive to promoting the development of the evaluation industry,but also conducive to standardizing the stock market and ensuring the smooth development and growth of high-tech enterprises.However,at present,the evaluation industry in our country has not given a reasonable and accurate evaluation method according to the actual situation of the operation of the growing high-tech enterprises.Especially for many high-speed growth technology-based enterprises,the existence of a large number of venture capital projects and intangible assets makes its growth potential and potential benefits difficult to estimate.In reviewing the literature at home and abroad,we find that when evaluating the value of high-tech enterprises,the effect of traditional evaluation methods in practical application is not ideal,and more advanced evaluation methods such as EVA method,real option model are more popular.The renewal and upgrading of high-tech valuation methods in the growth period has become a key issue in academic research.Based on the real option theory,this paper optimizes the valuation method of EVA for high-tech enterprises,and rebuilds the EVA/B-S portfolio model as the core model of value evaluation for growing enterprises.In the process of constructing the portfolio model,this paper analyses the life cycle,enterprise characteristics and value connotation of the growing high-tech enterprises,and divides the enterprise value of the high-tech enterprises into the existing value(profitability under the condition of the present assets of the enterprises)and the future value(potential income value of the investment assets project).In order to evaluate the value of high-tech enterprises comprehensively and reasonably,this paper uses EVA model to evaluate its current value,uses B-S model to evaluate its future value,and uses B-S model to evaluate its future value.The investment project is treated as real option,which solves the problem that the traditional method can not evaluate the potential profits of enterprises in the future,and adjusts the traditional EVA model.According to the characteristics of high-tech enterprises,it adds the analysis of market development fee,personnel training fee and non-recurring profit and loss,and makes market development fee and personnel The capitalization of training fees eliminates the impact of non-recurrent gains and losses on business profits,making the EVA-B/S combination model more in line with the characteristics of the growing high-tech enterprises.Finally,this paper uses the method of case analysis.The object of analysis is IFLYTEK Co.,Ltd.and IFLYTEK Co.,Ltd.is the leading enterprise in the information technology industry.It has a long listing time,perfect financial data and good fundamentals.It is suitable for case analysis.Through dividing the value of high-tech enterprises in the growing period,this paper evaluates the value of the company by using the EVA/B-S model,and compares the results with the stock market value by using the cash flow method which is widely used in the traditional evaluation method.IFLYTEK Co.,Ltd.did not underestimate or overestimate it.Finally,through theoretical and case analysis,this paper argues that the EVA/B-S model based on real option theory is feasible and suitable for the valuation of high-tech enterprises.更多还原