【作者】 张悦；

【导师】 曹阳；

【作者基本信息】 华中师范大学 ， 金融学， 2020， 硕士

【副题名】基于CHFS2017实证分析

【摘要】 改革开放以来,我国经济保持高速增长趋势,城乡居民收入稳步提高,生活水平显著改善,金融市场日益繁荣。在人口老龄化和新生育政策的背景下,少儿人口占比下降、老年人口占比上升和家庭规模缩小,使得中国的家庭人口结构发生了重大变化。家庭金融作为与资产定价、公司金融并列的金融学研究领域,家庭金融资产的选择成为国内外学者的研究热点。本文从家庭人口结构视角,具体以少儿人口占比、老年人口占比和家庭规模作为衡量家庭人口结构的替代变量,探索其对风险性金融资产的参与概率和配置比例的影响。本文以家庭人口结构对风险性金融资产选择的影响为研究主题,在梳理总结文献综述和现代资产组合理论、生命周期理论、预防性储蓄理论和流动性偏好理论的支撑下,提出了三个核心理论假说,并利用2017年中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS)(以下简称“CHFS2017”)考察家庭人口结构,即以少儿人口占比、老年人口占比和家庭规模三个解释变量对我国家庭风险性金融资产选择的影响,其次探究家庭人口结构对风险性金融资产选择的影响是否存在个体异质性,最后运用多种方法进行稳健性检验。经过实证检验,本文得出以下结论:一是家庭规模扩大,家庭财务负担加重,家庭形成的风险共担、收入共享机制减弱,存在不确定性风险增加,为了规避风险,家庭会减少对风险性金融资产的选择。二是少儿人口占比增加,家庭为给儿女提供更好的生活、学习条件,更注重在以后的消费和投资决策中考虑到资金的积累,家庭会减少对风险性金融资产的选择;三是老年人口占比增加,家庭面临较大的养老风险和不确定性,因此会购买一系列养老保险、增加储蓄等措施,间接减少家庭风险性金融资产的选择。针对本文的研究结论,为促进我国家庭金融健康平稳发展,主要提出以下三个建议:一是完善社会保障制度,降低家庭抚养压力;二是进行金融产品创新,提供针对性金融服务;三是增强金融知识学习,提升自身理财观念。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has maintained a trend of rapid growth,the income of urban and rural residents has steadily increased,the living standard has significantly improved significantly,and the financial market has become increasingly prosperous.Under the background of the aging population and the new birth policy,China’s family population structure has undergone major changes due to the decrease of the proportion of children,the increase of the proportion of the elderly and the shrinking of the family size.Family finance,as a financial research field,is parallel with asset pricing and corporate finance.From the perspective of family population structure,this paper takes the proportion of children’s population,the proportion of the elderly population and the family size as the substitution variables to measure the family population structure,and explores its influence on the participation probability and allocation ratio of risky financial assets.Based on the population of family structure on the influence of the risk of financial assets choice as the research subject,the comb summary of literature review and the modern portfolio theory,life cycle theory,the precautionary savings theory and the theory of liquidity preference theory,put forward three core theoretical hypothesis,and uses the 2017 China family financial survey data(CHFS)(hereinafter referred to as the "CHFS2017")to investigate the family population structure,namely to children population proportion,the elderly population is three explanatory variables and family size influence on our country family risk of financial assets choice,Secondly,it explores whether there is individual heterogeneity in the influence of household population structure on the selection of risky financial assets.Finally,it uses a variety of methods to conduct robustness test.After empirical test,this paper draws the following conclusions:first,the family scale expands,the financial burden of the family increases,the risk sharing of the family forms,the income sharing mechanism weakens,and the uncertainty risk increases.In order to avoid the risk,the family will reduce the choice of risky financial assets.Second,the proportion of children’s population increases.In order to provide better living and learning conditions for their children,families pay more attention to the accumulation of funds in future consumption and investment decisions,and families will reduce the choice of risky financial assets.Third,as the population proportion of the elderly increases,families are faced with greater pension risks and uncertainties,so they will buy a series of pension insurance,increase savings and other measures,and indirectly reduce the choice of family risky financial assets.According to the research conclusion of this paper,in order to promote the healthy and stable development of family finance in China,the following three Suggestions are put forward:First,to improve the social security system,reduce the pressure of family support;Second,to innovate financial products and provide targeted financial services;Third,enhance financial knowledge learning,improve their own concept of financial management.更多还原