【摘要】 为给在风险和碳排放不同程度影响下多式联运决策者提供较优的联运选择方案，分别从运输和中转两个角度分析构建联运过程中的风险评价指标体系，通过采用贝叶斯网络模型测算风险发生概率，进而定量分析得到风险成本。考虑双碳目标下多式联运碳排放条件，将多式联运过程中产生的碳排放内化为碳税成本。以此为基础，构建最小化物流成本、风险成本和碳税成本的集装箱多式联运路径优化模型。考虑到联运决策者差异化需求，确定相应目标因素的不同敏感程度和时间约束，设计混合算法进行求解。案例结果表明，可以根据决策者差异化需求灵活调整模型敏感度大小，为多式联运决策者提供较优的联运选择方案。更多还原

【Abstract】 To provide a better intermodal transport option for multi-modal transport decision-makers under different degrees of risk and carbon emissions,the risk in the process of intermodal transport is analyzed from the perspective of transport and transit respectively to build a risk evaluation index system. The risk occurrence probability is calculated by using Bayesian network model, and then the risk cost is obtained through quantitative analysis.Considering the carbon emission conditions of multimodal transport under the dual carbon target, the carbon emissions generated in the multimodal transport process are internalized into the carbon tax cost. On this basis, a container multimodal transport route optimization model is constructed to minimize the logistics cost, risk cost and carbon tax cost. Considering the differentiated needs of the intermodal transport decision-makers, different sensitivity and time constraints of the corresponding target factors are determined, and a hybrid algorithm is designed to solve the problem. The case results show that the sensitivity of the model can be flexibly adjusted according to the different needs of the decision-makers, and provide a better intermodal transport option for the multi-modal transport decision-makers.更多还原